Questions about Figures

[hossgnat]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 wrote:

>
> Its gonna be a very intersting Derby. With Rockport Harbor and
> Going Wild apparently out its looking like a possible 1985
> race. Right now theres two speedy types, unless Spanish
> Chestnut enters. If I was Tabor I\'d have to run him.  

How quickly the complexion of the race has apparently changed.  Tabor\'s potential decision to run a rabbit without any other pretence but to soften up the speed would add quite the interesting wrinkle.  And I do agree with you, he should do so, why not, the strategy has worked once already.

[Silver Charm]

>I suppose Going Wild validated his Wood form

Validated his Wood non-form. You think he ran better yesterday.

Sort it Out spent all winter with these types.

http://www.drf.com/row/charts/05whirlaway_chart.pdf

Bellamy Road beat this crew 20+. Doubt Sort it Out ran better yesterday than his previous top of 3, in the Whirlaway.

Or that Coin Silver moved up much, he just beat a rotten group.

[jimbo66]

Davidrex,

As for Smarty Jones last year, congrats if you used the T-Graph figures to nail the winner.  I was just starting to use the figures then and I bought the seminar to try and understand the figures and methodology.  Jerry did NOT select Smarty Jones, he called Lion Heart/The Cliff\'s Edge 50% to win the race and also liked Read the Footnotes.  In hindsight, this was really ironic.  Jerry and T-Graph were well ahead of the curve in realizing Smarty Jones was an incredibly fast horse.  However, they thought he was too fast and would bounce in the Derby.  So, having the information that he was so fast, did NOT help most sheets players, as he was a bet against in the Derby on T-Graph and Rags.  

I suspect you have a similar situation this year.  Bellamy Road at -5 on T-Graph is now 10 points of development off his 2 year old top, even with 4 weeks of rest, he probably is a bet against.  Len has already said so on his board.  Bandini ran a new top by over 6 points, 3 weeks before the derby, which probably makes him a bet against as well, for sheets players.  

I find this ironinc again, especially in the case of BAndini.  Sheets players who believe teh figures, KNOW that Bandini is much faster than the rest of the public who see thke 103 beyer.  Yet, methodology prevents most of them from betting on him off the new huge top, 3 weeks before the derby.

This is less true for Bellamy Road though, because he got a huge Beyer figure also (120).  The \"edge\" in using Sheets for Bellamy Road, is that the race before the Wood is also very fast on the Sheets, a slightly negative number.  So, although it was nowhere near the Wood number, it was very fast adn shows that he has run 2 very fast races.  If you look at the DRF on Bellamy Road, the wood really looks like an abberation, going from a 96 beyer to a 120, so many people might dismiss him as freaking in the Wood, and not necessarily that fast.  Sheets players know Beyer missed the Gulfstream race by 8-10 points and so he really should have a line of 105 beyer to 120, which looks more consistent and fast.

[jimbo66]

How the results of the Lexington validate anything about the Wood (or BlueGrass) or any race, is beyond me.  

Going Wild ran up the track in the Wood and also up the track in the Lexington.  How does that validiate anything?

Sort it Out didn\'t run in the Wood or the BlueGrass, so how does his race validate anything?

?

[Silver Charm]

Jimbo as you stated you are new to TG so you are still learning.

Read and study more. Post less. You will catch on.

Look for me at the Heat game. Gotta go.

[jimbo66]

SC,

Stupid post.  

There is no correlation between the races.  You are dead wrong.

Stick to basketball.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- as I recall, I said it was extremely likely that one of 4 horses would win last year, and two ran 1-2. I did think SJ was shaky off the 0-2 huge efforts.

As for Bellamy Road, if \"Sheets\" means Ragozin, he has his second back as a 4, not a zero-- we have it neg 1/4. I\'m not ready to offer opinions on this horse or the race yet (especially until I find out more about the new testing and security program), but three things-- first, a backward move and 3 weeks rest after a series of efforts is not a forward move, 4 weeks rest, 2 starts for the year. Second, it\'s all percentages-- I was all over horses with very similar figures and patterns two years in a row-- the first was the Pletcher front runner who ended up being a grass horse (forget his name, I blocked it out because I think I\'ve lost on him 10 times). The one the next year was War Emblem.

Third-- we make decisions by analyzing past events. And now we have the additional information of how SJ ran.

SC-- it\'s not the Heat game, it\'s the Net game. I took 8-1 on this series.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

That would be Balto Star, who I worked into several bets as well. I think I bet him in the Belmont that year...lol

So Bellamy is a Negative 5. Well, why not. Sounds like there may be an implication that Nicky may be onto the new mojo.

To me the issue is how the super juiced horses bounce or don\'t bounce. We have to look only at the modern era, 2002 on, and only the Super juicers. Thats the \"sample on speed\" and it is the only sample that matters. For Frankel at least, the conclusion is his dont move much. Personally I think thats got something to do with giving High Limit credit for a 1 last.

Strange days indeed.

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

Yes, you did say one of four horses was likely to win, but I didn\'t make up the part about \"50% chance either Lion Heart or Cliff\'s Edge wins the race\".  You know if you cashed or not on the Derby (or any of last year\'s Triple Crown races).  Seems to me that you and Len were both in print before the Preakness and Belmont with anti-Smarty predictions.  I could be wrong about that, but I don\'t think so.

When I said \"sheets\" I meant your figures, not Len\'s.  Poor choice of words.  i still call both figures \"sheets\".  Haven\'t bought his product yet, only hear the figures from another poster on this board who uses both yours and his.

Can you explain what you mean by \"first, a backward move and 3 weeks rest after a series of efforts is not a forward move, 4 weeks rest, 2 starts for the year\".

Whose backward move and three weeks rest?  Don\'t follow you.

CTC,

\"The questionable year was the Millineum wind year.\"

I had Millenium Wind in that race.

He earned that figure with a loose lead on an easy pace on a track where speed was certainly more than OK. His chances of duplicating that figure in the Derby were somewhere between zero and none. He was the first horse I tossed out.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- did not cash the Derby, almost shot myself after the Preakness when I saw what the pick 4 paid.

SJ hit the big one 6 weeks out and moved backward in the Ark Derby, so he was coming in off a backward move. If you look at the past Derby winners you will see that only a small percentage have done this. The Derby was his 4th start in 9 weeks. Other questions aside (and there are many), BR is coming off a forward move, and making only his 3rd start of the year, and 3rd in 8 weeks.

[jimbo66]

Thanks Jerry.  I realized after I posted you were referring to SJ.  WHen I first read it, I thought you were referring to somebody in THIS YEAR\'s Derby.

I empathize with your Preakness pick 4.  I had similar problem with Derby pick-4.  I threw out Azeri and singled Pat Day on somebody in the 7 furlong Derby day race.  I had $15 pick fours live to 5 horses in the Derby. Lionheart, The Cliff\'s Edge, Pollard\'s Vision, Tapit and Read the Footnotes.  Paid $2000 with Smarty, the logical winner.  Paid over 4 times parlay....

To make it worse, wife called me at Meadowlands 2 minutes before Derby and said \"I hope you bet this Smarty Jones, he can\'t lose.  Everybody on TV says he will love the wet track\"

Had to hear for weeks how stupid I am.  Redboarding on this board can be annoying, having your wife redboard you is beyond that.........

The punch line is that if I had been using your figures for a little while before the Derby, I would have had to use Smarty going 5 deep.  I didn\'t believe your figures for him, having relied on Beyer figures for 20 years or so......

Oh well.

[TGJB]

The best wife betting story belongs to HP, who posts here. A few years ago his wife took a fast look at the Belmont sheets and gave him a bet to put in on the McPeek horse that won. HP took a fast look, and booked the bet. After the horse paid $900 or whatever, I caught a ride back from the track with him, and got to hear the phone conversation where he gave her the result. \"Honey, the good news is that your horse won...\"

[Wrongly]

Sarava.  That hillarious, I feel his pain.

[davidrex]

     Jimbo--good morning,

     please let me reiterate my gambling experiences w/t.graph.

     I\'m not aware of who picked what last year but I know brown in his combative nature refused to be swayed by outside influences and gave s. j. THE#!

     humans that co-exist in a like industry tend to think and act in a like manner,NOT Brown.


     As ragozin said in one of the old tapes[the missing one]Ilike to use\" a seat of the pants\" mentality for using Jerry\'s figs.