Questions about Figures

[Saddlecloth]

they way that closing argument and sun king were laboring the answer is \"yes\".
TGJB wrote:

>
>
> Look at it this way-- if Bandini wasn\'t in the race, what would
> it have looked like? Would you really think HL beat the others
> in that field by 3 lengths while going backward?
>
>

[miff]

No JB,

Much better not to make assumptions.If every horse ran way off their top, so be it!! It happens. You are absolutely changing your methods from the past 20 yrs which may account for why anything with 4 legs running 3w, 3w runs negative figs.

I absolutely believe Sun King did not move forward(maybe paired because of ground) And really, to suggest that HL paired is not  a debate I want to have.

Bandini definitely moved forward but minus 3.3 seems a couple of points too much.

No argument, please, why is it not possible that 3yr grade 1\'s threw a clunker(I note your condesending comment, I\'m as aware as YOU that doesn\'t happen often)

[TGJB]

No argument? Not likely.

It has ALWAYS been true that the only way to measure track speed is by how fast the horses run over it. And the question is not whether a GI 3yo ran a clunker-- it\'s whether a GROUP of them did. Those kind of horses run a paired or new top at least half the time at this time in their life-- work out the percentage chance of 6 of 7 not doing so at the same time. When you make those figures 2 or more points off their tops the percentages get prohibitive, and that\'s not even taking into account the other races. Yes, you can cut it loose if there is a reason to do so-- but all logic says otherwise. Big negatives are a distraction, but that race is right.

[miff]

\"Big negatives are a distraction, but that race is right.\"

TGJB


In your opinion, others differ, big time.

miff,

I view Bandini, High Limit, and Closing Argument as all having running quite well in the BG (especially Bandini). No matter how you get to that view, I am hoping everyone else thinks it was a slow mediocre race. I don\'t like HL in the Derby because of Bellamy Road, but I won\'t have any problem betting Bandini off this race if the price is reasonable.

They came home quite slow and visually weren\'t too impressive, but the middle part of that race was quite fast. After a slow opening quarter, they reached 6F in a quick time. It\'s not surprising to me that they slowed down late.

[Silver Charm]

>In your opinion, others differ, big time.

Miff could you please mention some names so we can look at their qualifications.

So far I have heard one contarian argument. The figures for Bellamy Road and Bandini were too fast and almost the entire fields in both races collapsed and backed up. Afleet Alex may also be incleded in that discussion, not really sure.

Regardless, this means two or three spring 3YO\'s held form or slightly moved forward and the other 12-15 went backwards.

Is that correct? Seems a little odd doesn\'t it.

[miff]

Class,

No argument on Bandini, a strong performance and nice forward move.

I thought HL had a perfect stalking trip(never hooked or engaged) took over from a stopping SC and immediately got run over by Bandini while beaing in thru the lane and brushing the rail while showing no resistence  to Bandini. The pace stalked by HL was NOT that hot to excuse his horrific last 3/8ths.We\'re supposed to be talking about a top 3yr old, trained by Frankel, rested and fast going in.Very common performance IMO,given his trip.

CL clunked up to me.Consolidator and Sun King appeared to never grab the bit the entire race.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The Wood was entirely off form even under the current Tgraph theory the only horse to improve was Bellamy Road. If you hold a contrarian view there its really a matter of how much the others regressed because they certainly regressed.

The other race is a 7 entry race. Toss the last place finisher on bounce. Consolidator obviously was as off as Going Wild (Though I can see some reasons why consolidator may have slipped) Closing Argument was entered on a layoff and foot issue and had some positioning issues. High Limit had to look a superior pace horse in the rump for the first time in his life. Keeneland is notorious for odd results. Even Jerry struggles with wagers there. Sun King had not run an exceptional race at two turns. He\'d been a one turn wonder. What is so hard to accept about those observations?

miff,

I don\'t like High Limit going 10F with a horse like BR in the race (and perhaps a few other quality speeds). I guess I didn\'t think his LA Derby was that great to begin with. So this performance was more or less in line with my expectations for a lightly raced 3YO horse from Frankel.



Post Edited (04-23-05 16:47)

[Silver Charm]

It is a contrarian argument to the contrarian argument. I have heard for two weeks now that Bellamy Road did not run as fast as the Top Figure guys said he did and the entire field collapsed and regressed.

Lots of those were inner dirt types, plausible argument.

Now the Blue Grass, which on paper before the race was run was considered the best prep, we are hearing pretty much the same argument put forth. Bandini moved forward, Closing Argument maybe a little, and all the others collpased.

Herds of threes year olds are collapsing off form, trained by Lukas, Frankel, Zito, Biancone, and Shug as they prep towards the most important race of their lives.

Brown, Beyer and Friedman seem to be in pretty tight agreement (Beyer doesn\'t figure in ground loss in the BG) on these races.

Curious who the others are who disagree big-time and how their credentials stack up against those three. Doesn\'t mean the others are wrong.

\"Brown, Beyer and Friedman seem to be in pretty tight agreement (Beyer doesn\'t figure in ground loss in the BG) on these races\"

Would Beyer\'s 103 for Bandini equal the TG figure if ground loss was added in?

I don\'t think so based on the figures for High Limit and Closing Argument.

[miff]

Silver wrote

\"Regardless, this means two or three spring 3YO\'s held form or slightly moved forward and the other 12-15 went backwards.\"


What seems more odd to me,is the other side of the coin in that Bellamy Road is the fastest three year old ever(from being nothing as a two year old) and Bandini is as fast as Smarty already.And yes, I think that a number of 3yr olds X\'d in the BG.

I think AA is legit based on giving him a sick excuse in his prior start and given his two year old figs.

To answer specifically on Bandini, Beyer doesn\'t agree, Fig Geeks (razor sharp bettors/fig makers) don\'t agree,Equiform don\'t agree and I don\'t agree (i\'ve only watched 100k+ races in 35-40years and make est figs using my TG sheets after taping and viewing  the card.)

Lastly, the Zito barn does NOT think that SK improved in his last start.Your drift is that TG is the only solid source. I know for a fact that it is only one of several solid sources available today.

[Silver Charm]

I will leave that up to others to decide.

Three wide both turns and 122 pounds might turn that 103 into about a 112. Just guessing what is a minus 3 and change, around a 115.

This isn\'t my bag and with respect to others who do their own figs state your opinion when the mutual windows open on Derby Day.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Silver Charm wrote:

> I have
> heard for two weeks now that Bellamy Road did not run as fast
> as the Top Figure guys said he did and the entire field
> collapsed and regressed.

Even under TGraph Survivalist scored a four with some wide I believe. That makes Scrappy a pretty good 5-6. The Wood did collapse it is a question of how much.

> Now the Blue Grass, which on paper before the race was run was
> considered the best prep, we are hearing pretty much the same
> argument put forth. Bandini moved forward, Closing Argument
> maybe a little, and all the others collpased.

I think the argument is similar. Consolidator obviously collapsed. Sun King I\'m less sure of, but he certainly didn\'t break well and get right into it like he would have had to in order to be a factor that day. High Limit was a mess late and there was no one to pick him up because they were staggering as badly behind him.

Does anyone really think High Limit is gonna hit the board in the Derby? You\'re calling this horse a pair off the Bluegrass. Well a pair looks like a good position to move forward. He\'s gonna face a pace issue, but if he was firing a legitimate 1 last, the pace issue is gonna be of little consequence correct? and he should finish as resolutely. Who thinks he hits the top 4 Derby day...seriously?

Haven\'t we established that the extra sixteeth didn\'t impact his figure? Who is gonna worry about another 8th. He was holding them safe right? ( I reserve the right to bet high limit if I conclude post draw he will have the lead)



Post Edited (04-23-05 17:22)

[TGJB]

Last year SMARTY JONES was just Smarty Jones when he won the Rebel, with Purge and Holthus\' horse not that far behind him. Remember?

The rest of it I answered already.