Questions about Figures

[miff]

Not sure I get what you are saying. SJ had  better prior credentials/figs at two and early three than Bandini or Bellamy Road if memory serves me.

[TGJB]

What I\'m saying is, it was only the Rebel, he didn\'t win by 17 lengths, and the horses behind him had never won a stake to that point, I believe. I gave him the best number ever run by a 3yo, Beyer gave him about what he gave Bandini, or thereabouts.

For the record-- Beyer had the La Derby too fast, but just for the winner (ground loss). He has this too slow in part for the same reason, and probably in part for the same reason he robbed SJ last year. None of us are making figures based on visual impressions-- we do it based on the figures of the horses. Ragozin gets a lot of them wrong, as I have pointed out often-- but the fact that he and I agree should tell you that a) the track stayed the same speed, and b) it\'s right.

In simplest terms-- you can pull a race out because it\'s clear another variant gives it a MORE logical result. But if you pull this race away from the day, you get LESS likely scenarios-- as I pointed out, the percentage chance of 6 out of 7 3yos in a GI not running back to their previous tops is very small.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

All I can say is that I knew Smarty\'s Rebel was hot the instant I saw it. He rated. He went wide and he was moving incredibly late. As Powerful as I\'ve ever seen a horse move late. Granted it was only 8.5 marks.
I did see good late strength in BR. I did not see it in Bandini.

I also thought that Smarty\'s raw time stood out on Rebel Day. I do not feel similarly about Bandini\'s Bluegrass. BR\'s Wood is not a standout on the basis of the 7th race. Nor some of the other races in my opinion. However it certainly stands above the Bluegrass. That said, I like Bandini better.

Its gonna be a very intersting Derby. With Rockport Harbor and Going Wild apparently out its looking like a possible 1985 race. Right now theres two speedy types, unless Spanish Chestnut enters. If I was Tabor I\'d have to run him.  I suppose we can expect Frankel to negotiate the pace with Zito for this one now.

[davidrex]

     last year brown scored big time w/smarty.had the owner of oaklawn not saved with large wager it would have been an even bigger coup for t/graph.

     now jerry steps up again in high profile race willing to take his lumps if it doesn\'t pan out.

     if your as much a gambler as a handicapper the thought of wagering on information from someone thinking outside the traditional ledge of thought is where your opportunity lies.

     needless to say i will cut this guy alot of slack if only for using a seperate [and often superior] set of criteria for his figures.

     is it more important to attempt breaking down races analytically or using said information to GET THE CASH?

[Silver Charm]

I think the results of the Lexington yesterday validates the Wood figure.

[SoCalMan2]

I tend to agree.  When speed figures come out and appear to be a mismatch compared with what most observers saw, that is the exact edge I am looking for when I pay my money for the figures.  The more outlandish it seems the happier I get because that is the way you can really get some nice prices.

I know that sometimes I get frustrated if the number does not pan out, but dem is da brakes.  On balance, these sort of numbers produce a great deal more profit than they do loss.

Also, I have been watching horseraces carefully since 1976.  I believe I have better than average visual skills for a horseplayer.  Nevertheless, whenever I trust my visual skills, I am far more let down by them than I ever am by speed figures.

I realize that this sounds like the confessions of a Kool Ade drinker, but

[miff]

Davidrex said

\"last year brown scored big time w/smarty.had the owner of oaklawn not saved with large wager it would have been an even bigger coup for t/graph\"


Say what, TG dogma guys had SJ sitting on 0 2 X( more pure voodoo) Who nailed what??

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The problem is Bandini makes sense to most of those involved in this game. There is little figure wagering edge even if you give full faith and credit to a Neg. 3.1

You have a six length win. Pletcher Training. A FOY 2nd and A Bluegrass 1st. Even with a Zed this is the best horse Pletcher has brought to the Derby. (I\'m not sure what Coin Silver\'s Number is yet).

I\'m convinced however the only way to give Bandini the figure assigned is to do so upon theory and the moveable grid. I\'ve seen far too many odd results at Keeneland to say with certainty the race can be scored as indicated. That said, I do like Bandini now, but its not on the basis of a -3.1

However, if it is a legitimate neg. 3.1 you have a 7 point top on three weeks rest. An interesting dilemma.

To my mind, if Bandini has a weakness it may be in the the closing ability. Its the last 8th in the Derby that the chinks in the armor may make themselves apparent. If he ran a legit -3.1 (and can repeat), you have less to worry about there. If he ran a little less than that it becomes an issue.

The above considerations apply similarly to Bellamy Road. Though I\'m not sure how the results of the Lexington validates the Wood figure.



Post Edited (04-24-05 11:24)

[richiebee]

No, Chuckles, SC said the results of the LEXINGTON validated the Wood. I\'m confused.

Nobody wants wet on May 7, and wet at every track is different, but T Pletch has 2 who
loved off going recently -- Flower Alley and Coinsilver.

If Galloping Grocer dominates NYBs in the Stallion Series/ Times Square dash today, do they try to wheel him right back in the Derby in 13 days, 1 hour and 43 minutes?



Post Edited (04-24-05 11:39)

[Silver Charm]

>No, Chuckles, SC said the results of the LEXINGTON validated the Wood. I\'m confused

Confused by Chuckles or me. I\'m confused

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Actually, I said Bluegrass, noted my typo and corrected it, even before seeing Richibees post.

But, the issue is, how does the Lexington Result validate the Wood?

I\'ve been perusing TGraphs Wood and Bluegrass numbers for the past several years and they\'ve held up nicely. Especially in 2003 with Peace Rules. However, Peace had established a foundation of 0\'s so going back to them was logical. I did see a figure for Brancusi that was never seen again. TGraph looks to have nailed Harlans Holiday as well and horses like Conagree and Monarchos.

The millineum wind/songandaprayer figures though give me pause and to my mind both Bellamy and Bandini are similarly positioned. I\'m going to refer to them as \"The Killer B\'s\"

I\'m very skeptical about the Killer B\'s. Both earned high figs without a foundation of high figs and without standout races on the card in my opinion, that is troublesome. I\'ll continue my research. In the end I may conclude TGraph has to be deferred to. I\'m not sure where this is goin.



Post Edited (04-24-05 11:56)

[richiebee]

What is the Wood/ Lex connection?

[Silver Charm]

Going Wild and Sort it Out.

[albany]

I suppose Going Wild validated his Wood form. Beyond that, I\'m at a loss.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGraph was really solid on the Bluegrass. Especially in 99.

The questionable year was the Millineum wind year. Really hard to say they got Brancusi wrong when all the evidence says they got peace rules right that year.

Tough stuff