Questions about Figures

[Bally Ache]

Okay, I can\'t resist bragging here.  Not only did I have Sarava to win, I had the exacta ($2500+).  The other horse was a Frankel horse who had disappointed in the Derby & Preakness.  He was about 15-1.

From the quarter pole home these two were light years ahead of the rest of the field so the only question was whether I would cash the 70-1 win bet & get the bigger exacta.

Doesn\'t happen nearly often enough.

[jbelfior]

I do not envy anyone who has to make figures over that horsebleep track called KEENLAND. It\'s a nice looking place with a nice turf course. That\'s where the positive statements end.

Whether BANDINI ran a negative 3 or a positive 3 does not matter since the race will have no bearing on the Derby outcome except to confuse you more if you consider it as important.

Anyone remember the last impressive BG winner who wore the roses? I\'ll bet there are just as many mediocre efforts that translated into Derby wins.

As for my opinion on TGJB #\'s....in just comparing the BG to the Fla. Derby, anyone on this board think that BANDINI would have beat HIGH FLY by 6 lengths??



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[HP]

Congratulations Bally Ache.  That was Medaglia D\'Oro I believe.

I didn\'t really \"book the bet\", I just spaced out and forgot about my wife\'s \"$10 win\" (I was busy making my own losing bets (Perfect Drift (?!)) until after the pools closed.  I admit I thought I was okay when the race started, and Sva and M D\'Oro dingdonged until the last furlong and then I knew I was screwed.  

The phone call was good though.  

HP

[Silver Charm]

>then I knew I was screwed.

And that was the only time that happened to you on that day.

>As for my opinion on TGJB #\'s....in just comparing the BG to the Fla. Derby, anyone on this board think that BANDINI would have beat HIGH FLY by 6 lengths??

Lot of people thought if Bandini had run a little more professionally in the FOY he would have beaten him a couple of lengths that day.

If Bandini topped out on BG day like Skip Away did a few years ago the answer is....

YES

[SoCalMan2]

Whatever year it was, there was a group of us sitting in the Sports Palace at Laurel one Breeder\'s Cup Day.  About 10 minutes before the Classic, one of the guy\'s wife calls (he was the only guy with a cell phone which were not as widespread then) and begs him to bet Arcangues because she loves Jerry Bailey. He says no way, the horse has no chance and he is not going to throw away good money. For the next 10 minutes, we are hooting and hollering about her pick and complaining to ourselves that the field looked so weak that it was hard to figure out who would be there (but we were sure it would not be Arcangues).  In retrospect, it was obvious that it was it was a good race to look for an unknown.  I learned a good lesson that day (which I have applied a lot regarding the relative strength of a field when evaluating an unknown), but I think my friend may have had a bit of a rougher lesson.  (I just heard a lot of \"yes\'s and \'uh huh\'s when the inevitable call came in).

[miff]

Silver Charm said,

\"Lot of people thought if Bandini had run a little more professionally in the FOY he would have beaten him a couple of lengths that day\"


Who are \"lot of people\" and what are their credentials? I know \"lot of people\" and they don\'t think that Bandini would have beaten High Fly by a couple of lenghts that day, no matter what. Could have been closer,maybe, if he handled the lead change better on the last turn.

[jbelfior]

Silver Charm--

BANDINI wasn\'t beating HIGH FLY that day. Whoever these \"lot\'s of people\" are, please let me know who they like in the Derby.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Silver Charm]

The betting public sent them both off at the about the same price.

One was a Stakes winner (High Fly) the other was a 9 length allowance winner (Bandini).

\"Lots of people\" was the betting public and they were perfectly correct because they confirmed it all \"visually\".

Its a \"fool\"-proof system correct.

[jbelfior]

SC--

Don\'t know about you...but I love all of the BANDINI hype.

How many have we seen come out of Keenland (including the Breeder\'s Cup preps) that crash and burn off of peak efforts or improve dramatically off of mediocre/regressing performances?

Let\'s see:
The off race @ KEE followed by big effort elsewhere:
SWALE, UNBRIDLED, SEA HERO, WINNING COLORS (BC Distaff), INSIDE INFORMATION (ditto), UNBRIDLED ELAINE (ditto); THUNDER GULCH, GATO DEL SOL.

The crash and burns: SKIP AWAY, MILLENIUM WIND, WILD SYN, HOLY BULL, THE CLIFF\'S EDGE,
HIGH YIELD, TAKE CHARGE LADY (BC Distaff...pattern here???)

Enough...hopefully you get the point.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jimbo66]

What does the price the betting public sends horses off at, have to do with \"who would have won the race that day\".

No sense SC.

Bellamy Road and Going Wild both went off at 5-2 in the Wood, so I guess a lot of people think that if Going Wild had run more professionally, he would have won that race.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Those are a nice group of horses to make your point JBelfior. The winners out of the Bluegrass seem back in time a bit. I would also add the caveat we are in the modern era now and something is carrying these horses faster and further than before and some of these guys aren\'t bouncing as often. Pletcher does bounce at times (Purge for instance) but his horses run on too. With an improving 3 yr old, in this era, I\'m very leary of a bounce. Right now I see Bandini about 3rd choice. I think the public is gonna favor Afleet Alex and Bellamy Road.

Just depending, Bandini looks to be in the garden stalk spot. Whether the pace is proper for him to be advantaged from there is currently being decided. This isn\'t a plug for him to win just yet, but I\'ll be very suprised if he doesnt show marvelously in the Derby. That said, I\'m not sold on his 10 mark ability.

I don\'t know how fast he is for sure and I\'m not willing to concede he\'s every bit as fast at TGraph states, but he just beat a field of good horses drawing off and when TGraph said Peace Rules Keeneland number was big in 2003, he ran to it in the Derby. Granted PR\'s Bluegrass was not a 7 pt. top. Bandini\'s race was visually honest. He did not beat up on a totally overmatched field from an easy winging lead like Bellamy did in the Wood.



Post Edited (04-25-05 11:47)

[jbelfior]

CtC2--

The Thoro # may indeed end up correct.

I just think Keenland is a quircky track and more horses end up floundering on it then prospering. That being said, if HL was out for a condition race and if no one else liked it that day and if SUN KING is the dog that I\'ve always thought he was ( I liken him to AP VALENTINE). I know....a lot of if\'s.


We\'ll soon find out. Until then, we have nothing better to do then talk about it.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think theres benefit to talking about it. Theres considerations to be weighed. Your post I responded to was a very good one in this regard.

Sun King bothers me a great deal. His efforts say one turn horse, but I\'m convinced Zito is high on him and that Zito generally knows his stock. Its a terrible dilemma. He was the ONLY horse to close appreciably in the Bluegrass and his breeding is very, very sneaky. He\'s a half to a pretty good horse named Traitor, who died in a barn fire. How horses die in barn fires in this day and age is beyond me. Still his top is a Zed and if TGraph is right on the others a Zed is looking light right now. However if he\'s a good one, is his TGraph pattern indicative of the fact he may be sitting on a good one?

 http://www.pedigreequery.com/sun+king5



Post Edited (04-25-05 12:20)

[miff]

Joe B said

\"The Thoro # may indeed end up correct\".


Joe,

I thought the Bandini BG TG# was too fast but noting he was 3W 3W it probably makes sense within the TG methodology.

Just curious as to how/when you think that fig will be confirmed or disputed.

[TGJB]

Miff-- the answer to that is to look at what everyone in a race does going forward-- it\'s not just about the winner, who in this case may or may not be ruined by the effort.