Questions about Figures

[miff]

JB,

Are you suggesting that if HL and Sun King go forward or backward in their future starts,that would be confirmation/non confirmation of the figs you gave them??

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I agree the wide helped Bandini\'s figure. But,I\'m absolutely convinced wide was the path that day.

He ran big and honest. They did send him to stay close. Pletcher is a smart trainer and knows that track. I lost track of its bias that day. They had to hit the top 2 spots to make the Derby. You gotta figure he was cranked to get the earnings and he ran a 7 point top on light foundation. He could bounce to the moon I suppose, as JBel initially said. Especially if it is a Neg. 3.1

The more I consider the more confused I get...lol

CtC



Post Edited (04-25-05 13:10)

[miff]

CtC,

I did not check with the bias guys for the BG day at Keeneland.Was there a bad inside?

I know the surface played kinda slowish that day,pegged by the variant computer geeks at minus120(6+ lenghts slower than par)

[TGJB]

We gave out a dead rail on BG day, those horses on the rail didn\'t run at all (take a look at the three routes we posted a couple of days ago). Bandini was actually in the 4 path, HL 3, CA 2 and 23, SK 432, 234-- only Mr Sword was on the rail in that race. He will be interesting coming back.

Miff-- I\'m saying you can look at later races for the whole field, not just the winner, since the relationships between the horses are fixed-- if you add to Bandini you have to add to the others. I look at later figures when I review a race (we all do), but I won\'t be reviewing this one-- all the routes were the same, and there is no other way to do the BG that makes any sense at all. Look at it this way-- if Bandini was not in the race, would you really want to have NO horses in a GI at least pair their top?

As an aside, this is EXACTLTY the situation I faced with War Emblem\'s race BEFORE the Ill Derby-- give him the big one, or have the race totally collapse? I gave it to him, and nobody else did-- it looked pretty good when he won the Ill Derby, and better when he won the Derby. Which is not to say Bandini will necessarily do the same-- Balto Star did not.

[miff]

JB,

\"Look at it this way-- if Bandini was not in the race, would you really want to have NO horses in a GI at least pair their top?\"


No,JB, I would never want any figure(paired top or otherwise)given without the horse earning it, GR 1 or not.

Check the tapes and isolate on High Limit a few times and then watch his prior race a few times keeping in mind ALL relevant adjustments, path, ground, pace(if you like) and trip.

Thats an\"ugly\"pair, IMO, as oppposed to the normal \"pretty\"pairs I have seen on TG for a long time.

[P.Eckhart]

Maybe an \'ugly\' pair because High Limit could be a short runner who actually ran an improved neg 1.25 one mile quit figure in Blue Grass, but collapses thereafter to your \'ugly\' pair.

[miff]

P.Eckhart,

The pace fig might be better for HL,but I was asking JB about the TG fig(whole number)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

High Limit is a quick horse that wants the lead. I think hes gonna be in front in the Derby unless Spanish Chestnut is entered, but the field and posts still need to be evaluated. Patterns have their place, but they are not the only consideration.

[TGJB]

Why do you assume a horse has to finish well to get a good figure? The theory on this stuff has always been that if they use energy early in a race they don\'t have it late, and vice versa-- if he had gone a more realistic 1:11:3 (still very fast over that track), he would have looked a lot better through the stretch to finish in the same time.

By the way, I was sitting at the same table as Kimmel watching the race. Afterward, I said \"came home slow\" He said, \"Are you kidding? They\'ve been coming home in 16 over this track\". Exaggeration, but you get the point.

My point is that it\'s not about pretty pairs or ugly pairs or about the way the races look-- it\'s about the data. You can\'t find another way to work with that race that makes more sense, even without the surrounding races tying in, which they do.

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

Not to change the general subject of this thread, but what do you think of High Limit now?  (without giving away too much of what will be in your seminar).

Before the BlueGrass, I read him as a horse who was very likely to move forward in that race and as such, a likely winner.  I came away from the race very disappointed in his performance visually.  Now, I see the figure and he \"paired up\".  He has now twice paired up his 2 year old top and I guess could be sitting on a big one, based on pattern.  

I for one, don\'t see it.  I can\'t see an improved race in the Derby, with a bigger field, and a potentially worse trip.  Frankel is adding blinkers now?  He hasn\'t moved the horse up from his 2 year old top and if you assume that a normal horse improves from 2 to 3, Frankel has actually caused the horse to regress since he took over the training.  I know he went from A. Dutrow to Frankel, so he went from one move up to another, but still, no move forward is concerning to me.

Also, the fact that no horse that has come out of the LA Derby to run well cannot be a positive sign.  Even if we give HL a pair up, you still have Vicarage running lousy, Kansas City Boy running lousy and Sort It Out running mediocre (don\'t know what you will give him for yesterday)

[miff]

JB,

I do not assume a horse has to finish well to get a good fig.I guess you did not visually review the races.As plainly as you made the pair, I didn\'t and I\'ve watched as many Live performances as you and I completetly understand all that goes into evaluating a horses performance.

I won\'t even go into why ALL wide runners got any CREDIT in your figs that day for being in the better paths(you said dead rail)

Why do you assume that 3yr\'s GR1 in April MUST pair their tops.Agree they should, but they don\'t have to.

[RICH]

You have 4 big jump-up horses running neg#\'s last out. Then you have a HIGH FLY and HIGH LIMIT running 1\'s, the rest look a few points slower than those 2. Out of the big 4 (assuming GG runs), AA looks the least suscepible to the big bounce vs his 2 yr top. Figure HL to run the 1, can he get a piece? why not? Can a couple of slower horses jump up 2-3 pts to get a piece? maybe. However, to me the most likely winners are those 6, anyone else would need a freaky top, coupled with 6 horses moving back.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- I go by numbers, not ran well, so I wouldn\'t buy any of that La Derby stuff under any circumstance, but as it happens Sort It Out has now run better TWICE than he did that day, and HL paired the number. KCB ran a 16 next time-- I\'m assuming you don\'t think the FG number was off by 12 points.

The way it works with this stuff is, you have to come up with an alternate theory for the figures for the race, like \"add 3\". Since Vicarage and KCB ran much worse and Sort It Out ran better, it\'s tough to see the alternate theory, and that\'s aside from how the race hung together figure-wise, or with the day. I won\'t be more solid on a figure this year than that one. Which is not to say those behind HL are world beaters-- nobody here was saying that.

As for HL-- this is a very complicated situation, because that pattern for Frankel is not that pattern for other trainers, and it\'s complicated further by the new \"restrictions\" in place for the Derby. I\'m trying to find out whether they are in place for other races as well-- Dutrow has the odds-on favorite for the Oaks, and there are a lot of other stakes opening week at CD.

As for Vicarage, we\'re going to have to deal with him with Santana Strings in the Trial this week, and unfortunately he is now well rested. Which is when he has run his other good ones.

[jimbo66]

Rich,

Makes sense but don\'t you think Noble Causeway belongs in the group with High Fly and High Limit. His top is 1 and change.  He has developed a lot this year, but off the 5 weeks rest, he could be sitting on a move forward.  His race chasing High Fly in the Florida Derby reminded me a lot of Real Quiet\'s race chasing Indian Charlie in the Santa Anita Derby a few years back.  

NC is bred well, is moving forward, gets 5 weeks rest, has a derby winning trainer and a derby winning jockey.

This last point is not necessarily a fact, but notice how well Bellamy Road ran when he left Florida, how well Bandini ran when he left Florida.  The Florida horses have been very good this year (antithesis of the California 3 year olds).  To me, it makes High Fly and Noble Causeway playable in the 8-1 and 12-1 range, respectively.

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

Wasn\'t questioning the LA Derby figure at all.  I was asking what you thought of High Limit in the context of his \"1\" in the LA Derby and his \"pairup\" of \"1\" in the BlueGrass.  I guess you answered that, it depends on a lot of things.

Saying the LA Derby was a \"negative key\" race for me, wasn\'t questioning the figure, it was just saying that the horses that ran there are not top calibre and haven\'t improved much since then.  Fine, Sort it Out ran better twice since then.  Will he be on many of your derby tickets?  

I guess a number is a number for you and there is no such thing as a Key race or a negative key race.  Unless you call a \"key race\" a race where Beyer and/or Ragozin got the figure wrong, in which case the horses coming out of it are either faster or slower than public perception of them!!  This could be the case with Bandini this year.  That 103 beyer looks slow but if he runs another -3.1, he will be tough to beat....