Questions about Figures

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

I bought the K-Derby special and was amazed at some of the figures I saw.  You mentioned earlier this week on this board, you might post the Ark Derby and/or Blugrass figures here, so I assume you are OK with me discussing them here.  If not, delete my post.  I will try not to be too specific on quoting the numbers, as you are selling a product to others.

I just don\'t get the figure you gave Bandini.  I submit I have never made my own figures, have never studied the process, and have no legitimate grounds to attack anybody\'s figures, and I don\'t want to do that here.  I just want to try and understand how you can come up with some of these.  When I looked at the charts after the BlueGrass, the track looked a little slow to me that day, but not terribly so.  I thought Bandini ran a nice race but my suspicion was that the race fell apart a little bit.  Consolidator didn\'t pick up his feet, Sun King looked like he ran back to the Tampa race and High Limit was finished on the turn, hitting the inner rail in the stretch and still holding second.  1:50 on that track on that day, looked pretty average to me, based on my review of the charts.  I guess the Beyer boys agreed, giving the horse a 103, one of the slowest Bluegrass races in years.  I knew your figure would be a little better because BAndini was wide on both turns, but you have him as fast as SMarty Jones\' fastest race last year!!  High Limit pairing up?  Didn\'t look like it.  Sun King improved off the Tampa Race?  Didn\'t look like it.

The Bluegrass was more disturbing to me, but if you look at all of the \"last round\" of preps, the Illinois Derby, Wood, BlueGrass and Arkansas Derby, you have HUGE jump ups for all the winners.  Obviously they all ran big races but did all of these horses get 6 + points better at the same time?  

Somebody on this board commented a while back that the figures in \"blowout\" races get distorted.  I believe it was in criticism of High Limit before the LA Derby.   I didn\'t understand or agree with the comment, but I guess I can see that argument now.  Jerry, if the \"science\" part of the figure making doesn\'t lead you to what you feel is a logical conclusion, do you assume some kind of variant change to make the figures fit?  For example, did you not buy into High Limit regressing, Consolidator regressing and Sun King running back to his Tampa Race, so you gave Bandini a huge figure, so you could \"pair up\" High Limit and make it look more logical?  I know you expected big races out of Consolidator and High Limit based on the ROTW, so you were inclined to not give them both X\'s?  

Without giving away any trade secrets, can you shed some light on the process?  I will be honest, I don\'t feel comfortable with any of the T-Graph figures for these last round of Triple Crown preps, with the possible exception of Bellamy Road, since that race figured to come back with a huge figure.  (and it did!)

Thanks,

Jim

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

When I heard TCE and Lion Heart got Neg. 1\'s last year I was stunned. I discounted it but in reviewing the days I evenually accepted it hesitantly.

A negative 3.3 for Bandini is at first Blush unacceptable for me. I\'ve already done a year to year comparison between 2004 and 2005 for Bluegrass Day. The races were significantly slower on Bluegrass Day 2004 yet TCE ran faster. Another item i\'m convinced existed this year was a tricky outside bias, as well as, the traditional speed bias.

Keeneland is always quirky, theres a history of open margin wins there and of horses coming in off the Bluegrass with very competitive numbers and running up the track in the Derby and disappearing for life. Caveat the Lexington goes the other way.

At this time, I need to review more, but I\'m currently inclined to discount a huge number for Bandini or even a pair for High Limit. Frankels do sometimes bounce. High Limit wants little part of real ground in my opinion.

To summarize, we certainly have 2 big win races on very quirky and questionable surfaces with the Wood and Bluegrass. Two results in the terms of numbers that can be questioned upon their face in some repects. However, even if you discount both of them to Zeds its still quite feasible the Wood and Bluegrass winners could fill out the perfecta. I\'ll have it for the minimum. Pace and Post position is gonna play its role of course. Bandini apparently jumped to about 7.2 points to a new top. I just can\'t currently see anyway to corroborrate that.



Post Edited (04-23-05 12:08)

[Saddlecloth]

I agree, using a projection system, that blowout wins make it tough... as fast as smarty jones best race last year, no way.

This certainly means Bandini will be the sheets play and grossly overbet in the derby.

[miff]

JIM & CtC,

I couldn\'t agree more with your observations on the figs awarded in the Bluegrass.There will be the usual explanations which make make perfect sense to the fig maker.

Racing reality is that Bandini didn\'t come close to Smarty\'s best. Sun King X\'d(never raised a hoof) according to Zito and Prado but both claim a brutal trip contributed to the poor performance.

High Limit did not come close to his previous performance regardless of what any fig says.Three fig makers including Beyer have it the way we saw it also.

[gvido]

Why do you think Bandini will be the sheets play??

Au contraire, I pray he takes alot of $$$ \'cause he\'ll be up the track if you buy the fig.

[p3991r]

it appears that Rag and Thorograph agree on this one....

the biggest difference between the two is on Greeley\'s Galaxy...Rag has him much slower...

Jimbo,

I hinted several times right after the Blue Grass that it wasn\'t nearly as bad as some people thought. The 6F call of the race was actually quite fast relative to the final time of the race and the other two routes that day. I believe that the pace impacted the final time for several competitors. Other pace figure makers also have that pace fast.

My thinking is that Bandini ran quite well that day and High Limit more or less ran even better than he had in the Lousiana Derby (which makes perfect sense given his lightly raced career and 2nd race off a layoff pattern). (Of course you know I think he had an easy trip LA Derby day and didn\'t run nearly as well as some people thought).

I\'m not going to get into a complicated anaysis of each horse\'s performance prior to and in the BG, but assuming TG broke that race out, IMHO they are building the effect of pace into the figure for the race. So it  is representing the performance \"for some of the horses\" more accurately than a pure speed figure alone (like the Beyer figure which requires that you incorporate subjective opinions about the impact of pace on your own).

I guess we could discuss this endlessly, but I hope you and JB will just let my opinion stand and take it no further. My own opinion of the BG is that it was a very good prep for a few of those horses.

I was hoping that no one would catch that because it might have created some value for me based on the slow final time.



Post Edited (04-23-05 13:33)

[jimbo66]

CH,

Whatever the reason is that JB gave Bandini the figure he did, I would bet dollars to donuts it is NOT because of your \"pace\" reason.  Sorry, but he argued with you on this board for the better part of two weeks about pace.  So you really think you convinced him he was wrong about pace and he factored that into the Bluegrass?  

Not!

[Saddlecloth]

I also dont think that the number they gave had anything to do with the pace, though it was very fast.

why will he take money cause of the sheets?  They always do, sheets high fig horses are always hammered.

Jimbo,

I am expressing my own view only.

The final time of the race was not particlularly fast (a Beyer of 103 seems quite reasonable to me), but the performance of several of the horses was better than the final time indicates because the pace was fast. That\'s how I am viewing the race.  

What other people are doing with their figures and why is up to them.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- Here are the BG, Ill. Derby, and Ark Derby. I did not break out the BG, the track was within a half point either way of being the same for all 3 routes (which is the only reason why Ragozin got it right), and as you will see only the winner ran a new top, with two horses pairing and the others running well off their tops. This is what I meant about stake races where the winner runs 4 or more points better than anyone else producing some big numbers.

For both the Arkansas Derby and Ill Derby I ADDED at least 3 points compared to all other routes on the day (Haw was complicated, as the track as a whole was changing speed, but if I had done the race with the other routes, GG would have gotten a better figure than BR). I have no idea how Ragozin came up with that slow a figure for GG-- it is way, way wrong. He also has some other problems in his Derby numbers-- I might get to that later.

On the other hand, Beyer blew the BG big time, and it\'s not the first time he has been afraid to give out a big number. Some might recall that he robbed SJ last year when he won the Rebel (neg 3 3/4), and I suspect that is what happened with BR\'s GP win this year.

The number that is in question is AA\'s first start this year, toughest stake figure I have had to do in a long time. I did cut it loose (added, as I said at the time), and I reviewed it a week ago. Still not enough info-- hopefully some more out of the race will run back in the next week, before the final Derby sheets.


http://www.thorograph.com/hold/d2005.pdf

TGJB,

I haven\'t verified it yet, but I don\'t think Beyer broke out the BG. Based on what I have seen so far, I think his figures for that day are consistent with the BG being about a 103 because at least one other figure maker that uses the same scale gave it a 101.

Interesting that you didn\'t break the race out and have it much faster than him.



Post Edited (04-23-05 15:05)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

classhandicapper wrote:

> Jimbo,
>
> I hinted several times right after the Blue Grass that it
> wasn\'t nearly as bad as some people thought. The 6F call of the
> race was actually quite fast relative to the final time of the
> race and the other two routes that day.

The problem was there were lightly raced horses in the other races. I called the pace Hot. It was legitmate. They came home slow, but so did Peace Rules two years ago. This race is gonna be grist for debate post Derby and the problem is gonna be explaining away the changing results on bounce and distance. Bandini is probably gonna show nicely in the Derby. He\'s improving and he\'s Pletcher trained. High Limit is gonna be prominent for as long as the mojo and the track takes him. The horses behind Bandini all ran poorly even giving him a Neg 3.3 with the exception of High Limit and Closing Argument. Why should those two have run well in the circumstances? Because they are maturing 3 yr olds?

I think theres other ways to view the Bluegrass. From my perspective its very difficult to give Bandini a negative 3.3 unless you\'re locking in on the previous efforts. On a variant and raw time analysis a fast Bluegrass time does not hold up well in my opinion. If you applied the final times in this years Bluegrass to last years bluegrass you\'d have to give TCE and Lion Heart about a negative 4.3 and I just can\'t accept that projection.

At any rate, my prime play will be to beat BR but i will box Jerry\'s high number earners so I don\'t look a complete fool when they come in.

lol

CtC



Post Edited (04-23-05 15:14)

[miff]

Re hot pace in the middle of the BG.The first part of the race was average and the last 3/8ths in 40+(even adjusted for the day) was pedestrian.

High limit ran as well as his prior start? Bandini ran as fast as Smartys best fig? Sun King moved forward?

I guess it\'s a late April\'s Fool joke.

[TGJB]

Yeah, much better to have every horse but one run way off their top, in a GI for 3yos. Because that happens a lot.

I just took a look, and I actually have the track a lot FASTER than the day before or after.

Look at it this way-- if Bandini wasn\'t in the race, what would it have looked like? Would you really think HL beat the others in that field by 3 lengths while going backward?