ROTW

[TGJB]

This week\'s race is Monday\'s General George, and our guest analyst will be SoCalman2. He has sent in a draft based on the probables, but since he is on Moscow time (seriously), he had to go to bed before the final field was drawn. We\'ll post his work tomorrow, it\'s good.

Very thorough analysis.

Taste of Paradise - Fires a good race from time to time, but is generally a notch or two below these.

Gators and Bears - Consistent runner that fits here very well. Major contender.

New York Hero - Hasn\'t done enough lately to merit support here.

Saratoga County - Just turned 4YO that blossomed nicely after showing some promise early in his career. Is suited to 7F and as a just turned 4yo could possibly make more progress this year (even if not today) instead of heading backwards. Major contender.

Unforgettable Max - Fits well at this level. Has done his best running when able to shake loose early - which won\'t happen here with Don Six in the race, but can be rated and still run well. Was used hard in the middle part of the Cigar trying to stay with a torrid internal fraction. That race can safely be tossed out. Has been away from the races for more than 2 months. Trainer has a decent record with this kind of layoff, but this is a stakes race and generally you have be wound up 100% to win a stakes unless you lay over the field. UM does not lay over this field and if he is wound up 100% IMO that could be a bad training move. Contender.  

Don Six - showed a lot of ability early and has exploded forward for \"move up trainer\" Scott Lake. Lake\'s horses tend to hold togther even when they run big ones. Looks like the primary speed. The two most likely ways to beat him are that he\'s probably better at 6F than 7f and someone could always show more speed than expected and prevent him from shaking loose like he did in his last 2 spectacular performances. Other than that he looks best. Major Contender.

Booca Al Lupo -  Last wasn\'t bad, but seems to be a notch or 2 below these at this time.

Houston\'s Prayer - Occasionally fires a big enough shot to get himself in the thick of this, but is a notch below the best.

Private Horde - Seems to do his best running on wet tracks. Would not shock. He\'s not far off these at all.

I think the logical 4 horses to focus on are Gators and Bears, Saratoga County, Don Six and Unforgettable Max.

If you put a gun to my head, I\'d probably say Don Six is the most likely winner because I believe it is more likely he will shake loose and get 7F in his current condition than has been the case in the past. However, those are vulnerabilities in what appear to be superior figures. So I don\'t think it would be wise to bet on him at a short price.

Gators and Bears and Saratoga County are very similar in probability of winning. I\'ll take the minority opinion and say I think Saratoga County is more likely to improve than G&B because he just turned 4. However, G&B has some excellent races against very good company. Call it a draw.

Unforgettable Max is probably the only one of the centenders that may get overlooked in the betting. Personally though, I do not like to back horses that I think aren\'t  best just because they are a better price when I think there are potential flaws. I think UM does his best racing when loose and I\'d prefer that he was coming back to the races within 4-8 weeks and not over 2 months. I rank him below the other 3.

Any of the other horses could theoretically be an overlay at some price, but I generally won\'t go that deep into a field of horses looking for an overlay.

I suspect there won\'t be a big enough overlay in this race to merit a wager.



Post Edited (02-20-05 17:20)

[spa]

If we just keep faith with the numbers and hope for rain, it\'s Private Horde. He is covered up in the form and could deliver a big price.

[Mall]

I buy in to the idea that there are certain horses which do their best running loose on the lead, and that their chances should be downgraded considerably in a race where that is unlikely, but I\'m not following how that applies to Max. He ran what was then a new life top coming from far back in a 7f race on 2/16, wasn\'t loose on the lead when he paired his new top on 4/17, & wasn\'t loose when he ran a new top/paired on 7/25. My take is that Max is pretty versatile.

I\'m also wondering what leads you to the conclusion that Don will likely shake loose. Is your conclusion based on the raw nos in his last two, or on the pace figures you(I think) posted in connection with another race? If the latter, any chance you could explain what they are for this race? Perhaps it was just me, but they were a little hard to follow the 1st time around.

[TGJB]

\"Shake loose\" is a nice choice of words, all things considered.

[derby1592]

Good job Socalman and good luck.

By the way, in Moscow, what is the post-time for the ROTW?

Chris

P.S. On Thursday, I will be only a few miles from Moscow...Moscow Idaho that is for the basketball game between Arizona and Washington State.

mall,

UM has 3 very good wins when he got loose and 1 win in a NW1 allowance race at 6F off the pace. If you believe that speed figures are gospel descriptions of performance, you won\'t agree with my conclusion that he runs better when he gets loose.

He also has some very good races from off the pace. That\'s why I didn\'t say he needs to be loose. I think it would help, but he could win without the lead.

Let\'s put it this way. If he\'s ding donging through the stretch with one of the other major contenders, I\'d rather have the other horse. If for some reason he shook loose of Don Six, I expect him to keep going and win.  

I do not use pace figures to project who I think will be on the lead. I use them to evaluate performances. Horses are rated. They generally only run as fast early as they are required to run to get the position they want. Don Six has recorded some blistering early speed in the past at 6F and is extremely sharp right now. I don\'t see anyone that can run with him early without severely compromising their chances. (based on style and fractions)

That being said, there is always a chance  someone will. So since he was loose last time, I would be reluctant to give him full credit for that performance because it is not 100% he will get loose again even though it might be likely. The pace figure itself for his last race was in line with the final time figure - which makes it quite fast.



Post Edited (02-20-05 17:44)

[mholbert]

i have gnb and ds both at 5/2.  if the morning line held up, i would be playing gnb at anything >= 7/2.  although the outside three would get used very lightly in multi-race wagers, gnb would take the bulk of the play.

[Mall]

Funny, looking at variant adjusted pace figures leads me to believe that Max is the only horse who can stay with Don early, & he appears to be able to press a very fast early pace & still finish, while Don collapsed at the end of his last try at 7f. The race kind of reminds me of 12-1 Private Horde beating Lake\'s other unbeatable sprinter on a sloppy track at Sar 2 yrs ago. I also can\'t help but wonder if everyone is so focused on what Lake has done with Don that they\'re overlooking what Preciado has done with Max since he got the horse 3 starts ago. But the thing that really has me scratching my head is everyone saying that the race is not a good betting opportunity. I know it\'s Lake, but both of Don\'s big nos & his blistering fractions were earned on a fast inner dirt track, he wasn\'t able to handle the last sloppy track he raced on, this is probably not his best distance, & he\'s likely to go off around even money. Whoever you like, that sounds to me like the definition of a great betting opportunity.

Max looks like the second fastest speed to me too. He has pressed fast fractions, but at longer distances (slower paces), not the type Don Six is able to put up. The problem with being second speed is that they usually get torched badly by the primary speed if they hook up.

For example:

If one horse can run 21.4 44.3 while racing well within myself and another can run 22.1  45.1 while racing well within himself, if the duel goes in 21.4 44.4, the speedier horse will probably go on to run his usual figure. The other horse will tire badly.  

Second speed is usually a bad position to be in. If you duel you get torched and if you sit, you often don\'t have the closing punch needed to get up. (unless of course you are versatile)

I see the same 7F vulnerability in Don Six that you do. I just think that if Max tries running with him, he\'s probably committing suicide even if he gets Don Six beat too. I don\'t see Max even trying to duel with Don Six. IMO, it would be very foolish. I see him letting Don get loose, staying close, and then coming after him mid turn. IMO, that\'s his best chance.
   
If Don Six goes off at even money, I\'m sure I\'ll find something to bet in there. :-)

[Mall]

Not sure I\'d agree with the \"usually get torched\" characterization, as the research I\'ve seen, & my personal experience, tends to suggest just the opposite. I understand using an example to make a point, but what I was suggesting when I referenced variant adjusted pace figures was that Max\'s in the longer races are not that much different than Don\'s in the shorter races, so I think it\'s possible that Max will be racing well  within himself, in 2nd position, where he might get 1st jump & be able to take advantage of his superior ability to close the deal-at this distance. The problem is that gnb won\'t be that far behind, SC has a middle move which might put him in the mix at the critical stage of the race, PH moves up in the slop, etc. The more I look, the more I\'m thinking that maybe the way to play the race is to structure a series of bets based on Don finishing no better than 3rd, & hope he runs out. A very interesting race, no matter how it turns out.

Good Luck.

[Michael D.]

class,
barring scratches, i don\'t think don six will go off at even money. local hero dominguez on a local star, and saratoga county will take a lot of money. you probably have to beat don six at 2-1 or higher (5-2 or 3-1 maybe?), making the race pretty difficult.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I suspect Max is a horse that should already have more on his resume. What I see in Max is an underachiever and complete chaos in his past performances. None of which means its gonna be chaos Monday, but just where is this horse\'s forte?

Why does he have three trainers in his past performances?

He\'s a sprinter under Perkins.

Then Levine has no idea where he wants to place him and then...

His current trainer thinks he\'s a middle distance horse, until today.

Why all the confusion?

Last years General George was a nice looking race, but that was under Perkins and he ran Max from off pace. Then Levine decided he was gonna make him a pace contestor. His new trainer had him on the lead in routes but what makes anyone think he\'s gonna be on the bridle with these fast horses? His works?

Don\'t get me wrong. I like this horse. I think he\'s got some ability, should they finally figure out what they have. I\'m not so sure its a pace contesting 7 mark horse.

CtC

[jimbo66]

A few comments on the rotw:

1. Michael, no way Don Six goes off at 2-1 to 3-1 range as you suggest.  Too fast and too much hype by Lake.  3-2 Tops.  

2.  Great job by So. Cal.  Great reading, as are all the ROTW\'s.  As a gambler, I believe in \"luck\" and streaks though, and Unforgettable Max is up against it as the \"pick\" in the ROTW.  No winners in the rOTW since Saratoga, which is 6 months ago.  Some nice \"seconds\" or \"thirds\", but six months with no winners.  I will try to help that trend by being very against \"Unforgettable\" in this spot.  That will put two streaks on the line, my bad streak against the ROTW bad streak.

3.  Don\'t see how Max can win. He presses don six and he gets cooked, he lets him alone and he tries to run him down is not his best style.  I like Max in two turn races where he is the controlling speed.  I hate him in this spot, for what its worth (not much).

4.  Willing to take a stand against Don Six if he goes off at 3-2 or less, not based on \"bounce\" but based on 7 furlongs.  think he is best at 6 and worth trying to beat as the favorite.  I like SoCal\'s case against Saratoga County also, so I will try the \"local\" horse in Gators n Bears.  not sure he is really local, but he is 2 for 2 over the track i believe and as opposed to Don Six, I like him at 7 furlongs.  I respect the \"number power\" of Don Six and also the fact that Lake moves his horses up (for whatever reason), but I like to bet against horses running huge figures while loose on the lead at tracks favoring speed like the Aqueduct inner track.  Especially when they leave those tracks for more neutral surfaces, like i believe laurel to be.  Any guys that know laurel well out there care to comment on the surface, it would be appreciated.

If Gators goes off at 3-1, I will give him a shot.

Good luck

Jim