ROTW

If you like UM, you are getting the price you want.

Reasonable result. Don Six stole away to a big lead in a fast pace but found the 7F a tad out of his range. Saratoga County got the good stalking position and moved forward enough to get the job done. Gators ran his usual race. UM didn\'t use his tactical speed to get position, wound up wide and couldn\'t close enough. Maybe he wasn\'t 100% off the layoff. Had Don Six rated a little more instead of opening up that much, he might have been able to win. Anyone that tried to run with him early today would have been off the board.



Post Edited (02-21-05 17:12)

[Michael D.]

9/5 jimbo ..... i passed on the race. i have not been watching lrl all that much, but isn\'t 1:23.4 a bit slow? they came home in :13.2. a serious grade 1 or grade 2 7f horse would have inhaled that crew in the stretch.



Post Edited (02-21-05 17:47)

They came home pretty slow, but Don Six set a fast pace. I commented earlier that had he rated a little better he probably would have won. After examining the fractions a little more closely, I am fairly certain he was best and would have won with a better ride.

Saratoga County and Don Six were 4 clear at the 1/8 pole and just hung on. So the rest of the field was getting to them.  

These are clearly not Grade I horses though.

[Michael D.]

class,
i wouldn\'t sell DS short going 6f against the best. that aqu race was awful fast. he is quick enough to make his own pace, and does have lake in his corner. he just got a bit tired at the end today.

Yea you are right. Maybe at 6F he can run with the big boys.

[JohnTChance]

Clearly not Grade 1 horses? Hold on.

Seeing as CAJUN BEAT won the 2003 Breeder\'s Cup with a -2.5, and MIDAS EYES won the 2004 Forego
with a - 3.75, and OUR NEW RECRUIT won the $2 million NAD Sprint in Dubai last year with a 1, I\'d say four
of the nine horses who competed in the G2 General George are capable of running well at the G1 level:

- DON SIX came off a -2 and -4 [and may become SHAKE YOU DOWN]
- PRIVATE HORDE came off two -3\'s [but clearly needs his Turfway vet to run at that level]
- GATOR\'S N BEARS has run two -3\'s and five minus numbers in a row.
- SARATOGA COUNTY [who won because of the four pounds he gave the winner and/or
because his trip didn\'t take him 5-wide on the turn like last time]

In any case, we\'ll see.

JohnTChance

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The track was very slow. That was racehorse time. I think they are Grade I animals.

Even Problematic Max was only beaten 2 lengths. \"Its a shame they are wasting this horse.\"

SoCal2d - I think Jerry\'s number is gonna stand you\'re General George Race Analysis/Selection in very good light.



Post Edited (02-21-05 20:29)

[BitPlayer]

SoCal and Class -

Thanks for your thoughts.  The question about turn-backs wasn\'t concerned with Max today (even if the Cigar were two-turns, I think the freshening would have offset its effects), but was a general one that crops up from time to time.  Max brought it to mind because he was going from two turns to one turn when I lost money on him in the Forego last year.  In any event, it was interesting to read how you guys approach the issue.

[jimbo66]

Michael,

I was surprised to see 9-5.  The \"late money\" went to GatorsNBears, which made my bet miserable.  At 5-1, I liked my bet, but at 5-2 he was an underlay.  Unfortunately, I bet with about 6/7 minutes to post because I have been having computer problems and didn\'t want to get shut out.  Oh well.  Next time.

The ROTW jinx continues.  The \"key\" was going against Saratoga County and of course he winds up the winner......

Interesting that nobody on this board liked Saratoga County, and nobody I taked to liked him, but he went off pretty short.  5-2.

[msola1]

Michael,

I made the same 6-minutes-to-post bet on GNB. But I outdid you, because I confidently told a friend watching with me that Saratoga Country was a \"sucker bet.\"

Mike

[Michael D.]

jimbo,
i was going to take a shot with GnB, but as you say, the odds drifted too low. dominguez didn\'t get the best of trips. the guy is one of the best in my opinion, but he got boxed in around the turn then got caught behind another horse at the eighth pole. the horse had to much to do in the final sixteenth.... i hadn\'t noticed how badly SC drifted out at the end. those were tired horses. i hope a few of these guys come back for the grade 1 7f race at aqu in april, will make for an extremely interesting betting race.



Post Edited (02-22-05 11:29)

I do not view running a fast race with a loose lead against non-graded sprinters to be equivalent to running a fast race with a highly competitive pace against other Grade 1 horses. Yes Don Six ran a fast enough race to be compared to grade 1 horses. IMO, he just didn\'t run a good enough race yet. (key word yet).



Post Edited (02-22-05 16:26)

>Interesting that nobody on this board liked Saratoga County, and nobody I taked to liked him, but he went off pretty short. 5-2.<

That\'s not true. I made him co-second choice and only slightly less probable than Don Six. I thought he had a decent chance to improve further. Which of course is exactly the way they bet it and that\'s why I passed.

>The \"late money\" went to GatorsNBears, which made my bet miserable. At 5-1, I liked my bet, but at 5-2 he was an underlay. <

During the early betting I was also focusing on G&B at that price. To be honest, I really wanted to bet the winner because I thought he had beaten a pretty good field at GP and suspected that he was both faster than given credit for and more likely to move forward than anyone else in the race. The latter view was the complete opposite of the consensus view.

At the price though, IMO he was an underlay. I think the public bet the race approximately right.