ROTW

[Mall]

Not a lot to go on as they\'ve been running on a brand new track for less than a mo., but rightly or wrongly, the info which is available played an important part in my thinking:

1.In the 34 7f races which have been run on a fast track, the avg field size was 8, 38% were won wire to wire, 59% of the winners were in the top 3 at the 1st call, avg beaten lengths at the 1st call was 3 & at the 2nd call was 2.8, S horses had a .42 impact value, & the 3 inside posts were at an advantage.

2. Everything the same for the two 7f races run on a wet track, except that one went wtw, & the winners of both were in the top 3 at the 1st call.

Many have pointed out that even when the sample size is large enough for statistical validity, these kinds of nos should be used sparingly if at all in stakes races, but for what it\'s worth, if you decide to ignore the warning, gnb, don, max, & sar(sometimes) are the ones that best fit the win profile. The pts made re max & the distance & 2 turns are well taken, but HP, the horse not the mia poster, who appears best at the distance, & PH, both figure to be coming from 5 or more back at both calls. Also, show me a horse w/o any questions in a race like this & I\'ll show you a horse which is going to go off at a lot lower odds than Max.

P.S. To the (unreal?) M.D.: Chris & I did make the show, but were both very much, if I can borrow one poster\'s handle, bit players.

[SoCalMan2]

Couple of quick comments --

1) The race goes off at 12:19 AM Tuesday in Moscow, Russia.  People here think Moscow, Idaho is \"smeshno\" (that means funny)

2) Thank you to everybody for the kind comments.

3)  On pace, we could see all sorts of things.  TOP and GNB could surprise out of the gate.  The gate speed in California is different than in the east, and Mandella\'s horse may be wondering where everybody went.  GNB had a speedy recent work over the strip which indicates his connections may be thinking about what they need to do differently to crack this nut.  I think UM has good speed but can also sit back if others are sent.  I think the horses on the outside are weaker in terms of early speed than they appear.  DS of course may well still clear (but hopefully at a cost). He has a confirmed frontrunner running style which is absent elsewhere in this race.  His style has only been exaggerated since the change of barns.  Also, Lake allegedly worked him 2 furlongs on Saturday, and Luzzi, while generally awful, was able to get this guy his best break out of the gate on the DRF PPs.

4) As to Saratoga County, I want to address something Classhandicapper said and make clear that my analyis of that Saratoga County in the ROTW only applies for the purposes of today.  I think the horse has a healthy sheet and a bright future.  I just think today is not a good day to be betting on him (unless the crowd lets him go off at a rich price I don\'t think they will).  He is a young horse and, health permitting, will improve to the point he would be the legitimate favorite in this same race on another day (next year, maybe?).  I just think if you look at him, he has spurts of improvement (two as a three year old) and periods of backing off.  He seems to be coming to the end of an improvement spurt. I do not expect him to go too far back, and I definitely think he is going to be seeing good new tops later.  As I mentioned, I could be wrong on my timing with him, but, if he is 3-1 and has to go around horses, I would rather take my chances. If I AM wrong about him today, then I hopefully will have a chance to get my money back when he gets even more over bet next time.



Post Edited (02-21-05 09:49)

I\'ve studied pace figures and pace matchups to death and believe me when I say being the inferior speed horse \"in a duel\" is a disasterous trip.

Now if the second speed is versatile enough to lay off the primary speed and still win - which I agree Max is - then primary speed/secondary speed issues are not as important. The second speed can sit off the leader and easily wait to challenge until later in the race.

Some of UM\'s route pace figures may be similar to Don Six\'s sprint pace figures, but by definition that makes the sprinter the quicker horse.

Just so we don\'t go off on a tangent. I\'m not bashing UM\'s chances in this race. He\'s one of the contenders and IMO only a little less likely than Don Six, G&B and Saratoga County (on a fast track).

I am just pointing out that 3 of his 4 lifetime wins came when he got a loose lead and Don Six is the faster horse assuming he remains as sharp as he was last time out. So I consider a duel to be a problem for him and a stalking effort to not be his best style.  

I consider that a small negative for UM that I would require slightly higher odds to compensate me for.



Post Edited (02-21-05 10:49)

Mall,

Here\'s some of the pace figures I am using:

Don Six\'s last 2 outs:

120 P - 118 F  6F
103 P - 109 F  6F

He also has some extremely quick figures in back races where he tired badly before Lake got him.

UM:

Cigar: 99 P  - 99 F (note: the pace figure here is measleading because it is the 4F call. The 1st quarter was slow but they cooked in the 2nd quarter. That was a much tougher pace than it looks)   1M

Tom Fool: 112P - 105F   7F

Note: Pace figures do not tell you how fast a horse ran in the early part of the race when you are comparing different distances.
They tell you how fast a horse ran in the early part of the race relative to the norm for that distance.

In addition, raw fractions can be very misleading when comparing different distances because of the length of straightaways in the early part of a race and other factors.

A 100 pace figure at 6 furlongs is actually running faster than a 100 at 8 furlongs.

The pace figures aren\'t attempting to determine who is faster. They are attempting to determine who ran the better race.  

However, if a horse has faster pace figures at a shorter distance, he is also obviously by definition the faster horse early.

[BitPlayer]

Class (and others with an opinion) -

You may have covered this in a prior post, and if so I apologize, but I\'m interested in the different running styles in one-turn v. two-turn races and how well horses switch between the two.

The need for horses to switch leads and tuck in shortly after the start when rounding the first turn obviously makes the pace demands of the two different types of races very different.  Do you have a general view regarding the impact on one-turn speed horses of stretching out to two turns?  Does it tend to negatively impact the pace they can withstand when they turn back to one turn, or do they benefit from added conditioning and/or learning to relax and close?  I assume that your answer may vary if the horse has been away for a while and is therefore prone to be \"fresh.\"

Regarding the ROTW and Unforgettable Max specifically, I think I\'m right that all but one of his negative numbers has been earned around two turns.  Do you think that reflects a special aptitude on his part, or is it a function of his getting better with age and coincidentally being stretched out at the same time.

BitPlayer

PS.  Nice job SoCal.  Ethel Mertz could never have done as well.

[spa]

After much reflection...Saratoga County/Private Horde over Gators and Bears/Don Six  $10 supers $40 could get you $40,000....If we learned anything from last week, Private Horde should run \"BIG\" even from the outside and on short rest.

[Even for Life]

Track is listed as fast at Laurel. We had rain for about 3 hours last night,but no big deal after a bit of a dry spell.

I enjoyed the ROTW Analysis. Well done and I can always learn from others perspective.

I like Unforgettable Max at 5-1 or better. I can see Don Six getting enough pace pressure from Taste of Paradise (SCal speed, going 7f, and running to pace of the O\'brien, where he dueled Pico Central in 43.4) and Private Horde, who has been close to the lead with fast fractions his last few.

Will Don Six clear these, and can he get 7 furlongs? Obviously how you answer this is how you will bet. I think Max #\'s are strong enough (improved to the -1 as a new top, then regressed to the 2 after coming back on three weeks rest, with tough internal fractions in the Cigar against Pico Central. Now back after little less then 3 months race, with a trainer that is good off a short layoff). The problem is he can improve off the -1, and still not be fast enough against this crew. I can envision him sitting off a pace that is more contested than some would think, and running strong through the lane. As always the odds/value will dictate the bet. I don\'t think Don Six and the risk/reward profile is worth the 6-5 or less that will probably be available.

I also think Max actually has the running style for an extended sprint (7F) horse. Cutting back from the mile race with some decent works (stong 58 2/5 B for Pha--although I prefer to see him working more then every 15 days) and the ability to be on near the lead. Plus he has been facing some strong competition--Ghostzapper, Midas Eyes, and Pico Central).

Speaking of the development of Saratoga County -- who I don\'t like (I don\'t think he is fast enough for this group, even off the  breakthrough figure in his last), did you catch the reason for his improvement as told via the front page story of in DRF:

\"Things began to turn around last fall when George Weaver decided to change the colt\'s training methods. Instead of working him in company where he would lay on horses and get lazy in the stretch, Weaver put blinkers on Saratoga County and had the rider get after him. Five of his last workouts have been bullets\".

This made some sense to me; Weaver then added the brillant \"It seems to have helped, but I also think he\'s just doing better\"...

[TGJB]

I\'m a civilian this week, so I get to discuss the ROTW like everybody else. But first, great job by SoCal, and the line about children getting slower is a classic.

My thoughts-- Don Six is the most likely winner (note that the DRF consensus does not have him 1-2-3, whatsupwithat?). The value in the race probably comes in playing exotics and throwing out Taste of Paradise (probably faster on Ragozin, given that he comes out of 1 turn Socal races), and Saratoga County, because of the two forward moves and the amount of development from the 3 as recently as last fall.

Other comments--

Gators N Bears-- #!%&#, chapter 10. Had this horse bought in September of his 3yo year, my client had his local trainer watch him work, trainer said the horse was unsound and woudn\'t stand training much longer. Twelve starts later, none of which is worse than 1 3/4, and 7 of which are negative, he joins a list that includes Xtra Heat (after her second lifetime start), Magic Weisner (for 100k, right before he won 6 straight and ran second in the Preakness), Glitter Woman (after her first start), and both Brass Hat and Josh\'s Madelyn for five figures each early last year.

But I don\'t see why he\'s not supposed to go back a couple of points today-- last time he hit the neg 3 he did, despite having 2 months, and now he\'s coming back much quicker. If he catches an off track on top of that, he becomes very shaky.

Unforgettable Max-- I think he\'ll run well, and I for one think his tactical speed is a plus. But he\'s only got one number that makes him strong here-- if he puts in somewhere around a zero or slightly better he figures to get a check, but is very unlikely to win-- you don\'t find too many stakes where NONE of the fast horses run a top, and too many have better tops or similar ones to him. Even if he does get back to his top, he\'s only maybe 25% to win. Value underneath, maybe.

Houston\'s Prayer-- How come nobody is talking about this one? His last 2 are as good as all UM\'s except one, he has nice time since his last, Iwinski has started getting numbers again, and you know Friedman is going to have Thornton stay inside. No reason this one can\'t get a check, definitely one I would use underneath.

Private Horde-- If there has ever been a better off track horse than this I don\'t remember it-- every off track number on his sheet is a top, and we\'re not talking 8\'s and 10\'s here. Yes, the pair of crazy numbers with short rest could cause a bounce, and he drew outside. But he\'s really fast, and 12-1 morning line. And if it\'s an off track, he\'s the play.

If it\'s a fast track (and as I write this it is), it\'s Don Six over the other four in tris and supers.

[SoCalMan2]

Dear BitPlayer

Thank you for the compliment.  

In response to your comment, I definitely look at the difference between two turn and one turn races.  However, I think UM can handle one turn pretty well (as well as handle the turn back if it were one).  

He ran a \'2.5\' as a two year old in a sprint.  That is pretty good one turn capability (on a par to his later two turn -1.5 top when you factor in age and experience).  He has had three major jump up tops in his career, and two of the three were in one turn sprints.  

As to turn backs from two turns to one, he is not really turning back today as his last race was one turn.  However, he turned back very nicely from the Queens County into the 2004 Gen George (1.5 point new top and first negative #).  

Having said all that, I, of course, would have liked it better if he had ran better in his last three one turn races, but he did either have excuses or was vulnerable to a bounce in those three instances so it is difficult to draw too much in either direction from those.

TGJB,

>I think he\'ll run well, and I for one think his tactical speed is a plus.>

I think tactical speed is a huge plus also, but I don\'t like it when a horse generally only wins when he gets loose on weaker competition and tends to have trouble through the stretch the rest of the time.

That\'s more of the kind of horse I like to use in the belly of an exacta because if faced with a strong challenge through the stretch they tend to lose more often than their figures would indicate.

bit,

I think when front running sprinters run a few routes it tends to dull their speed a bit. The longer they route the duller they will get when they try to turn back.

I also think there are horses that run much better when they can control the pace on the front end. You will occasionally find tiring sprinters that can wire routes when they get loose in the slower paces.  

Other than that, I don\'t have much of an insight. I think you are probably better off studying a trainer\'s success with various moves like that.



Post Edited (02-21-05 15:04)

TGJB,

>Houston\'s Prayer-- How come nobody is talking about this one? His last 2 are as good as all UM\'s except one, <

He\'s not that far off the better horses on speed, but he\'s been earning those figures against weaker. IMHO, you have to discount them slightly. I\'ll take the horse earning his figures against stiffer competition vs. the one earning them against weaker competition all day long. That doesn\'t mean he can\'t be a good value here. I just rarely go this deep into a field looking for a win bet.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

That was just like Post Time. Jerry came out and gave you the play.

I don\'t think Don Six is gonna run another Neg. 4 at seven marks, but then I don\'t think a neg. 4 will be necessary to win. I don\'t think Gators and Private Horde are gonna run negative 3\'s either. I\'m guessing if a horse can run a negative two here that will probably be good enough.

I was gonna do a quick analysis, but its all been said. I won\'t leave Saratoga County out because he appears to be on a forge to my eye. His sour period last year involved the Triple Crown Trail and recovery from it. I think hes got a good chance at 3rd or 4th and a lesser chance for better.

Its a tough race. Theres only 3 horses I don\'t like. It boils down to selecting a winner to me and I\'m not gettin any special insight. I\'m probably between Don Six and Saratoga County.

CtC

Private Horde is gonna be a very tempting price. If its really good I may put him atop, but I\'m highly skeptical of him being positioned to toss one more. I also think he likes TP.

[4singles2all]

Value here is Bucca Al Lupo @ 20:1. Hood on 2 back, then perhaps adjustments made (1/2 cup, full cup??) and he tosses the 0. Lightly raced, wins @ 33%, gets 5 lbs., good stalking style, loves track only no works since last start, but understandable since only 15 days ago. Will be using him top and bottom in ex; 1st and 2nd in tris with Gators, Saratoga, and Don.

MAX looks like a MHL type and now way here sprinting.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Well, the price is gonna be right. He\'s gonna be a lot more than 20-1.

he needs to improve two lengths in the next furlong off his last which is his best ever. He can pick one of those lengths up vs. Don Six on weight.