ROTW

[jimbo66]

CH,

No offense, but re-read your analysis of the race.  You called the first three betting choices \"major contender\" and the 4th betting choice a \"contender\".  The favorite you called the most likely winner and the co-second choices at 5-2, you called tied for second most likely winner.  

In other words, you had no opinion on the race.  Tough to redboard when your comments are on the board. You didn\'t specifically \"like\" Saratoga County. You called him a \"draw\" GnB as second most likely winner, but did add that if a gun was held to your head, you would take the minority opinion (on this board) and say SC was more likely to improve.

I have seen you take stands on this board before with picks and commentary, but this race certainly doesn\'t count as one of those.  

SoCal took a stab and missed.  

Others in this thread also took stabs and missed.  I didn\'t see anybody pick the winner.  

Next time,

Jim

[jimbo66]

My above comment assumes nobody held a gun to your head before the race.  

[jbelfior]

Great post on the General George.

DON SIX a grade 1 horse???

Let\'s fast forward to the second or third Saturday in August at Saratoga for the 6f Alfred G. Vanderbilt. Let\'s pit DON SIX (Dairy Queen supplements not available in the Saratoga area) versus CAJUN BEAT and SPEIGHTSTOWN. We\'ll throw in CLOCK STOPPER, VOODOO, and MIDAS EYES to make it
interesting.

Let\'s look at the odds board:

SPEIGHTSTOWN 3/2
CAJUN BEAT 5/2
MIDAS EYES 3/1
CLOCK STOPPER 9/2
DON SIX 7/1
VOODOO 15/1

I would bet VOODOO at SARATOGA before I bet DON SIX.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

To my knowledge Spreightstown is retired. Maybe Pico Central can run in his place.

Everything with Don Six must be measured pre and post Lake. Don Six is a big factor at 6 marks and might get 7. He sure did this last time.

[jbelfior]

CtC--

I agree with your Lake assessment. Not sure DON SIX can get his added nutrients at Saratoga or a Bc site. No nutrients=off the board in Gr 1 race.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

I am not redboarding at all.

My odds line was very clear.

I was hoping to get a bet on Saratoga County.

I thought going in that Don Six would be too short a price off his 6F figure and vulnerability at 7F.  

I knew going in I wasn\'t going to bet UM even though the price might look tempting because I thought his style was deficient for this specific race and I didn\'t want a horse that needed a peak performance in a stakes race off more than a 2 month layoff.

That left Saratoga County and G&B as the only potential bets based on my view of what the odds would be (which I didn\'t discuss). They were approximately even and IMO not far off Don Six at 7F.

Given that the consensus view was that SC was slower and likely to regress, I was hoping that would make him bettable for me. I did not share that consensus view. I have  different views on fluctuations of figures. I believe I can account for many of them on a trip basis and many of the rest are no different than why I bowl 150 one game, 175 the next game, 200 the next game and then back to 165.

I am very big on getting the general direction of the horse\'s form right and the general probability of him improving or going backwards.

I didn\'t pick him to win for sure.

Not taking credit for picking him. I am taking credit for not thinking he was the big underlay to key against.

For the record, Don Six set a very fast pace. It doesn\'t matter who actually won. IMO, Don Six was clearly best even though he will come back with a slower figure than several other horses. Had he rated loose on the lead just a little bit better, he would have won by a clear margin.



Post Edited (02-23-05 14:30)

[gvido]

jbelfior said

\"I agree with your Lake assessment. Not sure DON SIX can get his added nutrients at Saratoga or a Bc site. No nutrients=off the board in Gr 1 race.\"

Don\'t bet on it. Shake You Down grabbed a 3rd place placing in the Santa BC. Lake\'s speedballs tend to hold together.

[jbelfior]

gvido--


Good point.....just remembered THUNDERELLO, also.

Not sure DON SIX is as good as either one, however his #\'s lately would indicate otherwise. He may end up proving me wrong, which would not be the first or last time.

Still find this all amazing as to what\'s been going on, especially at the tracks in the Mid-Atlantic area. Perhaps they should have brought DON SIX in to answer questions after Barry Bonds. \"DON\" may have been more eloquent.

So \"DON,\" have you been cheating?

DON: \"Cheating, define cheating to me.\"


Good Luck,
Joe B.
























Good Luck,
Joe B.