johnnym: King Guillermo will make his next start in the 146th Kentucky Derby after winning his way into the May 2 race with a remarkable 4 3/4-length upset of the Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday
Per DRF

One race prior to the derby at least you know he will be fresh

ajkreider: Sole, Ete and this one makes 3.  Stuctor may yet throw his hat in the ring too. Hell, Alex has a turf start.

Honor AP will get the better TG number I think. Very nice off the layoff.

TGJB: Street Sense, Mine That Bird...

big18741: Orb/Golden Soul closer/closer exacta.

Boscar Obarra: Pros have been doing this since Secretariat  was a 2yo , and before that

 Nice of them to join in 100 years later

johnnym: Back to the races
Handicapping for a Sloppy Track

The contenders

1 Nadal; Trainer Winning at 38% at Oaklawn HMMMMMM?
First time around two turns has Blame as a Sire distance should not matter here has run a Pair of 3s BL Off.

3 Basin: Has a win over a sloppy track with a 2 coming in of the layoff first time around two turns as well

4 Silver Prospector; The iron horse of the group being his 9 start and a win over the track. Like the Pattern here jumped up 4 pts last out does not need the win here just a solid showing. Does have a 41% chance new top has the go to Jock

5 No Parole; Tricky read here ran a 1 first out then went two turns last out won for fun but was slow with a 8. Has a win over the slop high weight.

6) Three Technique: Improved his top by 4pts last out routing for the first time in the slop.. Has a 34% new top Goes from Ortiz to Saez

American Theorem: Out of the triple crown winning sire.
Coming in of the layoff word is he is training really well numbers wise he is a step slower than the others Finished second last out to Eight Rings who ran a clunker the other day

Small but competitive field
Expecting a bit of Speed

The Play
#6 to win
EX Box
1,6
GL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hd1ciPnTGKg

Mike C: No Parole has a very interesting sheet to me. The $ sign from the first race,  means that the connections knew they had a very fast horse and that he was going to run well that day; and he did! Very fast number, and his next 2 were not as fast, but the (h) symbol could mean that he just coasted through the stretch in both of those races. He is the fastest horse so far and is going to be a decent price.

Silver Charm: The track may be wet. They\'re taking blinkers off Nadal I\'m sure to slow him down. He is quick and has the inside post. Not hard to figure this one out here. Comes back in 4 weeks, already running fast so how much faster? Particularly after a tough race?

Basin likes the slop and probably needs one. Doesnt mean they dont send him however.

Silver Prospector is legit and Three Technique is the Sleeper. Take the former, dont toss the latter

BitPlayer: Loved the link.

The 5/2 morning line on Nadal seems high to me, but we\'ll see.  Since he hasn\'t run that fast and needs to answer the 2-turn question, I\'ll have to go against him as the favorite.

On Three Technique, I think Irad was committed to ride a Baffert (maybe Eight Rings) who ultimately was not sent to the race when it failed to split.  Eight Rings hasn\'t run since the Breeders Cup Juvenile.  I have read that Jose Ortiz might have picked up the mount on Three Technique, but was still on the sidelines when Saez was given the call.  Depending on the odds, I\'m considering Three Technique and Basin.

BitPlayer: Rebel
#  Odds
1   1.2
2   73.7
3   4.4
4   4.9
5   8.7
6   4.4
7   57.0
8   10.8

johnnym: Sure was a impressive performance..

ajkreider: Well, then the filly winner was off the charts, being a half a second faster. The Essex went almost a full second faster.

johnnym: Time faster yes..
Filly was not pressed at all,Nadal was pressed never folded.
Speed held yesterday as well

BitPlayer: Nadal\'s Beyer is apparently 96.  Timeform US is 120, which is within a point of the winners of both the Essex and the Azeri.  Charlatan was faster at Santa Anita.  Craig Milkowski said on Twitter that making figs for Oaklawn was not particularly difficult

TGJB: I haven’t looked yet, but the issue will be, whatever you give Nadal you have to give the second horse.