Road to the Derby

[BitPlayer]

Seems like an example of how pace can affect figures.  If you give Nadal a pair, then the two horses that get new tops are the two that dropped back early.

[johnnym]

Morning TG world
Today we have the Louisiana Derby now run at 1 3/16

Nice large field to boost at equal weights..

Contenders

3) Wells Bayou: Jumped up 4 pts last race and almost wired the field got a bit lazy on the lead got passed by the winner but did re engage after he was passed.
Has the breeding to handle the distance has Geroux back on him. 42% run a new top with a trainer who wins at 27% at the FG and with Geroux. Speed of the race
Will we get 8-1

10) Enforceable: Had a nice pattern then had the dreaded 2 pt regress.. How do you read this pattern? Trainers stats show he has a 31% chance to X and a 25% to run off. Lots of closer’s in this race.. How wide coming home?

My play..
I’m all in on the 3 he will have the lead let’s see how far he can take them.
Not playing the 10 going with a X with him.
3 to win
Protect in ex
1,2,8,9,13,14/3

Tri
3/1,2,8,9,13,14/1,2,8,9,13,14
Tri
3/1,2,8,9,13,14/4,6,7
GL to all

P.S
In the Oaks gonna try and beat the 6 Finite with the 3&4
DD 3,4/3

[JEB]

I also like the three here too. Hoping the big purses keep these 3 yo fields large since they are not as important as preps any more. Will be interesting to see how much this improves the field for the Ky Derby come September as one result in February will probably not get you enough points to get into the derby

[BitPlayer]

Louisiana Derby
#  Odds
1   8.5
2   15.6
3   3.6
4   11.5
5   70.4
6   29.6
7   36.3
8   8.7
9   18.1
10  3.3
11  24.2
12  22.1
13  6.1
14  12.7

[johnnym]

On the virtual derby trail this week the Curlin Fl Derby
Hearing the 4&6 will scratch
All at equal weight

Contenders

7)Tiz the Law; Ran a new top last out with a 3 pt jump up.
Horse  missed some training time but word is he is training well. Trainer shows a 34% chance new top and 20% pair.. Lots of speed in the race

9) Independence Hall: Fastest horse in the race with a -2as a two year old.
Has X is last 2 out.. Trainer shows 5% new top and a 16% chance for a pair.
Wonder if he gets the distance?

12) Ete Indien: Got beat by the 7 two races back then ran a commanding win in the FOY breaking from the outside..Has paired his last two may be sitting on another move forward. Don’t like the post and lots of speed inside him may be wide..

The play
Did not care for Franco’s ride last out on Tiz. If Franco doesn’t get in his way Tiz should be sitting perfect behind the speed turning for home.
7 win
Ex box 7/12
Tri
7/12/3,5,9,10

Good luck today to all us TGenerates hopefully we get back on the Derby trail soon.
John

[Mike C]

I like ete indien\'s line. even with the outside post, his speed is enough to get position, and if he can stalk, rather than set the pace I like him the best.
Having said that Independence Hall could be moving back towards his top, even though they were X\'s, his last 2 races are pointing in the right direction. It should take a 2 year old some significant time to recover from what is about the fastest 2 year old number I have seen. He doesn\'t need to get all the way there, but close to his top may be enough.
Tiz the Law looks great also, but I have this disease where I try to beat the favorite..., to justify it I will point out his last was a 4 point new top (just big enough for concern), and he seems to have trouble in each race (tu notation for every race). Governeur Morris also looks like he could jump up today after running the same number in his 3 yo debut as his 2 yo top, Pletcher trained, has a 2nd in a grade 1.
Anyway, sadly for me today is probably the last day of betting for a while for all of us. Good luck to all and stay inside.

[bfick]

Going to try and knock TTL out of the exacta.  My key will be Gov M who looks like he is sitting on a strong forward moving pattern.  Pletcher a master at getting these type of horses ready to throw big figs in FL this time of year, and this guy may end up 3rd choice despite the hype. Keying GM on top of IH and EI in exacta and tris.  

Good luck!

[johnnym]

I think they are all going for broke plenty of time to recover from whatever effort they give today

[big18741]

Playing #3 Disc Jockey(20-1 ML) to move forward off the slower pairs stretching out.

[big18741]

Guess I should have checked the scratches.

3,4,6,11 out

[johnnym]

With all the scratches I’m changing the play gents

Going with Ete Indien..

Same EX Box Franco worries me
TRI
12/7/3,5,9,10
12/3,5,9,10/7
GL

[JEB]

Anyone give As Seen on TV any chance? His figure two back is competitive and he was bet in the FOY. Nobody was catching Ete Indien that day. Seems worth a flyer.

[Focus959]

Yes, I\'m using him because he broke outwards terribly in the FOY and jock had to take a hold, and now drops to the rail. Second race around 2 turns should improve.

[kencbs]

I\'m playing him with Gov Morris - exacta box

[BitPlayer]

Gulfstream Park
3/28/20
Florida Derby
#  Odds
1   16.7
2   91.1
3   SCR
4   SCR
5   4.9
6   SCR
7   1.3
8   149.9
9   4.2
10  29.1
11  SCR
12  2.3
13  183.2