Road to the Derby

[johnnym]

This weeks stop takes us to the LeComte Stakes run at 1 1/16mile at the Fair Grounds

Tough race to handicap with 10 horses coming in from an of track one coming from the turf one from the Astro dirt. FYI forecast has a chance of rain in it

Numerous horses coming in with very similar #s main contenders in my Opinion

#1 Has shown a improving figure with every race likes coming from of the pace and on the rail top # is a 6 over a SY track trainer not very good in stakes races.
Should be coming late which plays well for this track

#2 Another horse with a improving pattern last out # is a 7.3 over a SY track who wins at 19% graded stakes. Stalker who has a second over this course.
Others just as fast with better odds

#4 Class of the race top # of a 6 last race is a throw our for me regarding how the track was playing. Goes back to Lanerie and More Than Readys do improve.
Question is how sharp will he be. A win contender for sure can I find better odds elsewere?

#9 One of three Asmussens the one I like the best. Has his go to jock and has paired his first two races, jump up very possible here

#10 Casse  and Frenchy has a very respectful # of 6 two races back then regressed slighty on the slop. Like the breeding a lot. Juicy odds at 15-1

#13 Coming in of the Maiden win over this track with the fastest #5.
Going the route here but breeding suggests no problem.
Jockey trainer combo wins at 21% and he has been hitting 32% tops last 90 days
6-1 ML


hearing the 14 is being scratched and going to the Smarty Jones

My play
13 to win hopefully the speed of the speed gets the lead relaxes and takes em around.



Tri part wheel
13/1-2-4-9-10/1-2-4-7-9-10
1-2-4-9-10/13/1-2-4-7-9-10

Good Luck
John

[FrankD.]

Johnny,

Nice write up....

I’m not as impressed with the 13 as you are. He is the speed but I feel his debut was a bit dressed up on a speed favoring off track. I watched a few races from that day and there was not a whole lot of movement. From the outside he may have to work a bit to get the lead and he’s going a lot further than his first trip.

I like the 9, Silver State quite a bit. He should love 2 turns and was down inside in big fields in his first 2. The maiden breaker he was much the best, the CD mile in the slop was an impressive race. His works on 12/31 & 1/6 were very fast works, AssMan does not normally go that fast in the AM.

The Keith D. 12 has a punchers chance to get into the number off his first race.
Broke a step slow in the slop 2 heats after the 13 broke his maiden and ran very erratic and green. He should be 40/1....

Looking like about 1/4 inch of rain overnight in NOLA clearing up late morning.
Good luck,

FD

[johnnym]

Frank
I believe you could make an argument for the majority of the field In this race.
If the favorite doesn’t hit and you can really narrow a ticket it could be a very profitable race.
I also like the two you mentioned but you have to break some eggs
GL
John

[Mike C]

With this big a field, and all the horses numbers close, I am going with longshots, how about the 1, 88-1 last out after being gelded, and ran a very competitive figure, going widest of all finishing 2nd. If he can work an inside trip? Interesting race.

[BitPlayer]

I am interested in him, but he is missing one eye (the right eye, I think).  The trainer doesn\'t like the rail draw for that reason.  I think he would rather Finnick be outside horses so he can see them.  He did get an outside trip in his last and another seems likely today, at least on the second turn.

Regarding his odds in his last, Tiz the Law took a ton of money in that race (3 to 5), which inflated the odds on all the other runners.  I\'ll be interested to see how Finnick gets bet today.

[johnnym]

As a gent on this board learned me first time gelding is a good angle
Second time not to sure
Would not talk anybody of a price horse in this race

[Marlin]

You learn something new every day.  Never heard that angle before & been handicapping for 35 years.  Thanks for sharing, as all makes sense, I sure would also run my butt off, if someone cut off my balls if I didn\'t run well the race before!!

[BitPlayer]

I think he\'s actually a 3d time gelding.  He was reported gelded on the same day as his race two back.  Unless they cut him when they got him back to the barn that day (\"This is what happens when you lose!\"), they probably cut him before that race and then reported it the day of the race.

[johnnym]

Stumble at the break killed me

Oh well onto the Smarty Jones

[johnnym]

This weeks road to the Derby takes us to Oaklawn for the
Smarty Asmussen Jones Stakes

9 runners entered with weight allowance
Asmussen has 4 of the 9 runners entered here
My main contenders

#2) Has run a 6 twice and may be sitting on a move forward 23% to run a new top with his go to jock 5-2

#6) Has won his last two sprinting on a sloppy track pairing he last two #s with a 6 has never been a route, is he a slop specialist?
Asmussen first time route wins at 19% while running new tops 13% of the time.  Looks to be the speed. 5-1

#7) Has the fastest # in the race with a 5.2 Have to assume Asmussen is high on this horse running in 3 GR 1 all ready
Santana got of him to get on the 2 and Tyler is flying in
21% to run a new top 3-1

#8) Casse trainee and Casse doesn’t seem to do his best at Oaklawn winning at 13% clip. Numbers wise has paired his last two #s with 7s
Has a good chance to move forward has the stalking running style 6-1

#9) Has ran a pair of 6s them regressed a bit. Is this a 0-2-X pattern?
Stretching out to a route we’re the trainer wins at 12% first time routes
Trainer ships well winning at 26% has Ortiz on him.
Trainer not to good at Oaklawn but very small sample
Sire is not a big name so a bit of a unknown


My 2 cents do not like this race as much as the Lecomte as far as a investor.
So not going crazy here
My top pick
#7 for the win

The maiden may get a piece underneath,horse he finished second to last out just ran big.

GL

[FrankD.]

Johnny,

I do not consider Three Technique sitting on the X of the 0-2.
His pair of a 6.25 is a healthy sign of a developing 2 yr old, it was not the needed top to fulfill the definition. He regressed with a wide troubled trip and still won the next  heat of an 81 day layoff.

TG numbers do not tell the story of this quirky mile distance at Oaklawn. It’s a very short stretch favoring up close runners on the inner paths. Shoplifter and Three Technique are doubly compromised here by running style and post position.
Nucky & Gold Street should provide a lively pace and Silver Prospector should be able to sit a perfect trip and pounce on the pace setters. Big Advantage vs the outside come from out of it types.....

TBD and certainly not enough of a price to get excited about.

Good luck,

FD

[BitPlayer]

I am with Frank on the 0-2-X issue for Three Technique.  In his last race, he was 0.15 to 1, ridden to take dirt early, and then geared down after quickly disposing of an overmatched field.  Irad almost hit him once in the stretch, but appeared to think better of it.  He still has the two-turn issue to address, and I agree with Frank that the post and prospective trip are not in his favor.  I am not interested at 9/2.

Like you, I think the maiden is interesting, at least underneath.  He would need to move forward, but tis the season and he\'s inside and getting weight (can Geroux make 115?).  We\'ll see if we can actually get 12-1 on a Brad Cox trainee.

I am also considering Lynn\'s Map.  TG had his last race slower than Beyer, and the runner up (Mr. Monomoy) came out of that race to run well in the Lecomte.

Now watch someone wire the field.

[toppled]

I like your write-up, but I do have to comment on the last 2 horses and your trainer comments on those 2.

#8 Casse\'s #s over a long sample are dragged down by meets 4 & 5 years ago, when he was running a lot more horses at Oaklawn than in recent years.  He didn\'t run much at OP in 2017 1 for 1 (Classic Empire in the Ark. Derby) & 2018 0 for 2.  Last year he raced sparingly compared with 2015 & 2016 when he ran 75 times and won 7, but when he showed up in 2019 he meant business going 5 for 16. If Casse comes close to 31% again in 2020, then the 13% long term numbers are irrelevant.  Right now we don\'t know what we\'re getting, but I\'d be inclined not to write off Casse at OP after last years stellar record.

#9 I can\'t call a regression off an almost 3 month layoff an X as part of an 0-2-X pattern. I prefer to see the races closer together to consider the regression meaningful.  Also in that last race TT was geared down the final yards, then in the gallop out was caught but rebroke as he wouldn\'t let the other horses pass him-a very positive sign.  As far as the sample on Englehart he\'s brought 2 longshots to 2 stakes with little chance at OP.  One of them was the speed in American Pharoah\'s Ark Derby that faded at 38-1 once Pharoah passed him.
Englehart has a full stable of horses at OP for the 1st time in his career, so his past history is meaningless.    https://www.oaklawn.com/news/2019/dec/26/trainer-jeremiah-englehart-gearing-first-oaklawn-m/

[BitPlayer]

If anyone is interested, I\'m going to post projected odds (based on DD betting) for the Smarty Jones on Twitter (@ProjectedOdds) once the prior race has been run.  You don\'t have to have a Twitter account to see posts there.

Up to now, I have only done it for NYRA races.  So far, I\'m finding that the actual win payoff is within 15% of the projected win payoff about half the time.  The method is more accurate than that for short-priced horses, presumably due to greater sample size.  The accuracy of the method at Oaklawn could be different.

[johnnym]

Gentlemen may zag here
Sloppy track brings me to the 6
Won his last 2 in the slop will be on the pace With competitive #s
Going with the 6 to win
Ex box 6/7

Maiden getting lots of $$