Road to the Derby

[Mathcapper]

BitPlayer Wrote:
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> I have only analyzed the accuracy of the DD method
> seriously for NYRA.  DRF is obviously casting a
> wider net, and I wonder if the method is less
> accurate for smaller tracks and if using the early
> win betting to refine the DD projections is more
> important there.

I\'ve probably done at least 20K races myself over the years. Haven\'t noticed much of a difference in accuracy between bigger tracks vs. smaller tracks, or between bigger pool vs. smaller pools. The efficiency of the pools seems to hold up just about the same everywhere.

> An aside:  I looked at the Stronach Five this week
> and the payoff seemed light (not substantially
> better than the parlay).  Do I have that right
> and, if so, does that occur often on carryover
> days?  Thanks.

The payoff did indeed come back light, not all that unusual except for the fact that it was a carryover day, which does make it less likely. In looking at the results, I see the 2,5,7 are all listed as winners of the fourth leg (3rd race at SA). Looks to me like there were two late scratches that got put on the winning favorite, which turned the Pk 5 into a semi defacto Pk 4, hence the lower payout.

[BitPlayer]

Thanks.  Great info as always.

[johnnym]

The first of three preps this weekend
Lots of horses jumping up from the Maiden ranks with the Toddster having 3 in here

Contenders
2) Spa City;for the newest jock agent horse has shown a awful lot of development and don’t know if he can keep moving forward improving 7 pts last out.
Local rider on him winning at 25% on his home track.

4) Chance it; Ran a 0 then rattled of three 4s then moved paired his top of a small layoff. Saffie does well at Tampa and the horse has been training like a beast
May be sitting on a new top?

7) Sole Volante; Big winner last out over the local surface has some Derby pts but not enough to get in yet. Very solid pattern and should have pace to close into.
I really like this horse a lot moving forward but a second place finish and a number pair is just fine with one more prep to go.

9) Unrighteous; Still a maiden but a fast one at that jumping up 12 pts last out and getting blinkers. Todd wins at 23% with first time blinkers finished second last out to the 2 horse. 20-1

The play
4 to win
4/9 ex box
4/9/2,4 tri
4/2,4/9 tri
GL

[johnnym]

Don’t understand this cut back to a one turn mile but it’s worth 50 pts to the winner

Contenders

3) War Stopper; Got blinkers last out went to the lead and made a huge 7 pt jump to break his maiden. Jumps straight into a points race
Getting 5lbs

6) Mischevious Alex; Was trying two turns cut back to one turn and ran a pair of 1.
Ships to the Big A were Servis wins at over 20%

The play.
6 to win
3,6 ex box
GL

[Silver Charm]

I bet Alex in his last and he paid good. Seemed logical at the distance and cycling back and freshened. This time around I\'m leary. There was a Casse maiden breaker who took a ton of money and the Jerkins 2YO who won the Saratoga Special took a ton of money. Nobody fired and Alex got the Irad pace rail ride. The 1 says he wins. It was earned in optimal circumstances. I\'m not suggesting throwing him out. I\'m just leary. Servis even said he thought they would keep him sprinting. Sooooo

[johnnym]

San Felipe Stakes
On paper lots of front runners in here
Contenders

2) Honor AP; Was suppose to come back in the 7f SN Vincent but had a issue.
Now comes in of a 5 month layoff were his trainer wins at 15%.
Has a couple of long works under his belt
May need the race

4) Authentic; First of two Baffert’s, I was surprised when I saw his #s thought they would be faster. Won for fun last out and got a bit goofy down the lane.
Should move forward here but 6-5 When others are just as fast

5) Thousand Words; The other Baffert who is bred to go longer 3-3 at Santa Anita and 2-2 at the distance. # wise has run a 3 should be just of the pace for a race with lots of Pace.

6) Storm the Court; Came of the bench to run a nice come back race and his #s show it solid pattern here.
Bullet last drill and gets Rosario who wins at 28% with Eurton.

The Play
#6 to win
GL

[BitPlayer]

I think the race that Honor AP missed was the Sham (in early January), not the San Vicente (in early February).  The work pattern confirms that.  I agree with you that he may need one, but if they bet it that way, I\'ll probably go with him.

[BitPlayer]

Tampa Bay Derby
#  Odds
1   15.6
2   7.2
3   22.0
4   2.3
5   6.0
6   93.5
7   1.7
8   28.0
9   12.3
10  44.1
11  49.6
12  105.7

[BitPlayer]

Gotham
#  Odds
1   73.1
2   36.5
3   10.5
4   3.5
5   11.7
6   1.8
7   12.6
8   7.5
9   40.2
10  4.5
11  43.8

[BitPlayer]

San Felipe
#  Odds
1   84.6
2   3.4
3   28.3
4   1.2
5   2.9
6   3.8
7   127.7

[Silver Charm]

Yesterday in review.

The Tampa race continued to show how much chaos there isbout there. Not specifically because a $100 horse won. But it was the 2nd time a horse who was on Turf switched surfaces and won a Derby Prep Stakes in dirt. This horses form didn\'t look that bad. Usually a $100 winner is a form reversal. Chance It (who I bet) was exposed. The Runnerup is solid. He ran giant in Sam Davis amd was sitting on a little bounce to me.

Mischievous Alex and Authenticity are two more speed horses in a Derby looking loaded with speed

[johnnym]

Moving Forward
TB Derby
As I mentioned Sol is sitting perfect for a peak Derby effort
Especially with the extra distance has the points no pressure. Derby future 25-1
If I handicap the TB Derby today  I still would not of had the winner and not TC nominated for long. Don’t know what to make of the winner.
Wonder what Soffie was thinking after the race? I should of stayed home?

Gotham. No one out of that race has my interest.
Winner ran to form no way do I wager on him around two turns on Derby day.

San Vicente
Authentic ran to how I thought he would strong performance.
Derby future on him is a bargain at 5-1.
Honor AP coming of the layoff ran a very good race as well, got the second place pts and doesn’t need to win next out to make it in.
Storm the court want to see his numbers but looks a step below the top two.

Next week Oaklawn

[Silver Charm]

Gotham winner could be like a Vyjack from a few years ago. Not a real router. Has the points. The Owners are Gamblers and will go to the Derby and have a good time. I\'m not surprised Alex won I just wasnt gonna take a short price because I had no idea what he was running g against. (See Tampa result) Turns out it was nothing.

Chance It and Saffie F\'d up. He likes GP. Ended up 4 wide anyway. Probably ran a figure similar to Runnerup. He would have won NOT FOY but would have been 2nd and had that extra week for Fla Derby.

[boardedup]

The problem with Sol is his running style.  That hasn’t    worked in the derby since like Animal Kingdom or at least around then.  Since the change to points the winner always seems to come from stalking the pace or right off it.  Honor AP might be interesting moving forward.  Maybe the TAP that ran third in Tampa yesterday?  If he can move forward off an “ok” effort he seems to have the right style to factor.

Who knew the only angle that would matter this year is turf to dirt? Long way to go yet

[johnnym]

Agree regarding the running style
Looking forward
Like Silver mentioned may be lots of pace this year.
Ticket bldg wise  keying Sol for 2 or 3 maybe a winning ticket.
Still a ways to go
GL