Road to the Derby

[BitPlayer]

I\'ve only done post mortems on the dirt stakes, but I don\'t see much evidence of a gold rail.  Admittedly, the winners of both divisions of the Risen Star took the shortest way around, but saving ground will always be an advantage.  The winners of the Mineshaft and Rachel Alexandra were both wide around at least one turn, and there were other stakes horses who seem to have run well relative to their tops with an outside trip.  Jbelfior already pointed out Farmington Road in the first division of the Risen Star, and Major Fed also ran well in the second division.

Just anecdotally, the turf may be a different story.  I have heard that the Fair Grounds is in the habit of keeping the rails out most days, and then taking them down on big days.  That would seem likely to make the inside better on big days.

[Tavasco]

This is a little more subjective than Johnnym but a Florida perspective none the less.

Some Of My thoughts

#1 Wells Bayou
IMO, the danger with need to lead types is of course if they don\'t. This one dropped like a stone as in his second race. He may not be the quickest today and will be pressed hard in any case. That\'s a recipe for a fail in my book. You may argue he bounced. I\'ll Pass.

#2 Silver Prospector
I respect his win in the KY Jockey Club. His Smarty Jones is forgivable. The winner was much the best. The mud probably didn\'t help. Another I will move up if the track is dry.

#3 Shoplifted
A bargain @ anywhere near 8/1 m/l. Beat Answer In albeit hardly and is twice the price or more. The colt looks to be a good mover Clearly a use in the minor spots for me.

#4 Gold Street
Trainer Assmussen sure has a lot of horses in training. Absolutely no critism an apparent overachiever and @ 6/1 m/l. He appears at best a medium-sized colt but he sure dominated the Smarty Jones. My favorite.

#5 American Butterfly
Too many starts with too few results for me. Lukas doesn\'t baby them so generally what you see is what you get. I\'ll take a pass.

#6 Chase Tracker
Tap & JV. In from NY via PBD in Fl. Somethings up. They\'ve got some kind of talent here even if they don\'t know what yet. M/L 7/2 mostly a function of reputations. I like that the colt is tractable and has acceleration. It looks to have an upside. Unfortunately not under the radar.

#7 Villainous
Overlooked at the windows in his first race even though trainer Englehart is 19%+ Ist out. Then a complete reversal in form @ OP.A gutsy win in the mud. Hard to know whether he lugged per chart or was ridden to block to 2nd place horse. I\'d trust the TG sheet here and I\'m not looking at it. I like the horses apparent grit but in to deep here, But I think his front running style and a dry track moves him up.

#8 Taishan
I\'m guessing that trainer Baltas either doesn\'t know what he has with this one or the interesting ownership isn\'t concerned about cost. After watching his last two replayed I see no reason to be in this race much less bet on #8. M/L 5/1 means oddsmaker must be enamored with W/o\'s. I will admit this one w/o\'s are noticeable faster than previous tries. I like this colt @ 15/1

#9 Answer In
The Southwest Mile @ Remington and it $400k purse has become an event. Especially in this zip code. The horse imho was disadvantaged a bit by being in close and on the rail for the late stretch in his last. It could just as well have been the winner. What\'s noteworthy is St. Javier got to the rail from the #9 gate on that day. The same challenge today.

Bottom Line For me
If dry 2 or 4 on top and in ebx\'\'s
As a vertical player, I fancy  3,6,& 7 in the under positions.

I think a good score is possible via exacta and/or tri

If wet I won\'t use # 2 in the winning spot.

[johnnym]

GL I’m on him as well

[johnnym]

Looked like he changed leads there for a couple of strides

[BitPlayer]

Oaklawn
2/17/20
Southwest
#  Odds
1   7.1
2   4.3
3   11.0
4   5.4
5   15.6
6   6.9
7   30.1
8   15.7
9   1.4

[BitPlayer]

I see DRF is now building this functionality into its online PP products:

https://promos.drf.com/projectedodds?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=projectedoddsecom&utm_content=projectedodds

Will NYRA Bets and other ADWs follow suit?

[johnnym]

Great card today the Gulf with weather to match.
Today we tackle the FOY going 1 1/16 with allowance weights

Contenders

5) Dennis Moment:has there ever been a more hyped horse with only 2 wins of 4 starts with a TG pattern to match?
He has a back #1 the speed is there but what is he going to do coming of the lay-off? Trainer stakes record isn’t great winning 10%. Last 90 days he has been running 33% new tops and 20% pairs.Has a new jock today as well.
 Favorite but when does the price become playable? Think his odds will go up 3-1

6) As seen on TV:is the fastest horse in the race with a zero last out a 4 pt jump forward. Thoropattern shows good chance pair or new top. First time going two turns but like the breeding on him to handle this.

10)Shotski: Johnny V does really well in this race with a blame colt shipping in. Trainer hires at 19% shipping and 13% stakes. Has run a 3.3 previously then went back a couple on a very heavy Track. Blames can run and improve co high weight

11) Ete Indien: Came in second behind the current derby favorite on this track and ran a new top going two turns on the dirt for the first time. Like the 7F work
28% new top and 25% pair draw was not desirable

12) Chance It: Winner last out beating Asseenontv. Trainer may scratch with a post that does not have a good winning record at this distance.
Ran a new top last out and has been lighting it up in his works.
Likes the track with 4 wins.

The play
Going to watch the odds on DM. If everyone is trying to beat him may be the opposite guy.
Current thought is the 6 to win
With a box EX 6/11
Lots of speed in this race and like the Chad horse to close at 15-1 will
tri
6,11/5,6,10,11,12/7
6,11/7/5,6,10,11,12
GL

[hellersorr]

> Lots of speed in this race and like the Chad horse
> to close at 15-1

You ain\'t the only one. Though 15-1 may not happen.

[Silver Charm]

Put this in the category of I have no info soooo.

For example sake let\'s assume Dennis Moment broke clean in the BC Juvy wired the field and won 2YO Champ. Why would tomorrow in the FOY be any different than say Good Magic a few years back? Raced 3 wide in 3rd the whole trip and came in 3rd. Came back and won\'t the Blue Grass a more prestigious race for Breedinf. So did Brodys Cause owned and trained by the same connections.

I dont expect Dennis to win. If BianCobra can get a repeat of that last All Business effort he could he gone. Lots of lead changes and drifting in the prior Allowance. Chance It wont let him get too far away. No mistakes allowed....

[Mathcapper]

Never thought I\'d see the day. Not sure about that 10mtp adjustment though..

[hellersorr]

What am I missing?

\"We kick ass all the way up until 5 MTP.\"

Well, so what?  I don\'t care what the odds are at 5 MTP.

What I care about is my bet goes into the gate at 9-2, comes out of the gate at 7-2 and walks into the winner\'s circle at 6-5.

Which happened to me.  An extreme example but illustrative.

[Mathcapper]

Hence my point.

If they analyzed 20K races to come up with their algo, they should\'ve seen that the DD Will Pays are the best predictor of final odds (as they in fact stated they found themselves).

So why are they messing around with 10mtp to 5mtp odds which ultimately end up converging on the more accurate Will Pay odds come post time?

[BitPlayer]

Gulfstream
2/29/20
Fountain of Youth
#  Odds
1   19.1
2   SCR
3   106.4
4   116.5
5   1.7
6   3.2
7   6.6
8   39.3
9   26.4
10  12.2
11  2.7
12  SCR

[johnnym]

DM is a fraud
The winner is the real deal had my doubts on that pp
Good meeting the fellas today

[BitPlayer]

Since the Fountain of Youth was the DRF race of the day, I looked to see how the early-win-money adjustments performed.  The only significant adjustments were for Dennis\' Moment and Ete Indian.  In each case, the adjustment moved in the correct direction, but overshot the mark.

I have only analyzed the accuracy of the DD method seriously for NYRA.  DRF is obviously casting a wider net, and I wonder if the method is less accurate for smaller tracks and if using the early win betting to refine the DD projections is more important there.

I see from Twitter that they are not doing this for CDI tracks, presumably because they don\'t have access to the tote data.

An aside:  I looked at the Stronach Five this week and the payoff seemed light (not substantially better than the parlay).  Do I have that right and, if so, does that occur often on carryover days?  Thanks.