Ditto on the empathy for Maximum Security, Luis Saez, Mr. Servis and the Wests.  Not the most cuddly bunch of riffraff\'s but their horse has been nothing but a good boy, even if he\'s green, he\'s still learning and should get better if he (hopefully) stays sound.

Furthermore, his rider Luis has already had to deal with heavy life stuff like his baby bro Juan Saez passing after his horse fell at Indiana Grand.  17yo kid was a decent rider just getting started around these circuits, but now lay prone on the track on a mid-October night, dead before he could drink.  That\'s enough to mess with any 27yo person but then also realize he had to deal with the vitriol and absurd accusations about buzzers and Will Take Charge up at Saratoga.

I just have tons of respect for how Luis has persevered and refocused, and to take this type of win away from a young man like him is soul-crushing.  Here\'s hoping Luis has the wherewithal to keep on-keepin on. But that\'s just my opinion...  Servis just seems like a crabby Grandpa who wants to be left alone so he can enjoy his horses and train sets while he can.  

It was wrong to take that feeling of joy away from the connections from his groom to Mr. West, and that\'s my biggest issue with the DQ.  I can\'t sympathize with folks who so capriciously, meekly, and messily ignored the heft of the event and the lives that would change following their stewards decisions, and, accordingly after 22mins, as Indiana Jones would say, they \"chose poorly\".

Enough downer talk--just for comparison, here\'s the 2011 BC Mile https://youtu.be/7_JY35JjPt8 staring Goldikova at CD.  #spoileralert there\'s quite the late move she makes, and I bet you\'ll NEVER guess how it was handled?😉

I\'m wading in pretty easy tomorrow (plus I have to work then have lunch with my girlfriends who just don\'t understand that Saratoga is >>>> the pool.)

As such, I\'m more observing than playing on Friday but do believe I\'ll use a few of my #Huddie bullets on Snowfire 6-1 in the Schuylerville; and potentially either Beshert and Gold Shield in R7 as each has robust odds along with a few things each going in their directions so we\'ll see.

My big play tomorrow may focus around Nacho\'s filly in the other stakes.  She\'ll be about the longest price on the board but gets a sweet little 115lb impost, giving weight to EVERYBODY else in the field, and a cozy run saving ground where she\'ll have plenty of pace to change if she can get clear.  Furthermore, this filly is right there in terms of ability and should really appreciate a cutback from 9F and wide post of the Regret (where she still ran a close 5th).

He line is definitely progressive and apparently portends for a 39% new top.  Also that running line two back when 2nd vs freaky-good colt Sonic Boom looks pretty compelling combined with the fact Nacho is firing caliente right now, I gotta have a little taste of big odds on Fizzy Friday.

I too was slightly worried about the workout pattern but Steve Haskin tweeted @ me and said the 3wks post-race is Graham\'s routine and that the colt will workout this Sat/Sun before vanning to Louisville Mon/Tues of next week.

I went back and looked and that\'s the schedule IWC was on for all his other starts.  For funsies, I also went back and looked at the workouts for Went the Day Well who ran 4th in KYD a few yrs back for GHM and he too was on the 3wks post-race regimen.

If you want to consider the Wood a huge improvement and a knockout effort, that\'s a valid assessment but I\'m willing to put my thumb over the FoY as a bad day (even Russ Westbrook has \'em) and consider that, ostensibly, Irish War Cry is the most consistently fast runner in this Derby at a route, period.

Classic Empire has a similar (and arguably less progressive) record but now we have two dud races instead of one, lost training time compared to almost none, and a value proposition of him being 3-1 to Irish War Cry\'s 7-1.

None of these horses are perfect but Irish War Cry has the value, the talent, the right style, and is in the right hands to win a Derby whereas bettors of Classic Empire will be eating chalk and holding their breath.

That\'s my rationale at this point, but I\'d be lying if I said I didn\'t want to see a fresh and frisky Irish following this final workout.

West Point Stables also bought into AD a few weeks ago so that certainly is going to depress his odds even more.  Those that fancy him can have him because he\'s not for me--he feels like a Zulu 2.0.

It\'s hard to completely trust Gunnevera especially at 6/5 because he not only doesn\'t need these points to make the Derby field but also has a potential bounce and poor post to overcome.  Bouncing to the point he\'s off the board would be very surprising to me at least because his prior two regressions were only by about 2 points each time(and that includes when he hit a 6 point new top at 2YO at SAR).  He could bounce by 5-6 points and still be in the mix due to the number of duds in here.

It doesn\'t hurt either that Gunnevera is accustomed to carrying the 122lb of today\'s race while he\'s had to give weight to much of the field in his past several races.

While I don\'t love Gunnevera in the FL Derby, there\'s little else to chose from in the field and the horse is pretty darn serious every time Castellano is on his back.  Probably going to try some tris and supers using 1,2,10 up and down with 11.  The one could end up being a WPS bet for me at his ML because he just kind of hangs around enough to maybe pull a Shackleford.

Battalion Runner should have perhaps gone ahead and run here since the other TAP ain\'t winning and BR would have a real tough time not finishing 1st or 2nd.


Like Guest Suite and his improving figs quite a bit in the LA Derby.  He too is used to today\'s weight with two wins under 122lb while Girvin and Hero got 4lbs from him last out.

Lookin at Lee also shipped out with Gun Runner last Tues and worked 5F over the weekend at Santa Anita.

Not This Time was on the track at SA this morning looking swell.  Those may be the only two non-CA horses for the Juvy who\'ve arrived at SA.

Daddy\'s Lil Darlin for the Juv Fillies has been there since last week too and worked over the weekend.  That filly isn\'t bad.

Mind Your Biscuits has also been at SA for a few days.  Texas Chrome was shipping in today I believe.

Both of the G1 sprints were so tricky for me but I agree this is where you\'ll get value in P4.

FWIW Mohaymen was on the vets list for shockwave up thru that bullet work last weekend which got him removed.  I don\'t know if it\'ll help his performance or if he\'s really a bit ouchy at the moment, but I\'m not sure I want to find out at 4-1.

I\'m with you on Rated R Superstar and believe he\'s getting no respect considering the form he\'s kept since last summer.  Frankly this horse was not bred to go beyond a mile (and that\'s pushing it), but he remained game even while running in all those routes.

I saw him beat Jazzy Times in person at CD In May and was very impressed.  He was gelded since Rushaway, and when he finally got back to sprinting on 5/30 he had ditched the Lasix and added back on the blinkers.  He came from way far back to run down Jazzy and Twizz for Maker and win going away.

He paired his 2yo top that day and predictably improved again in a usual condition move that saw him run down MGSW Awesome Banner on his South Florida home track in the middle of summer.  The 3 pt new top that day isn\'t that extreme given the 5pt top he ran at 2 in his 3rd start and subsequently paired in start 4.

Rated R Superstar is undefeated sprinting and has found new focus with the castration and blinders as well as a clever move to get him off Lasix (perhaps in an attempt to keep him more hydrated and maintain weight).

This colt is G1P, a G2W, will get pace to chase and only gives 2lb to his lower odds and perhaps less talented comrades in here.

At 20-1 I think he\'s a fun use along with Ian\'s Bird Song a horse who is rapidly improving I all metrics and is 30-1ML.  Fish Trappe Road cutting back and trippin out nicely is my main A horse.

Has to be a thread on the most interesting handicap race of the summer, no?  

My question is mostly for Mr. Jerry or any other TG Sheets gurus (you know who you are) regarding the Thoro-Pattern:

Curious if you\'d rather take the TG Pattern % at face value and bet Dortmund ~7/2 at equal weight as Chrome knowing Dortmund was probably cranked last out yet still lost even giving weight while also getting an inside trip but is still 17% to run a new top off his -1ish efforts, or take the less-fast 3yo Dalmore who gets weight from the entire field in addition to also being 25% to run a new top plus at a big 15-1+ price to boot?

In other words and long story short, What\'s the most important variable in the betting equation when factoring in TG Pattern %s?  Prior figs, odds, today\'s weight, etc or combo of them all?

Fwiw, based on figs and history, I think Chrome will win today and Beholder will run gallantly chasing in defeat, but at perhaps a major cost to her form going forward.  Still matters not as she remains (I think) the fastest 2yo of either sex on TG with that -2 back before her BC Juv Fillies.  She\'s for sure an HoF animal and Chrome is likewise knocking on that door if he hasn\'t already RSVP\'ed.

Not that I\'m talking anyone off 20-1s but morning Line aside, I\'m curious why people would be so eager to bet this one, especially at less than 20-1.

Per the workouts, this guy looks like a big, lanky, goofy tween who wants more than 6F, especially first time out.

There is a much better option at 20-1 earlier in the card for those who did their homework and the price should hold as well.

Compare and watch the works of 747 (http://www.obssales.com/juncatalog/2016/747.mp4), Favorable Outcome (http://www.obssales.com/marcatalog/2016/246.mp4 super nice, fluid lead change), and even the Properity Mo (http://www.obssales.com/juncatalog/2016/447.mp4) out of that same OBS June (the outlet mall of 2yos sales, no disrespect) and tell me why you feel most confident betting the 9 in R7 because I\'m really curious to know if there is something I\'m not seeing.  Chad\'s looks and reads as if it\'s the most likely winner here, and he even outworked that Mirai recently.

I likewise see that Ingrid\'s worked with a FTS winner (but DQed) at Arlington but that\'s a long way from SAR imho.  Furthermore, even if this 9 did look like it had some precocity about it, the pedigree is sporadic and relatively unproductive, especially for 2yos on dirt.  I can read a sire list like anyone else and while Tiz Wonderful is fine with FTS, they typically aren\'t as gawky as this one and he\'s not exactly tearing things up recently, hence why he was exported last Spring.

Godspeed if you decide to go all-in on Ingrid\'s (PS she hasn\'t won with a FTS on dirt in 2yrs) but I think if Chad doesn\'t win then Rudy, Ron or Steve (the 3/4 to Pyro & Longview Dr., and full to early SW War Echo) are on deck, then followed by Ingrid, DWL, and Ward.

if I\'ve totally misread this race, please school me because I was planning on singling Favorable Outcome.  All of these reasons likewise make me think the 20-1 ML is legitimate.  Anything less than maybe 12-1 feels like a dangerous underlay.

I was thinking this same thing (though doubtful I could\'ve stated it more elegant and tactful than you did).  Such a difficult scenario dealing with an athlete who\'s also an addict and I can\'t even begin to imagine the stress and conflict that comes with the pressure to perform combined with trying to (once again) dry out.

As one who\'s played sports their whole life as well as been around substance abusers and their struggle to not use I can\'t help but wonder if it\'s in his best interest to go ahead and say he needs to focus on himself right now and take off the mount.  I mean, imagine if Exaggerator loses and the questions that would be asked (perhaps unfairly) about Kent\'s focus, health/fitness, and mental state coming into a race with the heft and rigor of the Belmont Stakes.  That type of scrutiny alone could be a potential relapse trigger.

It\'s his decision and I won\'t pretend to know what\'s best for Kent or how he\'s coping.  I will though hope he and his family are getting the support and help they need to get through this and that Kent has the tools to get healthy and find peace.

Re: Discreet Angel.  I don\'t have any line on those races at Camarero but I do know this is the same owner as My Wandy\'s Girl who was imported and won a stakes right off the boat for Hushion and eventually won the G2 Barbara Fritchie.  

That one had some steam when she came in and this guy is a surprise guest so maybe that\'s the clue as to expectations in the little stakes Saturday.

No idea about hockey (horse racing seems to have a lot of hockey fan crossover for some reason...) but I\'m convinced teams can bounce too just like a horse and base that on them all being athletes giving superior efforts which drains them for the next performance.  

Consider too that unless it\'s the last game of the season, teams play much closer together than horses race back which only can exacerbates the effect even with guys on the bench who can sub in.

One instance I can think of immediately is Wisconsin in the 2015 Final Four game vs Kentucky to go to the NCAA Tournament Final game.  Wisconsin played their butts off and got revenge on a UK team squad that beat Badgers late rounds of 2014 Tournament.  Long story short, they left it all on the court vs Cats and Wisc essentially \"bounced\", playing listless and flat a few days later in a loss to an inferior Duke team in the Championship.

Likewise, I would not be surprised to see Cavs throw in an \"X\" or off-night Game 2 or Game 3 based on the unnecessary blowout last night or Thunder to cycle back around to their normal efforts allowing Warriors to regain foothold in that series.

Are you looking at something proprietary because I looked about 4 different places trying to help and couldn\'t find any run line/location discrepancies.  I don\'t play much Sunland or Turf Paradise or Los Al QH but I have found that horses who race in their TB-QH mixed heats WILL have those run lines show up in PPs on TFUS and a program I use through HDW (although without figs) even if they don\'t on DRF/Brisnet.  TFUS and HDW are two of the places I looked for this guy and no sign of KRI unfortunately.

I do know that like Trial races such as the Aiken Trials for 2yos and those \"underground\" ones out in Utah aren\'t reported to Equibase since they aren\'t \"official\" events so it\'s possible this horse participated in something similar but based on his recent visibility either working or racing that seems unlikely.

Would be nice for this fella to fire today because it\'s been a long time between drinks for Bauer, who was an assistant to Kenny and someone I\'ve known to be a sharp young horseman with a good reputation.  I think they had a horse go wrong in a race just yesterday so a win today would be good for morale all around, and this one should get some pace to chase and be rolling late on the cutback.

I know bettors LOVE to hate Navarro and get even more incredulous of his skills win Señor Jorge gasp! does what his job is to do, which is win.  That song and dance is so trite and he doesn\'t need my no-name defending him, but the fact is Jorge won this race last year as well with Private Zone so maybe the guy really does know how to get the cash on the Big Day with a sprinter.

Add in the recent courageous exploits of XY Jet in drug-free Dubai and Private Zone in the 2015 BC Sprint and it begins to makes sense that perhaps he can really get sprinters to peak when it matters, and overall is able to do so with less \"classy\" stock.

And frankly, Catalina made sense at odds considering HB doesn\'t want 7F, Calc and Salutos figured to regress off the Carter, Speighter had fitness questions while facing elders for the first time, and Limousine Liberal was still looking for his first stakes win.

Barbados is the one who I\'m really puzzled about and thought he would bounce back off the dreadful ride he got in the Commonwealth but maybe he\'s more of just a Florida horse.

Navarro\'s other stakes winner last Sat, Sharp Azteca, looks like an easy toss if he shows up as anticipated in the Preakness.  This fella is turning into a bonafied every-other kind who\'s not only coming in with an \"other\" effort likely off the slight new top but also short rest.  I have similar concerns about Nyquist in that same race but all the Internet smartypants tell me that\'s crazy talk, there\'s no way he\'s not winning this Preakness even given the copious speeds, short rest, 2pt new top, the presence of continuously improving Gun Runner, and a volatile Kent D who is riding Exaggerator so determinedly it\'s to the point of reckless.

Land Over Sea also wheeling right back in the Black Eyed Susan and likewise seems to be one to maybe take stand against at a probable short price, although her competition could likely be much less talented than what her stablemate will face.

I have clips of Mo Tom and Lani both at the end of their works on my Vine account and Mohaymen in the lane through the wire on my IG if you\'re interested.

I was told ahead of time Lani was going to gallop 1mi and \"work\" 5F which is exactly what he did.  His \"work\" was not of the American style so a little unfair I think to judge it on time.  I will say his lack of speed might prove very disadvantageous as I don\'t think he can finish like some of the better closers also in this Derby.  Likewise, as are a great many Tapits, he is pretty flighty and spooky and still seems a bit unfamiliar with the surrounding for a horse who\'s been at CD as long as he has.  He will be ridden by Japan\'s greatest jockey so that\'ll be fun to see at least.

You all were right--Mohaymen is a little guy, but clearly not a horse who looks like he lacks class.  I have nothing to compare his work yesterday but am taken aback slightly by his pinned ears throughout as that\'s not typically a great signal.  But maybe that\'s how he always works...

The Tapit I did like yesterday was Creator, who I\'m feeling even more after seeing his AR Derby TG.  I don\'t know if his # was 3w4w-based, but he is a BIG colt who\'s clearly started figuring things out and he might be fit and dangerous right back in the Derby.  Same wih Suddenbreakingnews, who looks very live and is one of the fastest in the race.  (And at least SBN\'s off the board effort two back was just a slight regression unlike Mohaymen\'s FL Derby)


The cheese may stand alone, but speaking as someone who bet I\'ll Have Another his entire (short) 3yo season, I have some misgivings about Nyquist\'s KYD preparations.  He is doing so much jogging (and only going about a mile) and relatively little galloping that I\'m curious about his fitness a little.  That work last week was supposedly a mile be he maybe got out of an open gallop the last quarter, and even then he didn\'t seem to ever get rolling.

I hope someone contradicts me on that because I\'d like to be proven wrong about him, and he throw down in his work tomorrow, but I\'m a little worried he\'s coming in a bit soft.

He can win on Saturday I guess and pace scenario might favor him once again, but I\'m not a big Cupid fan in general and am secretly hoping he airs in AR Derby because the grey/Baffert/Bodemeister/Pharaoh angles will make him a popular horse and he\'s an absolutely toss for me in KYD.

Tapit is so sketchy for the Derby to begin with but this guy just doesn\'t seem as \"special\" as even maybe The Factor.  DRF are fawning over him but I tend to trust how slow he is on TG/Sheets.  And it\'s not like Cherry Wine\'s Bluegrass really flatters the Rebel much.

More than anything, that 7lb weight swing is the pits for Cupid plus he has now gives 4lb to Whitmore, Dazzling Gem (who actually now drops 4lb off LA Derby), etc.  

Gettsburg is likewise slow, overrated, in a bad post and will get some tote action so he\'s an easy dismissal too.

I like Dazzling Gem especially at 12-1 ML plus he\'s already beaten a few of these inclu #5 at 8-1 ML.  Whitmore is OK on TG and I understand why people fancy him but he wants to hang a bit too much for my taste.