Pacific Classic

[mlnolan00]

Has to be a thread on the most interesting handicap race of the summer, no?  

My question is mostly for Mr. Jerry or any other TG Sheets gurus (you know who you are) regarding the Thoro-Pattern:

Curious if you\'d rather take the TG Pattern % at face value and bet Dortmund ~7/2 at equal weight as Chrome knowing Dortmund was probably cranked last out yet still lost even giving weight while also getting an inside trip but is still 17% to run a new top off his -1ish efforts, or take the less-fast 3yo Dalmore who gets weight from the entire field in addition to also being 25% to run a new top plus at a big 15-1+ price to boot?

In other words and long story short, What\'s the most important variable in the betting equation when factoring in TG Pattern %s?  Prior figs, odds, today\'s weight, etc or combo of them all?

Fwiw, based on figs and history, I think Chrome will win today and Beholder will run gallantly chasing in defeat, but at perhaps a major cost to her form going forward.  Still matters not as she remains (I think) the fastest 2yo of either sex on TG with that -2 back before her BC Juv Fillies.  She\'s for sure an HoF animal and Chrome is likewise knocking on that door if he hasn\'t already RSVP\'ed.

[TGAB]

The Thoro-Pattern is a mechanical formulation driven by the distance and surface of today\'s race for horses that have run at least six times broken out by age of the racer for 3 month segments, July through September here.

For the horses used to generate the Thoro-Pattern the three races of the pattern conform to today\'s distance (route or sprint) and surface (dirt or turf) and the three runs comprising the pattern occurred within 42 days of today and each preceding race. The \"effective\" top being measured came within the six races prior to the three comprising the pattern unless a top occurred within the pattern which then takes effect.

But distinctions are NOT made when sheets are output. For Dortmund the Thoro-Pattern is pr-top-pr based on the initial effective top of 0-1/2 in Feb 2015 superseded by the -1-1/2 last time out. The 3 race sequence is all dirt and all routes which fits the Thoro-Pattern but Dortmund layoffs in mid-2015 and 2016 are not taken into account nor is the performance level at which each of the runners perform.

The point being is that the Thoro-Pattern does not hold for Dortmund because the timing of his efforts do not comport to the pattern. So the Thoro-Pattern can never be taken at face value. One has to determine whether it fits or not and then one has to consider just how fast the horse(s) in question is running--at some point tops cease.

The good news though is that in a lot of cases Thoro-Pattern does hold and is an effective measure as to how the horse in question will run today. Whether that\'s good enough to garner an award and/or prompt a wager is obviously for the handicapper to determine given the conditions of the race.

[Dana666]

Beholder has a very similar sheet pattern to last year. Of course, this renewal is far stronger; still, I think she\'s the one in here, especially with Chrome drawing the rail. She is my strongest play of the day. If you look at her prep race, the fractions were just a few ticks slower than Dortmund and Chrome in their prep. That\'s saying something. Mandella seems to know exactly what he\'s doing. It\'ll bite.  Good luck to all.

[johnnym]

Ty for that education

[Chas04]

if pappa Mandella is the Master then Chad Brown is Genghis KING khan II passed the absurd levels ages ago goin for big 5 0 at the spa

[Wrongly]

No way does Beholder run a top here, terrible play!  Hop has a figure to run back to and will be a price, no chrome fan but have to use off the pair up.  Maybe Imperative can slug up for 3rd and give me a payday.