The Kings Bishop

[Tavasco]

This year\'s rendition has a lot of accomplished and interesting horses.

I\'m not an accomplished pattern reader, I\'ll leave that analysis to others. I don\'t have any backstretch confidential I\'ll leave that steam to others. With a few horses already fast enough to win and a few others capable of improvements, I am thinking the race dynamics and trip are key... my analysis of same follows.  

The first puzzle I want to resolve is Summer Revolution. Drawn well in PP #3 for a front running type. But, this one has not led @ the 1st call yet. His strength appears to be he just doesn\'t slow down much at all. In this race with Fish Trappe Road to the inside in PP #2 likely to break on top Summer Revolution in my view may not make the lead until after they have run 4F complicating his trip are the two SoCal horses, Jazzy Times and Drefong closing down on him from the outside. With Saint Javier up the inexperienced colt is in good hands. I just don\'t expect SR to get the early lead and if not can this one still get a winning trip? Is the m/l of 6/1 reasonable.

I believe the race winner will come from this front running group. Fish Trappe Road doesn\'t have enough of an early advantage or late kick so he\'ll fade in the stretch (but his a.m. worktab hints that he may run off early will that affect those used to no one in front of them?). Drefong is surely compromised by the outside PP and either loses ground leaving, at best, a minor placing. Jazzy Road less compromised by the post, appears to me to be RR\'s main competition. With a m/l of 8/1 another who seems worth the price.

I don\'t see any horse making up any ground until late stretch when our locomotive closers try and pick up the minor placings. Although, Mike Smith & Drefong may be reserved some what early. Bejarano on Jazzy Road probably not. I expect Star Hill and Mind Your Biscuits to make strong middle move but where can they go maybe they can save some ground by joining Tail of Svali on the inside behind the speed. I just see this group as traffic needing to navigate around FTR and unable to get a check. They will not be on any of my tickets.

The Late Closers (and ground loss specialists) Tom\'s Ready & Rated R Superstar will be running well late yet have left too much to do. I also expect Birdsong to be in the running for Super maybe even Tri placings.

The Wild Cards Economic Model. Gets to save ground. Should be able to run his race at the 7F distance. Gets I. Ortiz, Gets chumpy (is that what MIFF calls him?) While a nice horse, probably better at 1M, maybe C. Brown will try him on the lawn. As far as gray horses (Mohaymen) I prefer Creator\'s chances and price better. Noholdingbackbear gets a m/l 10/1 he has been quick early on WO\'s artificial surface where it\'s hard to carry one\'s speed a jump up candidate? Sure can\'t fault his accomplishments. Handled dirt just fine in SoFLa.

Box Baffert & Rudy R. for exacta and trifecta add Rated R. Superstar on the bottom of the tri & super he must be in great shape to be working so leisurely in the morning.

How good is Drefong? Favored from post #13 and has to get around the Canuck. I think favoritism here is the celebrity thing,

I like this race! Where is the value?

[mlnolan00]

Both of the G1 sprints were so tricky for me but I agree this is where you\'ll get value in P4.

FWIW Mohaymen was on the vets list for shockwave up thru that bullet work last weekend which got him removed.  I don\'t know if it\'ll help his performance or if he\'s really a bit ouchy at the moment, but I\'m not sure I want to find out at 4-1.

I\'m with you on Rated R Superstar and believe he\'s getting no respect considering the form he\'s kept since last summer.  Frankly this horse was not bred to go beyond a mile (and that\'s pushing it), but he remained game even while running in all those routes.

I saw him beat Jazzy Times in person at CD In May and was very impressed.  He was gelded since Rushaway, and when he finally got back to sprinting on 5/30 he had ditched the Lasix and added back on the blinkers.  He came from way far back to run down Jazzy and Twizz for Maker and win going away.

He paired his 2yo top that day and predictably improved again in a usual condition move that saw him run down MGSW Awesome Banner on his South Florida home track in the middle of summer.  The 3 pt new top that day isn\'t that extreme given the 5pt top he ran at 2 in his 3rd start and subsequently paired in start 4.

Rated R Superstar is undefeated sprinting and has found new focus with the castration and blinders as well as a clever move to get him off Lasix (perhaps in an attempt to keep him more hydrated and maintain weight).

This colt is G1P, a G2W, will get pace to chase and only gives 2lb to his lower odds and perhaps less talented comrades in here.

At 20-1 I think he\'s a fun use along with Ian\'s Bird Song a horse who is rapidly improving I all metrics and is 30-1ML.  Fish Trappe Road cutting back and trippin out nicely is my main A horse.

[Tavasco]

Do you know anything about Tiz Shea D\'s absence or return tomorrow?

[jerry]

I\'m going with layered exactas of

3,13
2,3,13
2,3,7,13
2,3,7,9,13

[mjellish]

Tomk\'s Ready is an interesting horse to me in this spot.  Eventful trip in the Woody Stephens on Belmont Day, to say the least, in his first race cutting back to a sprint.  He popped a number that would put him on the borderline of being a contender here.  He\'s had 2 months to get over that effort and the stress of being on the Derby trail.  Been working well in the morning from what I understand, was in a team drill in the AM and ran away from that \"hopeless longshot\" that Jimbo just mentioned - the one who beat My Man Sam earlier in the meet.  I wouldn\'t expect Tom to make a major forward move today, but if he can move forward 1 point with the right trip he could get a piece of this at decent odds.  I\'m probably going to key him.

[Tavasco]

Post Position 13 no problem Mike Smith saves ground this Gio Ponti is a fast one.

and another C. Brownie.