FL Derby

[JohnTChance]

Test.

[jimbo66]

Sort of surprised to read from a few folks on this thread who are board regulars, talking about Gunnevara in a positive light.

Really?  LEt\'s see, he gets an EXTREMELY favorable pace set up his last race, which he doesn\'t figure to get today, he comes into this race off a 5 point top with this the race BEFORE the Derby, where he needs to peak, and \"oh by the way\", let\'s give him post 11, which at this distance is somewhere around 1% win rate.  Oh yes, and you are going to get 4/5 on the horse, best case.

Geez.  I know there are almost no \"have to\" rules in betting horses, but this horse has to be tossed for any of those reasons.  

The problem is who to play in the race.

First Dreamin has a hard to believe series of figs on TG.  I get his last figure, but two back seems incredibly slow.  Figures aside for a second, Pletcher scratches Battalion runner, who seemingly would have been a solid second choice, to let this guy run.  And as TGJB points out, the horse is working like a monster when paired with any of TAPs other runners.  4-1 second choice on the ML a terrible value play, but I will use horizontally because Gunnevara won\'t be on any of my tickets.  

I guess I like State of Honor best.  seems to be flatlining on his pattern, but now sheds blinkers and if Gunnevara runs poorly, which I expect, this guy just pairing up from the rail may be enough.  Very shaky at the distance, but as much as I hate Frenchie the jockey, one thing he is good at is conserving energy for a horse and maybe he trips out.

I will guess that some TG users will like Three Rules off his string of figures.  And I can\'t blame them.  But I think he is a sprinter and as much as I doubt the distance a bit for State of Honor, I double doubt the distance for this guy.  Will be a defensive multi-race use.

Talk Logistics, at 30-1 on the ML, with an inside post, is a must-use for me.  HE is one point slower than the rail horse, lightly raced enough to improve.  And the price will be huge.  Wish it was somebody besides Bravo, but the price compensates.

Will be looking for Gunnevara to be nowhere, with STate of Honor, Talk Logistics and First Dreamin my main uses, with a \"B\" on Three Rules.

Good luck.

Jim

[RICH]

fwiw my workout report has battalion runner working out a lot better than AD.

[mlnolan00]

West Point Stables also bought into AD a few weeks ago so that certainly is going to depress his odds even more.  Those that fancy him can have him because he\'s not for me--he feels like a Zulu 2.0.

It\'s hard to completely trust Gunnevera especially at 6/5 because he not only doesn\'t need these points to make the Derby field but also has a potential bounce and poor post to overcome.  Bouncing to the point he\'s off the board would be very surprising to me at least because his prior two regressions were only by about 2 points each time(and that includes when he hit a 6 point new top at 2YO at SAR).  He could bounce by 5-6 points and still be in the mix due to the number of duds in here.

It doesn\'t hurt either that Gunnevera is accustomed to carrying the 122lb of today\'s race while he\'s had to give weight to much of the field in his past several races.

While I don\'t love Gunnevera in the FL Derby, there\'s little else to chose from in the field and the horse is pretty darn serious every time Castellano is on his back.  Probably going to try some tris and supers using 1,2,10 up and down with 11.  The one could end up being a WPS bet for me at his ML because he just kind of hangs around enough to maybe pull a Shackleford.

Battalion Runner should have perhaps gone ahead and run here since the other TAP ain\'t winning and BR would have a real tough time not finishing 1st or 2nd.


Like Guest Suite and his improving figs quite a bit in the LA Derby.  He too is used to today\'s weight with two wins under 122lb while Girvin and Hero got 4lbs from him last out.

[jimbo66]

Minolan,

Not all forward moves are the same.  The 6 point new top last year was during august of his 2 year old season.  Horses jump all the time that early in their development.

This is a 5 point new top, to a negative 2 and change.  How many 3 year olds run negative 2 in February and don\'t regress?  Smarty Jones?  This guy ain\'t Smarty Jones, at least you can\'t bet him like he is.

As for how far he bounces, if he bounces, there is never a limit.  You won\'t get more factors going against an odds on favorite then you get going against Gunnevara.

[jbelfior]

Five of last 11 winners came out of posts 2-4.

I\'m thinking State of Honor goes off less than his 8-1 ML. Wheels getting wobbly on that wagon.

Bravo\'s horse good value. A Majesto-like clean inside trip can get him in the number.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[ruthlessman]

I have watched both AD and BR\'s last 3  workouts. AD, in my opinion is working really really well. Much more impressive than BR.
Battalion\'s last workout was much improved over his previous couple which were fair.
Numbers, and pace figures on AD are incredibly slow. If he was losing posting those numbers there would be no discussion. But he is winning, and winning so easily while setting ridiculously slow fractions. Hard to post a decent number with pace and caliber of horses he has been facing.
Can he run well late after running an honest pace early? We will see today.
I do not think there is going to be much value here either. 7/2-3/1.
That being said, I am playing AD. His workouts are just too good to dismiss. I know I am not going to make a living with moves like this but I am going with my gut here.

[Tavasco]

Did you notice anything that would confirm the report that AD was rank in his last two works?

[Tavasco]

I just watched the last two w/o videos from the xb site and and that horse looked hard to handle for the first 2F. Tossing and dipping his head fighting the rider.

I am no expert or even a lay person in reading w/o\'s but the impression I got was the horse was in charge and the rider did nothing to encourage him. Further looks as if it may be difficult to keep this one out of the lead.

What a contradiction c/b he must lead and then throttles back but geez those are fast works @ PBD and while a short distance he did not really break off either. I\'d say he does impress.

Now carrying that short speed for a mile and 1/8 like TGJB says \"we shall see\" He also runs with his head a little low.

[ruthlessman]

I agree he was tossing his head and throwing it about. But once engaged he was all business. Looked a bit headstrong as well. but my overall impression was that while looking like he wanted to do more early it did not affect how he finished up, and his gallop out was terrific.
I am not trying to tell anyone to play him, but I think this one could be a real racehorse.