FL Derby

[johnnym]

First thought weak field, Gunny getting the outside post with his come from behind style may not be as much of an issue.
Going to be warm here Saturday.

[Silver Charm]

Ha entry seen the overall Card yet but I did notice that Pletcher and Brown sent almost nothing to FG. And it\'s a fairly rich Card.

[alydar61]

Liked Battalion Runner here but since he is likely to scratch for SA Derby don\'t like this race at all now.

[firmturf]

Why ship when you can stay home and run in 5-7 horse fields.

[johnnym]

Actually looking like the Wood for BR.
I sure don\'t understand why you ship when you have a weak field GR1 in your own backyard.

[Silver Charm]

Excellent point. Was a little disappointed with some of the field sizes. Keeneland is coming get also and there are some bigger rages there than these $100,000 Stakes on Saturday

[Niall]

A lot of these horses have common ownership as in St Elias is same as Vialo Racing and Brooklyn Boys is MEB, so they are running against themselves. Divide and conquer I guess, and get to the KY Derby any way possible!!

[Tavasco]

My first thought was also... seems a week field. The defection of Battalion Runner supports that view.

But the issue is? a logical strategy to make some money.

Scenario A
#11 Gunnevera is hard to fault. If he flops then the tote will produce some attractive $\'s. That is a big if. Has his campaign worn him down? His running style and pilot make a bad trip a bad bet. Other than a collapse the two chances would seem to be: a) he can\'t catch #1 State of Honor or #10 Three Rules or b) #4 Always Dreaming out kicks him late.

So buying into this perspective suggests win bets on #1 & #10.
and/or
While I\'m not yet sold on #4 Always Dreaming (the 4/1 m/l seems short & his last race had such a slow pace). Grudgingly either put him on top of some verticals with the 1,10,11 or toss him - still contemplating c/b a post time decision.

Scenario B
Another possibility is a long shot dark horse jumps up and either wins or delivers a pumped up vertical. Stab options from this perspective seem to be keep one or the other of the top two favorites out of the tri or super and get a double digit horse in. Which? There are several candidates. I\'m passing on the Sky Mesa & Adios Charlie colts. Three entrants from Harlan Holiday each of which seem to be disappointments to their connection\'s investment to date yet sent out by competent trainers with capable jockeys. My view is the most under the radar choice is #2 Talk Logistics @ m/l 30/1 I\'m imagining Plesa drew a line through his last or may have liked it (knowing something that I don\'t).

Scenarion Simple
Single Gunne in horizontals.

Just a Thursday night perspective with plenty of time to second guess myself. Certainly would welcome some kibitzing or even better some insight.

[Niall]

Not sure how \"insightful\" this will be, but happy to share. As I previously mentioned, the TAP entries have common ownership and were BIG $$ purchases. However they were not purchased by TAP Bloodstock but by St Elias/Brooklyn Boys et al. To the best of my recollection they have had little success in terms of ROI. Always Dreaming hung like a NY Bred rat at Saratoga while with Schettino. He\'s gonna take money because of the connections but I\'m happy to let him beat me. State of Honor may sit a perfect trip from the 1 and may relax enough (blinks off) on a speed favoring track (assumption) to steal it. As for Gunnevera getting a bad trip, I\'ll trust that pilot today and everyday. Looks like some competition for P6 $$$.

Also - for those visiting the Spa this summer, I recently went to the new Rivers Casino. Whoever thought that a casino would help that area should face a firing squad. What a dump and a hassle to get there. If you have a woody for live Black Jack/Roulette/Craps you might be able to get to Turning Stone or Mohegan just as fast. Oh and the man is watching closely as there is only one way in and out. Be careful!

Best of luck all, looking forward to the next 5 weeks!

[ajkreider]

Not sure the race is betable (the whole card is a big disappointment compared to FOY day).  But I don\'t think Gunny is fully cranked for this one.  Last two works have been slow, which is probably good for his chances in May (given the monster fig), but not for this race.  

Sano is the big question mark. The way he\'s handled Hy Riverside has been very strange.  He may have ruined a talented horse by running him three straight weeks in February.  Also have to question his judgment in going back to Jesus Rios for the Futurity last fall - after the switch to a top jock got Gunny a G2 win.

Always Dreaming probably looks better on TG than other figs.  Beyer gave him a 71 in his last, which is ridiculous.  But he isn\'t sneaking up on anyone as the second choice.  Three Rules may hang on, but wouldn\'t be surprised to see a bounce out of him as well after that huge effort.

Maybe the play is a jump up from one of the lightly raced horses to the inside.

[johnnym]

Agree the card as a whole is a disappointment. Rather see less races more quality.
Gunny can bounce and still win.

[TGJB]

AD looks slow on all figures. And he outworks all Pletcher\'s 3yos. We will see.

[Tavasco]

The puzzle of the race seems to have been exposed by Jerry. But what to make of the works? I suppose the trainer switch @ SAR is also indicative of

Could it be the trainers are trying to teach the horse to run faster early. ala Seabiscuit vs War Admiral (anybody hearing sirens or bells).  Or do the good works signal condition and readiness. I would have liked a good 5F in the w/o\'s.

PBD is the slow training track if memory serves me correctly?

I suppose an outfit like the Brooklyn Boys will influence the tote and actually that won\'t help me a a bit getting off this fence. Feeling a little more confident using him on top. C/B he negates the speed horses and makes it a two horse race?

Suddenly the Florida Derby is an interesting race and the defection of Battalion Runner (Pletcher) makes some sense.

[BitPlayer]

Don\'t you have to play Gunnevera to bounce?  A decade ago, TG published some stats about the next effort for 3yos who ran a neg 1 or better before July 1: sample size 31 (2000-2006); no new tops; 9.7% pair; 25.8% off; 64.5% X.

[johnnym]

Gunny in the Holy Bull was pinched on the rail.
Could it be said that if he was not pinched he runs a number close to IWC which is a 0.
So if he would of gotten a 0 in the Holy Bull was the move forward in the FOY really not that big?
Is this logical thinking?