Saratoga Morning Line

[P-Dub]

johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Curious how do you handle a maiden race with all
> first time starters?
> Which is common at the track in question.

Usually I pass them. If its in a P3/4 sequence, I\'ll look at the connections/workouts/stats.

[P-Dub]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > P-Dub Wrote:
> > >
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> >
> > > -----
> > > > I can\'t believe all of the consternation
> over
> > > the
> > > > ML.
> > > >
> > > > Bad MLs happen all over the country. Races
> > > > everywhere, routinely, have horses drift up
> > or
> > > > down from the ML. Every day.  Ever see a ML
> > > from
> > > > Evangeline Downs or CharlesTown? The actual
> > > odds
> > > > can be wildly different from the ML. Yes,
> the
> > > > pools are smaller. But it happens. It
> happens
> > > > everywhere.
> > > >
> > > > Ok, so maybe the guy doing Saratoga isn\'t
> as
> > > > accurate as other places. I get it. It
> still
> > > > shouldn\'t warrant all of the commotion.
> > > >
> > > > I agree 100% with MJellish. \"Point 2: The
> job
> > > of
> > > > the handicapper is to try to figure out our
> > own
> > > > line of who will most likely hit the board
> so
> > > we
> > > > can decide if it offers value enough to bet
> > our
> > > > money to hopefully cash a ticket. This is
> > > > irrespective of whatever the morning line
> > > person
> > > > says.\"
> > > >
> > > > Its your responsibility, after handicapping
> > the
> > > > race, to figure out who offers value.  You
> > can
> > > do
> > > > this by looking at the data. How many times
> > > have
> > > > we seen a ROTW mention a horse with hidden
> > form,
> > > a
> > > > poor finishing position relative to the
> trip
> > he
> > > > got? This horse could be ML 4/1 and drift
> to
> > > 7/1.
> > > > He could be ML 10/1 and drop to 7/2.
> Happens
> > > all
> > > > over the country. That\'s not the fault of
> the
> > > ML
> > > > guy. You expect the guy to have a crystal
> > ball,
> > > > and accurately predict the betting patterns
> > of
> > > the
> > > > public every stinking race? Especially with
> > the
> > > > abundance of 2YOs and FTS?
> > > >
> > > > I\'ve handicapped P3/4, and have seen ML
> that
> > I
> > > > don\'t agree with.  I construct my tickets
> > > > according to how I feel the race will be
> bet.
> > > > Enough with the complaining about it taking
> > > more
> > > > time. That time is negligible. Yes, the ML
> > > should
> > > > assist you. But if you see a sequence with
> a
> > > bad
> > > > ML, then its your job to compensate for
> that.
> > > Some
> > > > of the examples given, regarding how it
> > affects
> > > > you or hypothetical situations, are just
> > > > ridiculous.
> > > >
> > > > He\'s had a rough meet making the line, and
> it
> > > can
> > > > make it challenging to construct tickets.
> Put
> > > your
> > > > big boy pants on and work around it.
> > >
> > > You are such a talented handicapper that you
> > don\'t
> > > need extra time to figure out if the ML is
> > right
> > > or wrong. That is good for you. Some of us
> are
> > not
> > > as smart as you and it takes us extra time to
> > do
> > > that. It must not come as a surprise to you
> > that
> > > there are handicappers less talented than
> you.
> > >
> > > The ML is by definition an estimate or a
> > > projection. It will always never be right.
> The
> > > issue for those of us not as talented as you
> > > whether the misses are often and huge or are
> > > misses within a zone of reasonableness.
> > >
> > > Unfortunately, telling its customers to put
> on
> > > their big boy pants and take it in the rear
> is
> > SOP
> > > at the NYRA.
> >
> > Little touchy there?
> >
> > It has nothing to do with me being \"better\" or
> > \"smarter\".  And yes, your sarcasm was very
> clear.
> >
> > It has to do with me dealing with it.  I don\'t
> > waste my energy writing 50 paragraphs on a
> forum,
> > and complain over and over and over about the
> same
> > thing.
> >
> > Again. Try to comprehend this.  It happens
> EVERY
> > FREAKING DAY at EVERY FREAKING TRACK.  You
> think
> > this is just a Saratoga issue? Horses drift up
> or
> > down from their ML all the time.
> >
> > Perhaps you are right about me being smarter and
> a
> > better handicapper. I can figure out which
> horses
> > should get action, and which ones should be
> > longer.  You desperately need help in that
> > department. Its a piss poor excuse, blaming the
> ML
> > for you having difficulties making wagers.
>
> If you think the ML is so irrelevant, then
> racetracks across America can save money by firing
> all their linemakers.  Nothing requires the Track
> to have a linemaker.  They do it because it is
> perceived as being a courtesy to customers and to
> facilitate betting.  If it is truly as irrelevant
> as you believe it is, the industry is making a big
> mistake on spending money on something that nobody
> cares about when that money could be better spent
> on something else for the customers.

So Cal,

They do the best they can. Its not an easy job, trying to predict what the public will do.

I didn\'t say its irrelevant. I said I deal with it.

Look, having an accurate ML helps. I get it.  I\'m just saying, it isn\'t a reason for this much grief.

I understand your frustrations, I\'m just surprised it has caused this much grief. All insults aside, I know you\'re a good player and just believe you can handle it.  That\'s all.

[SoCalMan2]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > P-Dub Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> > >
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> >
> > > -----
> > > > P-Dub Wrote:
> > > >
> > >
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> >
> > >
> > > > -----
> > > > > I can\'t believe all of the consternation
> > over
> > > > the
> > > > > ML.
> > > > >
> > > > > Bad MLs happen all over the country.
> Races
> > > > > everywhere, routinely, have horses drift
> up
> > > or
> > > > > down from the ML. Every day.  Ever see a
> ML
> > > > from
> > > > > Evangeline Downs or CharlesTown? The
> actual
> > > > odds
> > > > > can be wildly different from the ML. Yes,
> > the
> > > > > pools are smaller. But it happens. It
> > happens
> > > > > everywhere.
> > > > >
> > > > > Ok, so maybe the guy doing Saratoga isn\'t
> > as
> > > > > accurate as other places. I get it. It
> > still
> > > > > shouldn\'t warrant all of the commotion.
> > > > >
> > > > > I agree 100% with MJellish. \"Point 2: The
> > job
> > > > of
> > > > > the handicapper is to try to figure out
> our
> > > own
> > > > > line of who will most likely hit the
> board
> > so
> > > > we
> > > > > can decide if it offers value enough to
> bet
> > > our
> > > > > money to hopefully cash a ticket. This is
> > > > > irrespective of whatever the morning line
> > > > person
> > > > > says.\"
> > > > >
> > > > > Its your responsibility, after
> handicapping
> > > the
> > > > > race, to figure out who offers value.
> You
> > > can
> > > > do
> > > > > this by looking at the data. How many
> times
> > > > have
> > > > > we seen a ROTW mention a horse with
> hidden
> > > form,
> > > > a
> > > > > poor finishing position relative to the
> > trip
> > > he
> > > > > got? This horse could be ML 4/1 and drift
> > to
> > > > 7/1.
> > > > > He could be ML 10/1 and drop to 7/2.
> > Happens
> > > > all
> > > > > over the country. That\'s not the fault of
> > the
> > > > ML
> > > > > guy. You expect the guy to have a crystal
> > > ball,
> > > > > and accurately predict the betting
> patterns
> > > of
> > > > the
> > > > > public every stinking race? Especially
> with
> > > the
> > > > > abundance of 2YOs and FTS?
> > > > >
> > > > > I\'ve handicapped P3/4, and have seen ML
> > that
> > > I
> > > > > don\'t agree with.  I construct my tickets
> > > > > according to how I feel the race will be
> > bet.
> > > > > Enough with the complaining about it
> taking
> > > > more
> > > > > time. That time is negligible. Yes, the
> ML
> > > > should
> > > > > assist you. But if you see a sequence
> with
> > a
> > > > bad
> > > > > ML, then its your job to compensate for
> > that.
> > > > Some
> > > > > of the examples given, regarding how it
> > > affects
> > > > > you or hypothetical situations, are just
> > > > > ridiculous.
> > > > >
> > > > > He\'s had a rough meet making the line,
> and
> > it
> > > > can
> > > > > make it challenging to construct tickets.
> > Put
> > > > your
> > > > > big boy pants on and work around it.
> > > >
> > > > You are such a talented handicapper that
> you
> > > don\'t
> > > > need extra time to figure out if the ML is
> > > right
> > > > or wrong. That is good for you. Some of us
> > are
> > > not
> > > > as smart as you and it takes us extra time
> to
> > > do
> > > > that. It must not come as a surprise to you
> > > that
> > > > there are handicappers less talented than
> > you.
> > > >
> > > > The ML is by definition an estimate or a
> > > > projection. It will always never be right.
> > The
> > > > issue for those of us not as talented as
> you
> > > > whether the misses are often and huge or
> are
> > > > misses within a zone of reasonableness.
> > > >
> > > > Unfortunately, telling its customers to put
> > on
> > > > their big boy pants and take it in the rear
> > is
> > > SOP
> > > > at the NYRA.
> > >
> > > Little touchy there?
> > >
> > > It has nothing to do with me being \"better\"
> or
> > > \"smarter\".  And yes, your sarcasm was very
> > clear.
> > >
> > > It has to do with me dealing with it.  I
> don\'t
> > > waste my energy writing 50 paragraphs on a
> > forum,
> > > and complain over and over and over about the
> > same
> > > thing.
> > >
> > > Again. Try to comprehend this.  It happens
> > EVERY
> > > FREAKING DAY at EVERY FREAKING TRACK.  You
> > think
> > > this is just a Saratoga issue? Horses drift
> up
> > or
> > > down from their ML all the time.
> > >
> > > Perhaps you are right about me being smarter
> and
> > a
> > > better handicapper. I can figure out which
> > horses
> > > should get action, and which ones should be
> > > longer.  You desperately need help in that
> > > department. Its a piss poor excuse, blaming
> the
> > ML
> > > for you having difficulties making wagers.
> >
> > If you think the ML is so irrelevant, then
> > racetracks across America can save money by
> firing
> > all their linemakers.  Nothing requires the
> Track
> > to have a linemaker.  They do it because it is
> > perceived as being a courtesy to customers and
> to
> > facilitate betting.  If it is truly as
> irrelevant
> > as you believe it is, the industry is making a
> big
> > mistake on spending money on something that
> nobody
> > cares about when that money could be better
> spent
> > on something else for the customers.
>
> So Cal,
>
> They do the best they can. Its not an easy job,
> trying to predict what the public will do.
>
> I didn\'t say its irrelevant. I said I deal with
> it.
>
> Look, having an accurate ML helps. I get it.  I\'m
> just saying, it isn\'t a reason for this much
> grief.
>
> I understand your frustrations, I\'m just surprised
> it has caused this much grief. All insults aside,
> I know you\'re a good player and just believe you
> can handle it.  That\'s all.

No offense is taken here.  Because I do not have much time these days, I handle it the best way -- I just play less races.  It is fine.  I just hate to see the game I love giving itself another unnecessary self-inflicted wound that contributes to all the other stuff dragging down the game.

[P-Dub]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > jimbo66 Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > P-Dub,
> > >
> > > Whether it should or shouldn\'t affect a
> > > handicapper and whether a bad morning line
> can
> > be
> > > exploited easily or not at all, it really
> > doesn\'t
> > > matter.
> > >
> > > How about like in almost all other
> occupations
> > and
> > > industries, the person being paid to perform
> > the
> > > job be close to competent.
> > >
> > > Travis Stone isn\'t.  He is showing it EVERY
> > DAY.
> > >
> > > For me, I am tired of second class treatment
> in
> > > many aspects of the game by the powers to be,
> > to
> > > the players (aka the customers)
> > >
> > > Stone has to go.  Send him to a minor league
> > > circuit for training.
> > >
> > > The best meet in our country doesn\'t deserve
> to
> > > have a hack doing the morning line, learning
> on
> > > the job.
> > >
> > > Jim
> >
> > Fine Jimbo.  I don\'t disagree with that at all.
>
> > His performance, racing not giving its
> customers
> > what they deserve, all of that. You are spot
> on.
> >
> > Its the incessant whining and crying by people
> > like So Cal. Wah Wah sniffle sniffle.  I have
> to
> > spend a bit more time handicapping a race.
> >
> > So tell me So Cal, where is all of this
> sniveling
> > when this happens at other tracks? Because it
> > does, more often than you want to admit.  
> >
> > Its a pathetic excuse to blame the ML for all
> of
> > this. As I have said already, this happens at
> > EVERY FREAKING TRACK. EVERY DAY.
> >
> > You shouldn\'t even need a ML to figure out what
> > horses are probably going to get action. Not
> every
> > horse, but enough to get a feel for the race.
>
> I only play NYRA and SoCal. I believe you it
> happens at other tracks. What do you want me to do
> about that?  I just believe that the product at
> the top of the market should reflect it is at the
> top of the market.  They do not have to do that if
> they do not want to.  It is a matter of customer
> service.  I think they should be providing normal
> courtesies that facilitate betting.  They do not.
> Fair enough.  You can think I am a pathetic cry
> baby if you like, but if you want to chase all the
> pathetic crybabies out of your game, your game
> will decline.
>
> In almost any other industry in the world, if a
> customer complains, the motto is the customer is
> always right.  In horseracing, the customer who
> complains is a pussy crybaby and should buck up or
> leave.  The just doesnt seem like a good approach
> to keep something going.

My last comments.

- You\'re not a pussy. I didn\'t say that.
- I do believe you\'re going a little overboard on your consternation.
- I 100% agree with what you are saying about the ML at Saratoga, and its effects on how you play
- Since it doesn\'t appear to be getting any better, I just deal with it.
- I\'ll stop with the personal comments about being whiny, etc.. My apologies. It doesn\'t help the discussion. You have every right to voice your displeasure. I just think the point has been made, and we need to move on.

I\'m going to the A\'s game, Arrieta Vs Gray. Great seats. I hope to see a competitive ballgame. At least I was given the tickets and the seats are great.

Everyone have a great Whitney Day and hope you all cash some tickets.  Sounds like we as a group are overdue for a good day.

[SoCalMan2]

msola1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I appreciate the reply, but it doesn\'t bring me
> much closer.
>
> Of course I know that a starting point might be to
> divide the percentages equally. Obviously no-one
> believes they all have an equal chance. How about
> a next step?
>
> How do you define your particular tiers? And where
> do you go from there?
>
> I suppose in some bottom tier you might think none
> had a better than 5% chance. But taken with the
> rest of the percentages, everything must add up to
> 100. It\'s all the rest that present me with the
> conundrum.

You might find it hard to believe, but there are plenty of times where I find lots of the horses having equal chances.  Remember, the races, by condition book, are designed to bring together as evenly matched horses as possible.....so there should be a cluster of horses around par in any given race.  That should be the norm, but there should still usually be a set of outliers in either direction too.

Let\'s take my example a little further and exaggerate for illustration.  Imagine a 12 horse race, but there are three rank outsiders with very little chance and three horses who stand above the field with the last six clustered around par.  I assume the person has enough handicapping judgment to be able to suss this out.

In this example, I would first give every horse 1% chance because anything can happen.  The three outsiders will be left stuck at 1% (note, these are horses whose projected figures are so far off par that race dynamics or a collapse of the race are not enough to help them. Also, they don\'t even have any back figure to run back to or a reason to think they will do something new (barn change, equipment change, surface, config, distance change)).

Okay, so now you have assigned 12% of the 100% you need to assign.  You have 88% left to assign to the three good horses and the 6 par horses.  The winner is fairly likely to come from the top three, but if all three are trip compromised, or dont fire, or one of the par horses jumps up big, then a par horse will get it.  Let\'s say it is a 15% chance that a par horse will get it.  That means you assign the top three an extra 24% chance to win, so the top three horses are at 25% each.  You then split the 15% 6 ways for the par horses.  So, in the end, you have three horses at 25% each chance of winning, 6 horses with 3.5% chance of winning, and then three horses with 1.0% chance of winning.

So that would be a first cut.  Then I look again at my handicapping and I decide if i have over or under valued something.  If I do find I have, then I adjust by moving some percentage from one horse to another until I get a solution I am happy with compared to my racing judgement.  I do not sweat small differences, just looking to get order of magnitude and right relations....nothing is hard and fast or black and white....you just want to get some quantification that can match up with your judgments. In this example, maybe I decide I am undervaluing the chance that one of the par horses jumps up.  So, I take some off of the top horses and redistribute to the par horses....Lets say I make the top three at 20% each and the par horses at 6% each with the rank outsiders at 1% each.

One way to do it is to write out the horses in the order you think there chances are with the percentages you assign...see how close or far away each horse is from another and see if you think that is right or wrong.  A lot of this requires making a diagram and comparing the diagram to your racing judgment.  Also, I like to group horses because in reality a lot of horses are pretty close (as i said, the races are designed to draw horses of comparable ability -- that is what makes them attractive for betting purposes).

There is obviously a lot more complexity to the game than this, but this is the basic architecture of how I like to go about it. Nobody has to do it this way.  I do it, but there is no right or wrong way to go about doing this -- to each his or her own.

Apologies if I have misunderstood your question.

[msola1]

SoCalMan2,

You understood my question perfectly, and your response is really helpful. It gives me a very good procedure for developing my own odds line.

I appreciate the time you took to do this. From the days when you were in Moscow (right?) I remember you as someone who was thoughtful and responsive (and pretty smart too).

Best to you,

Mike

[SoCalMan2]

msola1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SoCalMan2,
>
> You understood my question perfectly, and your
> response is really helpful. It gives me a very
> good procedure for developing my own odds line.
>
> I appreciate the time you took to do this. From
> the days when you were in Moscow (right?) I
> remember you as someone who was thoughtful and
> responsive (and pretty smart too).
>
> Best to you,
>
> Mike

Thank you for the compliment -- and you do remember correctly -- I lived in Moscow from 1998 to 2010.  Please note that my procedure is not for making an odds line.  I think Mathcapper/Rocky gave you a link for that -- my procedure just gives you a method for changing your handicapping opinions into probabilities.  An odds line will add up differently because of the takeout -- it will not add up to 100%.

Best to you....good luck!!

[Fairmount1]

Hope it is permissible to retract my previous post believing that Travis Stone would improve his m/l skills.  I even exchanged messages with him about his m/l making and he explained how solid he was doing with the job.  Let me quote actually so as not to mis-state his high opinion:  Honestly, I\'ve been more than pleased with my lines so far.

Well Mr. Stone, I\'m predicting you get an \"F\" in Race 7 tomorrow at the Spa.  As readers here probably know, I follow Ingrid Mason horses very closely.  She has a firster in with works of:  1:12 3/5, 59 3/5, 33 flat, 33 4/5, and 23 showing on the page.  Sire is Tiz Wonderful who is 20% with firsters.  Regardless of whether you believe the horse wins or not, I\'ll hereby declare it as we do at Fairmount Park---If this horse is 20-1 or higher, I\'ll walk home the 20 plus miles from Fairmount tomorrow after racing.  This is an obvious miss.  Further, if the 2 goes off half the price of 747 as Stone predicts, I\'ll buy richiebee\'s airfare, hotel, and and tickets to Del Mar for next year\'s Pacific Classic that pits Exaggerator against Nyquist and Songbird.  

Mike Beer picks 747 on top, Kenny Peck picks him 3rd, and Chuck Kuehhas has him also on top.  And I\'ve received 3 texts from friends that they are playing this one. I predict he opens as 2nd choice and drifts as high as 7-1 at most but I\'m calling 5-1 at the bell.  Best of luck. For the record, I will not be playing this horse to win and not in horizontals.

[SoCalMan2]

Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hope it is permissible to retract my previous post
> believing that Travis Stone would improve his m/l
> skills.  I even exchanged messages with him about
> his m/l making and he explained how solid he was
> doing with the job.  Let me quote actually so as
> not to mis-state his high opinion:  Honestly, I\'ve
> been more than pleased with my lines so far.
>
First, why would this guy have any credibility?  His lines speak volumes already.  We know enough already to know that anything he says on the topic cannot be trusted. The big problem is that his employer is an even bigger idiot than he is and doesn\'t understand this.

However, I would not focus on races filled with first time starters.  Those races should be hard for any linemaker and you would expect a field of first time starters to vary quite a bit from the line.  You may well be right that he botched the line in the race you are talking about, but that race should be more difficult than a simple race with obvious horses with well established form.

The real problem is that he is missing the chip shots and he is not just missing them, he is not even remotely in the ballpark.....he is not even in the furthest auxiliary parking lot from the ballpark.

The only good news is that he revealed how bad he was very fast, so that astute players rapidly understood not to trust him and to adjust.  Unfortunately, to get newcomers and novices into our sport, we are supposed to make it less bewildering not more bewildering.  This is a problem for people who want this support to be sustainable -- it does not appear that the NYRA even considers that question.

[mlnolan00]

Not that I\'m talking anyone off 20-1s but morning Line aside, I\'m curious why people would be so eager to bet this one, especially at less than 20-1.

Per the workouts, this guy looks like a big, lanky, goofy tween who wants more than 6F, especially first time out.

There is a much better option at 20-1 earlier in the card for those who did their homework and the price should hold as well.

Compare and watch the works of 747 (http://www.obssales.com/juncatalog/2016/747.mp4), Favorable Outcome (http://www.obssales.com/marcatalog/2016/246.mp4 super nice, fluid lead change), and even the Properity Mo (http://www.obssales.com/juncatalog/2016/447.mp4) out of that same OBS June (the outlet mall of 2yos sales, no disrespect) and tell me why you feel most confident betting the 9 in R7 because I\'m really curious to know if there is something I\'m not seeing.  Chad\'s looks and reads as if it\'s the most likely winner here, and he even outworked that Mirai recently.

I likewise see that Ingrid\'s worked with a FTS winner (but DQed) at Arlington but that\'s a long way from SAR imho.  Furthermore, even if this 9 did look like it had some precocity about it, the pedigree is sporadic and relatively unproductive, especially for 2yos on dirt.  I can read a sire list like anyone else and while Tiz Wonderful is fine with FTS, they typically aren\'t as gawky as this one and he\'s not exactly tearing things up recently, hence why he was exported last Spring.

Godspeed if you decide to go all-in on Ingrid\'s (PS she hasn\'t won with a FTS on dirt in 2yrs) but I think if Chad doesn\'t win then Rudy, Ron or Steve (the 3/4 to Pyro & Longview Dr., and full to early SW War Echo) are on deck, then followed by Ingrid, DWL, and Ward.

if I\'ve totally misread this race, please school me because I was planning on singling Favorable Outcome.  All of these reasons likewise make me think the 20-1 ML is legitimate.  Anything less than maybe 12-1 feels like a dangerous underlay.

[toppled]

I think Seven Forty seven will open up the favorite & anyone betting him will be lucky to get 5/2.  The owner has been touting this horse to the world.  I have a friend whose cousin was at Arlington last Saturday & sat near the owner, who told him about Seven Forty Seven. I got the e-mail about Seven Forty Seven from my friend last Sunday, well before entries to this race were drawn. If the owner is a big bettor, this horse is going off the favorite.

I believe that Teletap will win this race & go on to graded stakes. The only thing that gives me pause to emptying my wallet and going all in on Teletap is the sobering thought that even greats like Secretariat and American Pharoah lost their 1st race & if Seven Forty Seven gets the jump on him, he could be get too far in front of Teletap for Teletap to catch him. No matter what happens in this race, Teletap is the best long range horse in here-he may be the best bred 2YO at Saratoga this year.  

What makes this interesting is I really like the #5 Rule Yourself in the 6th race.  So, I can throw DDs & Picks in using both 7 & 9 in the 7th with him.

[jimbo66]

Fairmount,

You were spot on.  

Too bad the embarrassment that is Travis Stone, can\'t occasionally be \"spot on\".

Sort of felt bad for him earlier in the meet, but his comments to you that he thinks he is doing well removes all sympathy.  It is one thing to be ill prepared to perform a job, do it poorly and be humble about it.  It is another to be brazen about it.  Shows you that he knows there is no accountability at NYRA.

[jimbo66]

Good call Minolan.

Fairmount was right about how the race was bet, but you nailed the right horse.

[Boscar Obarra]

Now that the \'fastest horse in the world\' firster has gone down to defeat at 3/2 off a 20-1 ML, maybe he should claim there is great wisdom embedded in his numbers.

 Sadly  , those have been quite rare vs the too high M-L winners.

[Fairmount1]

What scares me BO is that based on the tweets I\'ve read the last few weeks and his words to me, he actually might believe he correctly created the morning line on the horse rather than realizing he is actually trying to predict what the odds on each horse will actually be at post time. #incompetence

I\'d venture an easy guess that at least 15 people on this board could do a better job than Stone at making the m/l.  I don\'t worry too much about the m/l being way wrong but he is way off very often.  He has some formula that he told me shows me he is doing better than the national average for morning lines......guessing he doesn\'t realize he is at the premiere meet of the year where just above average doesn\'t cut it.  Average fans deserve better.  As for most of us here, we know most often what the odds will likely be on the races we study closely.

More importantly, as I\'ve told FrankD off board, Chicago horses are the last horses to bet shipping just about anywhere for almost a year now.  Almost all of them are tossouts for the win.