AP vs Big Brown

covelj70 · May 05, 2015, 04:57:57 PM

Sheets tell us there is an analogy to be made between BB and AP. Not a perfect analog but relevant.

Both came into Derby off fast new top (obviously BB faster).

Both came into derby looking like they could bounce but instead freaked.

I know many on the board salivating to send it in against AP in the Preakness but I personally believe as long as he regains his weight, he will win the Preakness even going backwards and then the chance to beat him is in the Belmomt.

T Severini · May 05, 2015, 05:26:16 PM

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sheets tell us there is an analogy to be made
> between BB and AP. Not a perfect analog but
> relevant.
>
> Both came into Derby off fast new top (obviously
> BB faster).
>
> Both came into derby looking like they could
> bounce but instead freaked.
>
> I know many on the board salivating to send it in
> against AP in the Preakness but I personally
> believe as long as he regains his weight, he will
> win the Preakness even going backwards and then
> the chance to beat him is in the Belmomt.

I can remember the Oakland Raiders being on a tremendous Monday Night Football winning streak and everyone saying they had won/covered something like 18 straight and that\'s when I stepped up and said, \"Who Cares\".

What has been done before only matters in relevant context.

Didn\'t Big Brown win off like a locomotive in his Derby? And you\'re saying aching hoof Adrian Peterson coming off a Life and Death Derby effort where so much in the race collapsed is really too good to bother taking on in the Preakness? That waiting for the Belmont is the only way to beat him?

Here\'s my perspective. I do not for a single solitary moment believe this horse is anywhere near as good as gushing Bob Baffert and his maniacal revolving exorcist induced little brat seem to think he is. More and more its looking like Peterson is a decent horse in a mediocre crop.

But let\'s put this another way, when Peterson gets beat he\'s likely going down as odds on and with luck out of the money. Do you really want to miss that boat, especially if it sails in the Preakness? Yet in still other words, there is only going to be one chance to let the good times roll against this one. After he\'s beat, the party is over.

smalltimer · May 05, 2015, 05:27:22 PM

Jim,
Agreed, some similarities. Brown had 24 days after the FL Derby and then 35 days into the Derby. He won easily in Preakness in -1.
AP had 28 days to the ARK Derby and then only 21 days into the Derby.
I see Brown\'s trip in the Derby was 5w4w, but in the smaller field at Pimlico he had a 1w3w trip.
AP came out of the Derby with a 4w4w trip.
Probably have to assume he\'ll have a less wide trip in Baltimore.
Is Brown\'s Preakness trip worth TG points versus his Derby trip? Did he run that lower number at Baltimore partially cause he won easily, or that he won easily with a much better trip?
Same trip improvement likely for AP.

TGJB · May 05, 2015, 05:43:12 PM

\"Maniacal revolving exorcist induced little brat\". Yikes.

FrankD. · May 05, 2015, 05:44:34 PM

He must have had Bodemeister in the Derby and carries a grudge!

Strike · May 05, 2015, 05:49:37 PM

He may win going backwards. His competition will surely be weaker than in the Derby. He will be odds on to win. But, this will be his third race in five weeks. His health is also very questionable (a couple of known problems) -- especially running back in two weeks off a very hard race -- ran the whole way and gutted it out.

Baffert is a master poker player so it won\'t be possible to dissect his pre-race comments. A key, in my opinion, to a bet against or pass is workout reports. How does he gallop? Baffert try to hide by exercising him in the dark (Baffert does not like to get up early)? Harrington gave him an \"A\" in his final workout before the Derby and anointed him the best worker since Sunday Silence. What now?

A lot to ask of him -- hopefully there are a few new shooters with good patterns.

Fairmount1 · May 05, 2015, 06:24:31 PM

Most recent Derby winners I\'ve thought would easily win in Baltimore and the play is against them at Belmont.

This time I believe the Preakness is the time to play against the Derby winner.

When he walked back by the first turn headed for the barn, I thought the horse looked like he had been through a war compared to many that had walked by just minutes earlier.

Two weeks isn\'t much time. The problem with \"playing against\" is you need to have an opinion on a horse that will beat him and I am not there yet. I\'m not sure FL can duplicate his effort either.

Heard Pletcher on Byk basically say he was weighing options for CD and Materiality but never heard the word Preakness. Divining Rod will be there. You know Mr. Z will be in there. Dortmund I presume will be in there. Who else?

Strike · May 05, 2015, 06:36:19 PM

Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Most recent Derby winners I\'ve thought would
> easily win in Baltimore and the play is against
> them at Belmont.
>
> This time I believe the Preakness is the time to
> play against the Derby winner.
>
> When he walked back by the first turn headed for
> the barn, I thought the horse looked like he had
> been through a war compared to many that had
> walked by just minutes earlier.
>
> Two weeks isn\'t much time. The problem with
> \"playing against\" is you need to have an opinion
> on a horse that will beat him and I am not there
> yet. I\'m not sure FL can duplicate his effort
> either.
>
> Heard Pletcher on Byk basically say he was
> weighing options for CD and Materiality but never
> heard the word Preakness. Divining Rod will be
> there. You know Mr. Z will be in there. Dortmund
> I presume will be in there. Who else?

Maybe -- Bodhisattva, Danzig Moon, Stanford, Competitive Edge.

Fairmount1 · May 05, 2015, 06:37:14 PM

Pletcher mentioned Peter Pan likely for Stanford next.

Topcat · May 06, 2015, 04:02:02 AM

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Maniacal revolving exorcist induced little brat\".
> Yikes.

Rough . . . but points, for sheer creativity.

toppled · May 06, 2015, 05:29:05 AM

Based on his 2yo foundation & the TGI for Pioneerof the Nile from 2 to 3, I always thought AP was going to run a big negative # in the Derby, so I don\'t consider his effort a knockout number.

So, what if a -3 or something close to that is normal for this horse when he is sound? You look at some horses and they run off strings of negative numbers when a lot of people are anticipating a bounce (even though he\'s a sprinter & it may no be a good comparison, look at Palace\'s sheet). Not many people around here are thinking Upstart is done with all his negative numbers and are looking at a rebound somewhere in the future. Even though he X\'d in the Derby, Upstart is a good example of a horse who can keep throwing negative numbers at us as a 3YO.

I think if the AP knockers took a step back & realized how good he is, they\'d back off trying to beat him in the Preakness. Baffert\'s Derby winners have yet to lose a Preakness. I agree the time to beat him is in the Belmont, although emotionally it will be tough betting against him because this is a special horse to me, one of the few horses I\'ve been right about every step of the way & it would be next to impossible for me to root against him in the Belmont if he gets that far.

miff · May 06, 2015, 06:20:05 AM

Baffert on AP \"I\'ve got to get the weight back on him\"....jugs, supplements, hot mashes.... Bring in Bobby Flay!

smalltimer · May 06, 2015, 06:25:35 AM

I\'ll text him my diet. That\'ll put some weight on him.

covelj70 · May 06, 2015, 06:33:11 AM

T Sev,

I have to say, I love your style

Would be cool if you didn\'t ALWAYS automatically disagree with everything I post but hey, that\'s what makes a market!

I think I know who you were referring to in that little diatribe and if it\'s who I think it is, then that\'s honestly one of the most amusing things in the history of this board

Relative to the horse,

I use the numbers to tell me how brilliant a horse is and the fact that this horse just ran the second faster Derby in history tells me you are selling him short in terms of how good he is.

Four horses in this Derby ran figures/races that would have won last year\'s Derby and sure Big Brown won off like a locomotive in his Derby but he didn\'t have 2 other negative figure horses chasing him in that race like AP did in this race.

He could certainly lose the Preakness but I think it\'s much more likely that he will lose the Belmont.

He could bounce three points and likely still win the Preakness, just like BB did.

That would be a pretty awful pattern for the Belmont and that\'s where I would take my stand

However, what if this horse pairs his 3 neg in the Preakness and then goes into the Belmont with paired tops and never having gone backward.

I will still play against him in the Belmont but not to anywhere near the same extent as I would if he wins the Preakness while going backwards

miff · May 06, 2015, 06:37:21 AM

Small,

People are going to get nuts with the weight thing. Truth be told, lasix causes most of weight loss and a steady intake of fluids over days adds quite a bit back on.AP was finally on his belly in the derby and that may or may not be his problem. AP not expected to breeze, why would he?, walk, jog, gallop up to the race.

None in Preakness can outrun AP so he has to back up, 3 races in 5 weeks. Also interesting is Firing Line who appears to like lots of time between races but comes back in just 2 weeks.Small field predicted so far.

Mike