AP vs Big Brown

[smalltimer]

Mike,
I know the draw down with Lasix is maybe 75-100# depending on the horse.  
Totally agree on Firing Line with the short rest off the big effort.
Until some of these horses hit mid stretch in Baltimore we may not know how much that Derby took out of them.

[joemama]

I know this might be blasphemous but the Preakness is probably a good race to pass on.  Reason being the payoff are usually not too good especially for the low denomination bettor.  Favorite usually wins, exotics don\'t pay much, etc.

[covelj70]

if you believe in AP, then the pk 4 which is guaranteed at a $1m is the way to go singling AP (look at what BB pk 4 paid)

If you don\'t believe in AP, then great chance to play the race itself

[joemama]

Good advice.  My predisposition is to not bet the Preakness due to the low payouts and prospect of having the potential of the winner going for the triple crown.  A good dose or rain might change all that.

[johnnym]

I agree unless something really stands out..
Usually my stratagy for the Preakness invest lightly to build a bankroll to go heavy in the Belmont..As we all know how the Belmont has been recently..
Good Luck

[johnnym]

AP got really worked up in the paddock prior to the Derby per Baffert..
Race took its toll on him mentally and physically it sounds like..

[sekrah]

joemama Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I know this might be blasphemous but the Preakness
> is probably a good race to pass on.  Reason being
> the payoff are usually not too good especially for
> the low denomination bettor.  Favorite usually
> wins, exotics don\'t pay much, etc.


2013 - Oxbow $32.80, $2 Tri $2061
2011 - Shackelford $27.20, $2 Tri $1401
2010 - Lookin At Lucky $6.20, $2 Tri $2770

Very impressive Tri\'s for 5 years of exotics don\'t pay much.

If the Derby winner doesn\'t win, you can make some big tickets in the Preakness. If the Derby winner misses the board (Super Saver), You can see a $1 Superfecta pay $17k with the 2nd choice winning.

[FrankD.]

Top,

Some really great points and I don\'t believe that anyone here who has been around longer than 10 minutes doubts AP\'s ability. Everyone from basically day one has raved about his action and the ease at which he travels over the ground. Many wanted to see him tested to see what he had; he was and won the Derby.

Purely from a gambling perspective I can\'t take him at 3/5 for his 3rd race in 5 weeks with the foot issue\'s, the path of least resistance taken to get there and the effort that was required for him to get the blanket of roses. I have no viable options at this moment but I\'ll come up with something. He will be a toss out of the exacta for sure here.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[miff]

Frank,

Easy,let the eyeballs see how AP looks next week. Can\'t go back to Firing Line, have to feel his heart broken more than mine.


Early Vegas,

AP 6-5,

Firing Line 5,

Dortmund 5,

Competitive Edge 12,

Danzig Moon 20,

Diving Rod 30,

Mr Z 50,

Bodhisattva 100

Mike

[TGJB]

AP will be less than 6/5 and FL will probably be less than 5-1.

[FrankD.]

Frankie won\'t be betting a deli to win a pickle either!

[miff]

AP 3-5...FL/Dort 7-2-9/2...not a remote chance Competitve edge is 12-1 think more like 7/8-1


Baffert being cute about running AP and Dort but I can guarantee you he does not want to start Dortmund.

[magicnight]

\"Baffert being cute about running AP and Dort but I can guarantee you he does not want to start Dortmund.\"

Baffy very quickly opted to not run Indian Charlie (1998 Derby favorite) in the Preakness against his buddy Pegram\'s Real Quiet

[miff]

Magic,

Delicate situation. Dortmund\'s owner is presently Bafferts biggest owner as far as $$ invested in stable.


Managing the egos of multi millionaire owners tougher than training horses according to a big stable trainer.


Mike

[magicnight]

Thanks, Mike. Figured that was the case but did not know the actual standings.

Back in \'98 it was probably easier for him to strongarm the Earnharts (assuming that was even necessary).