AP vs Big Brown

[miff]

There is a reasonable argument out there about Dortmund\'s derby. Firstly,more than one vet opined that even mild colic COULD have adversely affected Dorts performance as colic can deteriorate a horse even though it is being treated early.

Just another thing which may or may not have some meaning.

[toppled]

I\'m leaning towards laying pretty low in the Preakness.  The last couple of years all I did was bet a few tris in the Preakness & didn\'t have them.  I have kind of bet the Preakness because I bought a seat to the Belmont, but I probably won\'t go without a Triple Crown on the line.

[toppled]

It was the walk over-he didn\'t dig the crowd.  He then calmed down.  I don\'t see how that can be considered taking it\'s toll mentally -he won the race.  
If anyone has any current physical reports, I\'d love to hear them.

[jp702006]

Who is the one horse coming out of the Derby who didn\'t throw a big number which he might react to? That would be dortmund. He has yet to get back to his fig from February. he could move forward.

[HP]

Would love to see at least one pure speed type enter the Preakness so AP and/or Dortmund has to at least THINK about pushing early.

[smalltimer]

Mr. C,
Now that the Derby is over, I was able to put the similarities between Brown and AP to see the likelihood of AP winning in Baltimore.

Brown had the 2 year old turf out under Patrick Reynolds then was turned over to Tricky.  A 182 day layoff began prior to his 3 year old campaign.
AP came off his 2 year old campaign with a 197 day layoff prior to his 3 year old campaign.

Both horses had 2 outs prior to winning the Derby with Brown roughly 2 pts better than AP in each of their first 2 outs.
Brown move 2 pts forward in the Derby while unchallenged, and AP moved 2 pts forward with a major challenge.

If AP came out of the Derby putting the weight back on, moves well on the track, no reason he doesn\'t have a chance to win at Baltimore.  Disclaimer: I will be trying to beat him on a small scale.

I suggested in my May 2, 2015 post \"Odds on Upstart\" about my quandary with AP and Upstart and suggested I would learn something after they ran the race.

What I learned is a 3 year old Derby entrant that runs a negative number in either of his first two starts of the campaign, and has 3 or more prep races prior to the Derby likely run up the track.  To the tune of 0 for 11.
9 of the 11 earned their first negative number in a race 1 1/16 or shorter.

Looking forward to getting my behind kicked next May if this doesn\'t play out. LOL

[sekrah]

Dortmund seems like he might be the lead contender in the Preakness.

[TGJB]

Trust me, you didn\'t learn anything from Upstart in the Derby.

[sekrah]

smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> What I learned is a 3 year old Derby entrant that
> runs a negative number in either of his first two
> starts of the campaign, and has 3 or more prep
> races prior to the Derby likely run up the track.
> To the tune of 0 for 11.



These are assumptions being made on small samples and arbitrary rules.  Are you saying if Smarty Jones had run that 0.5 on December 31st instead of January 3rd, he would have ran like crap in the Derby?  Since he would have fallen under these rules.

Wouldn\'t such rules also tell us that Big Brown, Mine That Bird, and Animal Kingdom should have run-up the track in the Preakness?  Those rules may have also have snagged Curlin in the Preakness.

You\'re making hay out of a small sample size. A small sample size that includes a Brother Derek who paired his negative 3yo debut in the Derby after going 5w7w.

[smalltimer]

Smarty was \'04, I went back to \'05.
Animal Kingdom, Mine That Bird and Curlin were not in the criteria that I using.
Brother Derek didn\'t win the race.
Since I live in Nebraska, do you really care if I pay $ 10.00 or $ 100.00 for a ton of hay?  It would be my money.
I thought we were gonna play nice sek?

[smalltimer]

What I learned was horses with a negative number in one of their first 2 starts and 4 preps are likely to run up the track.  I didn\'t know that going in, hence I played him.
You\'re privy to the reason(s) he didn\'t run to expectations, so I can appreciate that.
I\'ve been wrong before.

[sekrah]

Brother Derek not winning the race is irrelevant. He paired up that negative number that you claimed is the reason for their demise.

Smarty missed qualifying under the criteria by less than a couple days on his first prep race.

There\'s two cases where your system failed.

I was able to find a few other horses in your system.

American Lion - Came into the derby off a Neg with a horrible long-term pattern that screamed bounce. I don\'t think too many TG players had him on their tickets.

Soldat - Ran neg in 3yo debut, and went backwards into the Derby.  Terrible pattern.

What were some of the other horses?  How many of them were Pletcher horses?

[Tavasco]

HP wrote:

Would love to see at least one pure speed type enter the Preakness so AP and/or Dortmund has to at least THINK about pushing early.




In my view, they do push early, nobody can keep up.

Maybe it is my rose colored glasses. But in three of the recent four years the SoCal horses controlled the pace. Others could not or did not keep up.

In 2012 lots of pre race conjecture about how Bodemeister would wilt when confronted with competition on the front end. Loose on the lead or others unable not go with?

In 2014 CC was considered no faster than many other contenders coming in to the race. Where were they during the race. CC\'s race actually looked a bit similar to AP\'s tracking the lead on the outside and out finishing the others.

In 2015 the casual observer looks at the raw times and thinks the SoCal horses had it all their own way on the lead. They were running in formation to block others from attending the pace? The expected crowd on the 2nd turn did not develop, Why is that? Either the eastern jockeys or horses are relatively slow this time of year.

Bald Assed Opinion - Eastern horses do not peak until mid summer. SoCal not so advantaged @ SAR. East Coasters traveling to DMR not so disadvantaged. The key is climate and that is physical. I\'ve read that scientists are currently exploring the GP to CD phenomena it is so noticeable.

So IMO the only possibility of seeing the three amigos get outrun early is to find a quick sprinter. To think they were relaxed and coasting on the lead is ludicrous.

[RICH]

firing line is in there too

[joemama]

Last decent odds horse to come in at the Preakness was Magic Wisenar.  Can\'t even remember what year that was.  The whole card is typically a chalkiest.  It\'s just not for me.