Lion Heart

[MO]

I don\'t see anyone who can run early with this horse. Another Spend A Buck?
His breeding/distance limitations are a concern, but I see a horrible crop here with soooooo many question marks. Mike Smith is a great guy but is not a master of pace like Jorge Velasquez, but I\'d rather be in front and out of trouble than to take my chances elsewhere.

Smarty is an o-2-X waiting to happen.

Cliff\'s Edge should bounce.

Tapit is interesting, but I\'d be very surprised if this horse is higher than 4-1 at post time making him an underlay.

Master David might get a check.

Can I get 4-1 on Lion Heart?

[bdhsheets]

This Derby is wide open. Harlan\'s Holiday was the 6-1 fav a few years ago, wouldn\'t be surprised to see the same scenario. LH 5-1+ easy. Too many distance questions for the public.

[jbelfior]

LION HEART will be higher than 5-1, but probably lower than 10-1. He will give them all they can handle.... a terrific use in the exactas.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Photofnish]

Doesn\'t the fact that he\'s been caught at 8F and 9F bother you?

Now he tries 10F in a race with more speed. Plus, his breeding for 10F is dubious, and he only has two starts at age three. Will he have the stamina to hold off 19 other horses?

[kev]

Lion Heart 10-1 to 12-1

[MO]

No, it doesn\'t bother me as the 2 races this year were not the ultimate prize. He still ran real fast TG figs, among the best in the field.

More speed? He\'ll be in front by 3 as far as he goes, and that\'s my only concern because he has no points in his stamina wing, but neither did Sunday Silence and a few subsiquent Derby winners. The breed is not what it used to be. The only horse in this field with points in all 5 wings is Tapit.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

MO wrote:

> More speed? He\'ll be in front by 3 as far as he goes

I\'m not nearly as certain of that as you are MO. Take this with a grain of salt, because I\'m feeling very humble. Hopefully the humility will bear out in regard to my wagering plans...lol But Sinister G. is a very quick horse. I believe he\'s got one game and that appears to be front end. I heard they are putting blinkers on, in part because he was \"jumping tracks\" in the Wood. I think anyone assuming Lionheart is gonna get an easy lead may have a big surprise in store. Personally, I think its Lion that is gonna have to rate some. If you missed it Sinister G. made the lead on the turn from far outside in the Wood. However, if you have two committed front end horses in a big field and one of them has gate problems you have a possible Spend a Buck scenario. I guess a lot depends upon the horse you compare to Spend a Buck and the horse you compare to Eternal Prince.

[Photofnish]

I\'m with Chuckles. I think Sinister G will be sent hard.

[Photofnish]

\"No, it doesn\'t bother me as the 2 races this year were not the ultimate prize.\"

I\'d argue that nothing Biancone has done in North America suggests that he knows how to prepare a horse in such a way that he\'ll be ready to peak for the Big Race, whether it\'s the Derby or the BC Juvy.

Mayakovsky, Why Why Why, Brancusi...

This guy is pedal to the metal if you ask me. I believe Lion Heart has shown us his very best.

[MO]

I have found the BRIS pace figures to be quite good and base my calculations for the pace scenario of this race on them. Sinister G may be sent, but he\'ll be chasing Lion Heart, not dueling. However, if LH chooses to stalk, I can live with that as well.

[ronwar]

I\'m of the opinion that Lion should be around the 8-1 range.
I too think he will shake loose of these down the backstretch. As far as Sinister G. goes, I don\'t think he has as much natural speed as Lion.  
There is the adage that says that as a horse stretches out in distance he may relax more(he does not need to use as much energy securing a clear lead as he does going shorter)
So if he can get away with lets say a 47.5 or 48 half and go 1:11.5 or 1:12 for 6F while being clear a length or two, then use that little burst he has to open up three turning for home, he will be awfully tough.

Keep in mind, the two horses that ran him down this year had to run the race of there lives to do it(new tops) and he was well clear of 3rd both times.  And if he runs his race, someone will need another new top to take this very fast fellow down.
I\'m not sure we\'ve seen his best!

[TGJB]

On the who will be on the lead question, connections of those with no hope, who are there to run in the Derby rather than win it, are more likely to want to see their horse in front. Those with serious intent-- especially if there are distance questions-- are more likely to rate. Also, as Watchmaker observed last week, Mike Smith never saw a wide path he didn\'t like.

HOWEVER-- in your run of the mill Derby, 17 horses or so, the average path is about 3 or 4 on each turn, as opposed to a little over 2 in an ordinary race, and every path on a turn is worth a length, or 1/2 point at this distance. In a 20 horse field there is going to be chaos as horses try to come from out of it, and there will be horses who get a 2 turn combined path of 10. Which means a horse who races near the lead and gets a combined path of 4 or 5 will pick up a few lengths from the average horse, and more from some, and won\'t have to deal with the serious traffic problems some will encounter.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Lionheart has to be factored as a big contender and I agree with you that he may not have really been pointed for the previous two, though if that was the case Lionheart probably didn\'t know it.

I understand the logic of him as a selection. Good last number, on its face not too big to knock him out, Cliff could find trouble. Plus Lion hasn\'t always been on the front, I\'m not positive he needs it. He picked up from Limehouse after a quarter last. He ran the Bluegrass with a 46:60 half on a slowish track and he went wideish on the clubhouse turn. That split says he\'s got leader potential. Sinister is right there though. Value Plus is not a slow horse and I think he was running early last, how do his BRIS pace numbers stack up with Lionheart do you know?

I think he probably can run well pressing or from just off. It\'s an intriguing race. Even the pace scenario has drama.

[MO]

Chuckles,

Here are the pace figures for the horses you mention, the higher the number, the faster the pace. (Most recent race 1st and using only 3 yo form)

Lion Heart - 108-105

Sinister G.-94-91-94-106(Mud,stopped)-100-98

Value Plus - 95-92-94

Others?

Read The Footnotes - 91-88

Smarty Jones - 94-84-100

Pollards Vision - 89-101-91-91

Quintons Gold Rush - 98-97-102

[JR]

Seems to me around this time last year there was a Distorted Humor gelding with speed who was always getting caught in shorter races.