Lion Heart

[ronwar]

The more I think about and try to analyze the pace Scenario and looking at the numbers, I come to what seem to be a logical outcome.  And thats kinda scary.  See if you can follow me if you will.
If Lion runs his race, someone will have to come and pick him up.  I don\'t think he\'s spitting out the bit by any means.  The question then comes, who is fast enough to go get him.  Taking into consideration what TGJB said concerning trips in the derby.  A great deal of horses will lose a lot of ground. With that in mind, consider that the fastest horses will be on the pace or rating just of it with the exception of one. That should mean, pretty decent trips
for Lion Heart, Smarty Jones, Read The Footnotes.  In a year such as this, I just can\'t see any of the others, save The Cliff\'s Edge and his fondness Churchill,  working through a trip, getting up and winning the Roses while passing the fastest 3 yr olds of this crop.

Smarty figures right there, with what figures as a perfect trip, distance limitations and all
Footnotes figures for a similar trip off the bench.  Can he get it done? Sure. Will he? we\'ll see.
Cliff\'s Edge will have what may be a more difficult trip, but off that last, maybe he\'s turned the corner.
These are indeed the fastest and considering they may get the best trips, does that mean a merry-go-round of sorts on Derby Day?

[jbelfior]

TCE had to run his eyeballs out to catch LION HEART. I\'m thinking that there\'s a better than 50-50 chance TCE bounces to the moon.

I do not think that LION HEART is SPEND A BUCK, but I agree that the closers in this race will not make anyone forget FOREGO or ALYDAR.

I\'m also thinking that the probable winner will catch LH inside the 1/16th pole and will have been positioned 3-4 lenghts off of him down the backstretch.

As far as his connections go, I agree that Biancone may not be the best fit for a young 3yo.trying to negotiate a 1 1/4m. As for Mike Smith, he tries to stay away from any path that may cause him to get claustrophobic. He\'s been riding like a family man for years now. What\'s he going to do if LH breaks from an inside post??


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[twoshoes]

This horse is clearly the speed of the speed. Smith will be able to choose his path regardless of where he breaks so long as he does so cleanly.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I hear what everyone is saying. My strong suspicion is when the race unfolds and you see who has the lead you\'ll know why you pay what you do for T-Graphs and you\'ll understand why you pay what you do for BRIS.

[MO]

Chuck,

I only use BRIS for the pace figures. TG performance figures are the most important tool though, and LH figs are faster than most save 2, and good enough to win. Of course it will all depend on post time odds. If I can get 4-1 (and I think I\'ll be lucky to get 4-1 when all the discussion is finished), you can count on me havin\' my last $200.00 to win on LH. (With a reverse exacta wheel as a saver)


BTW, I know that you\'ll back me up on the Thunder Gulch issue as I recall you eventually were convinced after thorough review of the video tape. Can\'t find the discussion in archives, though. Good luck to you.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

\"MO\" I remember the discussion well. What I saw supported you\'re position. At the time I seem to recall Stevens was in a bit of a slump. But I\'ve never really been comfortable with Pat Day being involved. I think Pat Day is an up and up guy both now and then. The kind of guy that wouldn\'t put himself in a position to be called a cheat, possessing the character to not sign goofy petitions. It certainly was an odd film. But Thunder won some big races after that so I\'m inclined to think that if he was buzzed Pat Day didn\'t receive the buzzer and that Thunder was good enough to win without being buzzed., i.e. Belmont, Travers, Kentucky Classic.

I was only referring to the BRIS pace number. You get what you pay for. I think Lionheart will be in the 6/8-1 range and I factor him a significant contender. Assuming I\'m correct about the pace, he\'s gonna get first run and what the others encounter may determine whether they get a run at him.

[Silver Charm]

Came Home

[MO]

Interesting comparison SC, care to elaborate? If I recall, the knock on Came Home was he couldn\'t get 10f, but eventually he did.

He was my big play in the Derby and my saver was War Emblem. I made a few bucks.

[twoshoes]

CTC,
I\'m not suggesting I expect this guy to get loose and lead this field a merry chase. Merely that based on everything I\'ve seen, barring anything unforseen at the gate, I expect him to be in front. I\'m not entirely sure a \"sent\" Sinister G or anyone else for that matter has the speed to play anything but pace presser.

[Silver Charm]

Yes, Came Home eventually did against a good group older horses in the Pacific Classic and so did Chiefs Crown in his three year old season.

They just weren\'t up for the task as early as the first Saturday in May.

Good Luck.

[MO]

Thanks. You too.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I don\'t know whats gonna happen for certain either. But assume Sinister gets gate number 4 and Lion Heart gate number 20. The gate is slightly slanted so that the inside horses have a small angle advantage. (At least that is my take on it after viewing the gate placement for years) Anyone wishing to comment on that perception feel free to do so and whether it makes much difference if it is slightly angled.

I have a higher opinion of Sinister G. than most is all. I don\'t view him as a cheap horse that is going be sent to the lead so that the owners can snap a picture at the finish line the first go round. If the shoes are reversed and Lion breaks from the four hole and Sinister the 20, that may change how I handicap the race. I will say I consider Lionheart vulnerable to early pace pressure. If it occurs, that in my opinion certainly has the potential to be his achilles heel, certainly in consideration of what we\'ve viewed from him in his last two. If you view him as an improving horse poised to run even better next the early pressure may not be a factor.

The track will have a lot say about it.

[kev]

Why do you keep saying I hope I will get atless over 4-1, hes going to be no where around that, lowest he will go is 10-1, I see 12-1 closing odds.

[twoshoes]

\'The track will have a lot say about it.\'

Agreed.

[MO]

Well, there\'s always speculation as to what a horse will go off at. Battaglia isn\'t gonna make a morning line favorite at more than 3-1. Smarty Jones will be the favorite at 5-2 post time, maybe less because of the unbeaten factor, the public sentiment hoping he wins a $5Million bonus.

The Cliffs Edge will be 7-2 based on the \"Zito popularity factor\" and his \"impressive\" race at KEE and the fact he like CD.

Tapit is gonna be bet because he won the Wood (3 of the last 4 winners were 1st or 2nd in that race) and because Dickenson is no secret anymore. People think he\'s a genius (could be) and a miracle worker.Dominguez was the leading rider in the country (in wins) last year.

After that, people will look for an edge and there are many who still believe in the dual qualifier system. Lion Heart is a Dual Qualifier. In fact he\'s rated higher than any other entrant save Action This Day (who is too slow).

I began this thread with the comment \"I don\'t see anyone who can run with LH early\" and many of the subsequent posts have agreed, which means, any novice can see that LH is gonna be loose on the lead, unless a gate mishap or a horrible draw happens.

There are enough heavy hitters out there who know that Speed Unchallanged Invariably Wins.

I\'ll post my morning line after the draw (I did this professionally for a year at Delaware Park)and we can see how close I come.

If you like LH as much as I do, I sincerely hope we both get 10-1!! But Martin Luther King had a dream too............



Post Edited (04-23-04 17:44)