Lion Heart

[TGJB]

In a 20 horse field, the average horse is going off at 16-1.

TCE and Smarty Jones both around 5/6-1 (possibly the longest favorite in Derby history), LH and Tapit around 8-1.

[ronwar]

Lion Heart reminds me more of Congaree than Came Home, just faster.
I remember Came Home crawling home in the SA Derby in very slow time. Lion on the other hand has run faster as the distances increased.

[Michael D.]

pedigree: average to below average for 10f. (a bit like WE). tale of the cat\'s offspring win at an average distance of 6.6f, quite short. tg figures also point towards TOTC producing short winded runners. average winning distance for broodmare sire (mr leader) is 7.5f, decent, but not ideal for 10f runners. overall, female family is mixed with sprinters and routers. with hail to reason and nijinski in his pedigree, dosage is on the low side (3.0). stretching from 9f to 10f, i would expect a horse with LH\'s pedigree to regress a bit, but would not be shocked if he got a bit brave.

pace scenerio: PV, QGR, and SJ should all be running fast early (expecting the connections of SG to run next in a race where a \"5-6\" will be competitive). if LH runs faster than :47, he will be on the lead, if he runs slower than that, he will have company. bottom line: LH should be able to get the lead, but will have to run a demanding opening half to be alone (for a 10f race).

the #\'s: as a 2 yr old, the move forward when stretching from 6f to 7f was encouraging, but when stretching to 1 1/16m off 5 weeks rest, LH regressed by a few lengths. the late pace # was not all that good either (90 on the bris scale). after a nice freshening, LH came back in march, and ran a very fast mile, but once again, ran slow late in the race (another 90 late pace #). after a 5 weeks rest, LH comes back and runs one of the fastest derby preps ever over the kee strip. while kee is well known for favoring front running horses, the track that day was not all that fast, and LH still ran a quick 1:49.2, while losing ground by running a bit wide. i was impressed by his race. the overal # of the race was excellent, and the late pace # was average (103)..........

my take on LH is this: i have never thought LH would be a great router, yet i still singled him in the blue grass, mainly because the race was at keenland. so i am stuck asking myself these questions: will LH follow the usual path of speedball that runs well in the blue grass, then flops in the derby??? will LH bounce in the derby because the blue grass took so much out of him??? will LH pull the same stunt as WE, catching some of the other speed off guard while taking advantage of a derby day track that always seems to be juiced up??? right now i am leaning towards tossing the horse if the track is playing neutral on derby day, and using him only in the 3 and 4 spots if the track is playing fast.

[Silver Charm]

Super Work, Mr D

[Michael D.]

thanks...... my top two choices are not running, so if i do this for every horse, i just might talk myself into a good bet (based on past performance, it\'s unlikely though).

[Catalin]

I\'ll go out on a limb fully prepared to make a fool of myself.

Lion Heart has such weak final fraction energy I can\'t see him hitting the board. His late energy is about par for 20k claimers.   As for the pace scenario, I think they\'ll try to rate him, he\'ll make a brief middle move approaching the turn, and will hit the wall in mid stretch.

Catalin

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

If you look at the charts you\'ll see Keeneland played very fairly to all pace styles Bluegrass Day. That fact and the good closing fractions for the top two in the Bluegrass is the best evidence in my opinion for saying a race over that very quirky surface is as legitimately big as the figure makers have made it. I know that last sentence sounds illogical.

The last horse to truly run well in the Bluegrass and win was Strike the Gold.

Sea Hero ran fourth there.

Thunder Gulch ran fourth as well. No Derby winner has run the Bluegrass since Thunder Gulch and in my opinion the track is a different track now than it was then. I haven\'t trusted that track since Pulpit looked so impressive there.

Heres one for TGJB, if someone is inclined and has the time to look into it. What were the T-Graph figures for the winners of the 9 mark major preps in 1997:

Santa Anita Derby
Bluegrass
Wood
Arkansas Derby
Fla. Derby

MO, I also want to comment here on the BRIS pace figures you cited:

Lion Heart - 108-105

Sinister G.-94-91-94-106(Mud,stopped)-100-98

With Sinister that Wood was on a day the one turn races were very fast and the exact nature of the two turn variant very much debatable.  Jerry breaks one and two turn races and I\'m aware of his figures for the Wood and am in accord with them. But I have to wonder if Jerry could even give you a two turn variant upon which to base a pace figure upon:

4up,SHdcp,~35K,10.5:24.26, 49.35, 1:14.86, 1:39.24, 2:03.41, 2:09.63
3yr,750k,9f: 23.74, 47.12, 1:11.40, 1:37.03, 1:49.70
___________________________

3Up,MSW,7f:23.07, 45.96, 1:10.31, 1:22.80
4up,NW2X,8f:22.69, 44.91, 1:09.42, 1:35.41
3up,MSW,7f:22.68, 45.58, 1:10.32, 1:23.46
3up,NW2L,8f:22.75, 45.03, 1:09.85, 1:35.16
4up,NW1X,7f:22.09, 44.23, 1:08.65, 1:21.61
3yr,150K,7f:22.39, 44.39, 1:08.27, 1:20.67
3up,350k,7f:21.77, 43.50, 1:07.52, 1:20.22
4up,NYNW2X,8f:22.97, 45.99, 1:10.33, 1:36.66

I wonder about BRIS\'s methodology for one vs two turns.

As for Sinister\'s Lanes End variant, I have significant reason to believe he actually ran a much quicker pace variant than BRIS has credited him with.

Even BRIS has apparently credited Sinister with a 106 at two turns back a few races. To my mind you have to reach that far back to get a fair approximation of Sinisters two turn pace ability. Even then, I wouldn\'t trust BRIS.

also thanx silver...u did spoil my Keeneland theory though  lol



Post Edited (04-23-04 23:06)

[Michael D.]

ok..... now you have to ask: was it too big?
the horse has had nice breaks between his route races, now he cuts back to three weeks. i have seen some of biancone\'s horses run their eyeball\'s out one race, then run 2f and stop the next (and yes, i know what he accomplished in europe). great horse, and a brilliant blue grass, but plenty of questions still remain.

[Silver Charm]

Remember now, horses have been getting faster:

Captain Bodgit: Fla Derby-6
                Wood-4 1/2

Free House: SA Derby  4 1/2

Pulpit: Blue Grass 5 1/2

Crypto Star: 5 1/2

And The Derby Winner:

Silver Charm

And if you want to watch him and all the other winners click on this link.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2004/derby_history/derby_charts/years/1997.html

One more try



Post Edited (04-23-04 22:45)

[Michael D.]

great year for preps. i can remember watching CB run by pulpit in the stretch at around 4-1. i also remember the free house race very well, as i made a killing on that race betting the wrong part of the entry. were those two races on the same day back then? i seem to remember sitting in the same chair watching the simulcasts at the meadowlands.

[derby1592]

I know some people try to handicap the Derby as if it were just another race but it isn\'t. It is unique. The crowd, the longer distance, the very large field, the hopes and dreams of all the riders/trainers/owners, and the long run to the first turn make it a singular event in the racing world.

In particular, all these factors usually contribute to a fast, early pace regardless of how fast the horses have been running in their preps. This year will be another large field with several quality speed horses (LH, SJ, QGR and RTF) and a few other quick horses of lesser quality. Unless they all draw into the middle posts (unlikely), those drawing inside or outside posts will probably feel forced to send their horses early to get or maintain a good position.

Here is a little data to chew on. Between 1985 and 1998 (I don\'t have the recent years handy) there were 11 Derbies run with 15 or more horses entered. Below are the 4f splits for each. Note that NONE was 47 or above.

45.2
46.4
46.8
46.6
46.0
46.4
46.8
46.6
45.8
46.2
46.4

The median is 46 and 2/5 seconds (7 of the 11 were that fast or faster). I think it is safe to say that we are likely to see fractions at least that fast this year. I would strongly recommend against handicapping the race assuming the LH will set a half mile fraction of 47 or slower and have the lead.

Also keep in mind that after the 2001 suicidal pace duel trainers and riders were reluctant to send their horses the last 2 years and subsequently front runners have won both races. I have a feeling that tactics may be very different this year given that recent history. Also, keep in mind that it almost never works to try and change tactics in the Derby and rate a speed horse and I just don\'t see it happening this year with several quality speed horses likely to take their chances using what worked to get them there.

Should be a fun Derby for sure. I am not saying that LH will not win, I am just suggesting that he will probably have to work hard throughout the entire 10f to do so.

Chris



Post Edited (04-23-04 23:13)

[Silver Charm]

Where in the world have you been ??

Keeping info like the above post to yourself ??

Thanks Chris.

[MO]

Lion Heart\'s 1/2 mile fractions going long are 46.3;  45.3; 46.2;

So I don\'t expect a 47 half at all. With Mike in the saddle and the usual souped up track at CD, I expect a sub 46 half. That\'s why he\'ll be 3 in front on the turn and the others will have to run their eye balls out to catch him.

 I can hear Durkin now: \"Lion Heart is tenaaaaaatious - , he\'s still there!! Lion Heart, he\'s in front by 3!! Lion Heart, has won it!!Lion Heart has won the 130th running of the Kentucky Derby,  and he was all heart today!!

ROFLMAO

[Michael D.]

the 2001 speed duel happened because two or three speedballs drew inside (way inside, like three of the four inside posts). unless we see the same kind of draw this year, don\'t bet on those fractions. as for the speed, i think SG is staying home, RTF will try to rate a bit, and smarty and QGR will do what they have been doing (running at a :47 clip or so). PV is the big wild card here. if JR goes for the lead, things could get a bit hot, if not, i say LH is on top hitting the half in :46.3

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Very impressive analysis Chris. Thank you.

The fractions aren\'t as significant to me as the horses that set them and thats what I\'d like to know. I attempted to ascertain that. Though the source I\'m using doesnt have fractional leaders:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2003/derby_history/derby_charts/years/1997.html

2003- Brancusi/Peace Rules
2002- 47:04 War Emblem (wire job)
2001- Songandaprayer/Millenium Wind
2000- Graeme Hall
1999- 47:88 (Valhol..slow track)
1998- Old Trieste, stumbled led for a mile
1997- 47:2 Pulpit (hung on for 4th)
1996- Honor and Glory
1995- Serena\'s Song/Wild Syn (I enjoyed reading this chart...it said Afternoon Deelites didn\'t like my selection \"Jumron\" and quote \"attempted to savage him out of the gate\"...lol
1994- 47:1 (wire job)
1993- Storm Tower (Perkins trainee)
1992- 47:2 Dance Floor held on for 3rd
1991- Sea Cadet/Forty Something
1990- Real Cash (Lukas trainee)
1989- Houston
1988- Winning Colors (wire job)
1987- Capote (not sure though sounds contested)
1986- Groovy
1985- Spend a Buck (wire job)

When you view the horses you see some decent quality hot pace winners.

You see some that were good horses but maybe not 10 mark horses like Old Trieste had a horrible start) and Sea Cadet and Serena\'s Song and Peace Rules. ( I take that back about Sea Cadet, he won at 10 marks at Gulfstream)

Then you also see horses that really weren\'t Derby horses like Houston and Goovy and Real Cash.

The point being if the pace goes below 47 a quality Derby horse can win. But the other part of that issue is who are the quality Derby horses without the benefit of hindsight? Then there is the consideration of a 47 plus pace. The results tend to indicate even at that more moderate pace it still takes a horse with some 10 mark ability to win. You could argue that Go for Gin and War Emblem don\'t really fit that bill, but its argueable.



Post Edited (04-24-04 00:36)