Materiality

[covelj70]

why is this horse 12-1 on the early Morning Line?

Am I missing something?

1) He\'s the fastest horse coming into the race
2) He has won twice going 1 1/8, something no one else in the field has done
3) He is the only one of the top contenders to beat another good horse (Dortomund, AP, Frosted, Firing Line and Carpe Diem all beat tin cans in the final tune-up)
4) He has tactical speed that will keep him out of trouble

Is it really because he didn\'t run as a 2 year old?  He won on Jan. 11th.  So if he had run 12 days earlier, that is somehow supposed to matter 5 months later? That\'s the dumbest thing I have ever heard

In terms of seasoning and foundation

1) He has two 1 1/8 races which no one else has, not to mention on a track everyone considered deep and tiring which only adds to the fitness level
2) Had a tough stretch dual which no one else in the top flight had to further build foundation
3) most importantly, he bounced out of the Florida Derby in tremendous shape with a monster breeze last weekend (came home in 22 and change in that breeze).  That\'s the truest test of how much foundation a horse has.  If he didn\'t have enough foundation, he would have been gutted by that race.


Materiality may not win because American Pharoah may just be that brilliant or Materiality gets a bad post, etc but I don\'t understand why he\'s 12-1 right now when the horses ahead of him are a) slower, b) less battle tested, and c) no better pedigree wise than he is for the 1 1/4

If there\'s something other than foundation and the no 2 year old race (which is totally silly), please let me know

[SoCalMan2]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> why is this horse 12-1 on the early Morning Line?
>
> Am I missing something?
>
> 1) He\'s the fastest horse coming into the race
> 2) He has won twice going 1 1/8, something no one
> else in the field has done
> 3) He is the only one of the top contenders to
> beat another good horse (Dortomund, AP, Frosted,
> Firing Line and Carpe Diem all beat tin cans in
> the final tune-up)
> 4) He has tactical speed that will keep him out of
> trouble
>
> Is it really because he didn\'t run as a 2 year
> old?  He won on Jan. 11th.  So if he had run 12
> days earlier, that is somehow supposed to matter 5
> months later? That\'s the dumbest thing I have ever
> heard
>
> In terms of seasoning and foundation
>
> 1) He has two 1 1/8 races which no one else has,
> not to mention on a track everyone considered deep
> and tiring which only adds to the fitness level
> 2) Had a tough stretch dual which no one else in
> the top flight had to further build foundation
> 3) most importantly, he bounced out of the Florida
> Derby in tremendous shape with a monster breeze
> last weekend (came home in 22 and change in that
> breeze).  That\'s the truest test of how much
> foundation a horse has.  If he didn\'t have enough
> foundation, he would have been gutted by that
> race.
>
>
> Materiality may not win because American Pharoah
> may just be that brilliant or Materiality gets a
> bad post, etc but I don\'t understand why he\'s 12-1
> right now when the horses ahead of him are a)
> slower, b) less battle tested, and c) no better
> pedigree wise than he is for the 1 1/4
>
> If there\'s something other than foundation and the
> no 2 year old race (which is totally silly),
> please let me know

Also, assuming his sheet reads the way I expect it to read, he has a very important pattern in that he has not yet hit a reaction point.  In my experience, it is more risky to give a horse a reaction before it first gives you a reaction.  On one hand, while a lot of people view the light experience as a downside, there is an upside to it as well which is that the horse still has more to gain from more experience that the others already have.  I suspect that 12-1 will look like an enticing price for this horse. One thing that is scary is that these same principles may suggest that American Pharoah is ready for an additional forward move in the Derby.  Something tells me we may see the best fig ever in a Derby this year. Has anybody ever made a top 10 or top 20 of the best figs ever run in the derby? That would be an interesting list to see.  I would like to see where the best fig to not win the derby fits in with all the winners.

[joemama]

2) He has won twice going 1 1/8, something no one else in the field has done .

Sans Mubtaahij.  He won twice at 1/1/8 according to pp.\'s.  Man was that name hard
to spell.

[Agastache]

I think the problem is that we\'ve all been down this road before chasing these TAP horses that spring up out of Florida and start dominating everything in their path: Constitution, Danza, Verrazano, Eskendereya, Algorithms.

Let\'s be honest, we are all expecting this horse to show up with a hairline fracture or a bone chip or something that is going to knock him off the trail.

For me, its the Pletcher-Florida angle that concerns more than anything. I\'m not that concerned about the lack of 2 year old foundation. These TAPs seem to go nuts in Florida and then regress when they come north.

[touchgold]

scat daddy also...

[miff]

Where Cordero/Johhny V decide to go will be of interest. Barring Carpe Diem getting hurt it\'s rumored he\'ll ride him but Angel very \"cute\" when asked.

Surprising both owners, Carpe and Materiality aren\'t a bit put off. Obviously, Castellano gets the other one.

Jim might have left out that Materiaity is big/tough type also, maybe why he\'s not showing to be gutted right now.

Only Big Brown,in modern history, won Derby with only 3 starts going in,one grass route at 2.

[covelj70]

great point on the Pletcher injuries but.....

Verazanno and Scat Daddy had no chance on the pedigree (Verazaano actually went off as a big price bc of the pedigree)

Constitution, ESK, Algo were hurt before the Derby so they never got to run


I make this argument every year but when has Pletcher had the fastest horse going into the race that had the pedigree to make the distance and that horse hasn\'t won?  he hasn\'t

for all the noise about his poor derby record, his horses run the same percentage of tops and pairs as the avg horse running in the derby.

he just hasn\'t ever had THE horse yet

Esk and Constitution would have been the horse(s) but unfortunately, they were hurt

I can tell you very confidently that Materiality is absolutely physically thriving right now.  There\'s still 19 days to go but he is doing very very well.  

This is a different situation for Pletcher this year with this particular horse than any of the ones that people want to criticize him for

now, maybe bc of AP, Pletcher picked the wrong year to have THE horse so I have no problem with someone giving me that pushback but Materiality will be double the price so I have to lean in that direction

[johnnym]

For me it\'s Pletcher as well as no 2 year old foundation. Is the only reason this horse showed up was Khozan went down?   If Pletcher beats than he beats me.

[covelj70]

ah, I keep forgetting about that one, yes, thank you very much for that one

[joemama]

I just got finished looking at his recent races on youtube.  Had 3 very impressive races in Dubai.  I don\'t want to open my mouth and insert foot.  There are a lot of positives here.

[Fairmount1]

Everyone on the board knows how I feel about Pletcher so I won\'t belabor the points.  But you asked...so.

Gemologist.

Win over the track in the fall in the KyJC.  Undefeated going in.  Pair of 2\'s coming in.  Bode came in on 5, 2, 3, 0.  IHA came in 1, 3. I guess Gem just didn\'t like that surface at Churchill.  And clearly he was leap years behind in the figs.

Son of Tiznow.  Terrible breeding.  Guess his mother was too speedy.

He was third choice at 8.60-1.  Had a perfect position and trip.  RESULT: empty.  After his Wood, everyone talked about his determination to win, etc etc.  People have caught on to Pletcher\'s Derby woes well before now.  Change the name of Gemologist\'s trainer for his achievements to Drysdale, Sherman, Mandella, or countless others and Gemologist would have been the favorite.   That\'s why Materiality\'s odds are so \"long\" in early forecasts.  

Already making excuses for Materiality is amusing.  Poor guy just never has the fastest horse, the best bred horse, etc etc.

[joemama]

I\'m inclined to go with the historical phenomena in this race.  IF something is going to happen the first time then it can beat me , fine.

[magicnight]

Should we make allowances for a \"Winstar Pletcher\"?

After all, they put the \"1\" in the \"1 for 40-something\". And Castner/Walden know a little about getting a horse ready for the TC.

[joemama]

Gemologist only raced twice after the Wood.  Finish up the track (16th) in the Kentucky Derby and then 6th in a field of 6 in the Haskell.  Something must have went awry with the horse.

[TGJB]

Tell you what, Jim. Rather than break down the Pletcher 3yos by distance, try it by racetrack. See what figures they run at GP, Mth, Tampa, CD, etc.

Correlation is not causation.