Materiality

[miff]

Think many fooled by Florida Derby which was fastest prep on my scorecard.Horse that finished 3rd, not a complete bum, was 14 behind Mat and 12 1/2 behind Upstart.

[covelj70]

I remember having this exact discussion with many on this board about how you can\'t bet Pletcher in the Derby before the Super Saver Derby and then having everyone tell me (and a few others) that we just got lucky because he had a perfect trip or caught a sloppy track or the \"good\" horses drew a bad post that year.

[covelj70]

JB, I hear where you are coming from on this point and it\'s a fair point

here\'s what I will say

The year that we ran FS in the Derby, our barn was directly across from Todd\'s barn and so I got to see the 5 he ran that year in the Derby up close and personal every single day for a week.

I commented on the board at the time that the one that far and away looked the best was Palice Malice and that the others didn\'t have any meat left on the bone at all by the time we got to Derby week.  Palice Malice ran a heck of a race that day and came back to win the big one next out.  Revolutionary ran well but didn\'t move forward like he would have needed to to win.

I can promise you this, Materiality looks better and is training better than anything he has run in the Derby in recent years.

May not be good enough to beat AP but he will run his race whether he prepped at GP, Ark or on the moon.

[TGJB]

The issue is not specific to Materiality. But re him, the question (one of them) is what \"his race\" is outside Florida.

Quality Road, Dreaming Of Julia... it\'s quite a list of giant Pletcher GP figures, and not just with 3yos. Amazingly, Constitution came back around after he got back there.

[covelj70]

Quality Road was pretty awesome up at the Spa figure wise if I remember correctly

Dunkirk ran big figs in Fla and then ran bigger in NY

Commissioner (you knew I had to bring this one up after all the grief you gave me for having a \"man crush\" on him) ran his best figs outside of Florida

we can\'t only look at the ones that prove your point, we have to consider all of them

to that end, look at his Oaks fillies.  Plenty of them have brought their race with them to KY.  Rags to Riches, Princess of Slymar, etc  all ran tops on Derby weekend with the same \"protocols in place\"  

now, if Materiality gets to KY and he looks like Uncle Mo or some of the others that fell apart after they left Florida, then I am with you 100% but if he looks on May 1st like he looks today, those stats are meaningless to me

[covelj70]

Fairmount, I just went back and looked

There were 7 horses in the Gemologist Derby that had run faster than Gemologist had coming into the race.

Not picking on you or anything b/c I think this proves the whole point about Pletcher and the Derby.

Conventional wisdom is that Gemologist was the horse to beat that year.

No one who uses the TGs should have considered the horse won of the main contenders let alone the horse to beat

the fact that you cited him as a horse that was a) the fastest and b) had the pedigree is case in point that most of the ones that people cite as examples of Pletcher disappointing in the Derby aren\'t good examples at all.

again, really not trying to trying to pick on anyone bc I had others text me \"gemologist\" after my post

[ajkreider]

Verazzano\'s next out was the Wood win.  So wasy Esky\'s.  Danza\'s was the Arkansas.  Those are grade one\'s next out.

[mjellish]

Off Pletcher coming out of Florida.  I get it.

This colt also seems to be thriving right now.  I get it.

But they don\'t win this race on talent alone.  They have to have the mind for it.  Not saying he does or he doesn\'t as we don\'t know.  I know connections are very high on him.  Wish they would ship him to CD now rather than later.

Remember, Curlin looked like a pretty good thing in 2007 off 3 starts as a big Colt.  But he couldn\'t make the trip in Louisville, from the 2 post I think.  And look what he turned out to be.

This one will be much better odds.  But that\'s why I keep saying post position in this one is everything.  You ask me, if Mat gets anything inside of 10 with most of the other speed outside him he is a dead duck unless he\'s mature beyond his seasoning.

[covelj70]

thanks for the thoughts MJ

I certainly don\'t want to see him down too far inside, that\'s no good for any of them

I think this horse has an amazing mind and demeanor from what I have seen and heard

I think it would be fine if there is some of the speed to his outside but I don\'t want all of the speed to his outside to your point

I honestly can\'t wait to see this race.

I am so so curious as to how fast AP can really go if pressed.  Is he one of these that can\'t go any faster if he\'s pressed or have we only just seen the surface of his talent so far (scary thought).  If it\'s just scratching the surface, then, as someone referenced earlier, Big Brown\'s Derby best TG is in danger of falling.

I also loved the point someone else made about how Materiality hasn\'t reacted yet.

Remember when many of us (not MJ but many of the rest of us) believed that Big Brown would react to the Florida Derby figure and instead he moved forward?

very exciting stuff

[TGJB]

Ahem. Memories can be deceiving.

Rags To Riches never ran in Fla.

Princess Of Sylmar never ran in Fla.

Dunkirk did not run bigger in NY.

Quality Road and Commish ran their best figures in Fla, but like Dunkirk ran well in NY as well.

The point is this-- of the ones who DO run huge figures in Fla, how do they do in other places. And this is a comment about Pletcher, not Materiality.

[Gerard]

I like the Curlin comparison to AP this year. He\'ll be something special, but off the three weeks rest, and the big win, perhaps he gets off a step slow as has been written in this forum before.

[covelj70]

thanks for the data

I must be missing the point though

these are mostly examples of his horses that either ran well in KY (i.e. the protocols/testing didn\'t prevent them from running their race on Derby/Oaks day) or who ran as fast or faster outside of Fla compared to in Florida.

Did I miss the point of our debate? (entirely possible)

[covelj70]

Gerald, that\'s an awesome point

So many times the horses coming off big new tops (as was suggested both Mat and AP are) break slowly and that\'s where MJ\'s point about the post draw comes into play even more

easier to recover from an outside draw than an inside one

Most of the time (definitely not all but most) of the time horses break poorly is because they are sore behind.  Not unusual that big efforts create sore back ends in horses

AP back end wasn\'t looking so robust when he got off the plane yesterday but he lost a lot of weight after his last race as well and then he put most of it back on before the Ark Derby.  Will be interesting to see how his weight 2 weeks from now compares to today.  I would expect him to look significantly different/better in a few weeks than he did getting off the plane yesterday coming right off a big effort race

[TGJB]

Only one ran faster outside Fla (Commissioner), and he didn\'t put up big figures in Fla. Dunkirk ran back to his Fla fig once he got away from CD.

Your point was that list disproves or counterbalances the many that have put up huge figures at tracks where, shall we say, circumstances are different than at the Derby or BC, but have not run back to them there. In the case of Mth and GP, very different circumstances. That list does not do that.

[covelj70]

Super Saver ran faster at CD on Derby Day than he did in Florida