Bodemeister

[justwin]

Miff,
If you look at the last 6 races vs. the first 6 races you will see the speed bias for the latter races. Bode was impressive but not as impressive as everyone is touting. He had all the conditions his way against a terrible field where the 2nd best horse is suspect at the distance. All you see and hear is that he came home in 11 4/5 but he also came home in 37 4/5. There was plenty to like as he is probably the best of this bunch. the question is whether its too many races in a short span and if it will take its toll.

[TGJB]

You\'re not kidding.

[miff]

Just,

The wires later in the card can also be somewhat attributed to the best horses winning,check those wire winners going in. I do not subscribe to any theory where a track playing honest all day suddenly becomes biased sans weather or track maintenance changes.

As far as Bode, many are also disregarding that he was used hard the whole first quarter getting over the 2 horse(broke a step outward also).Yes,he got to relax in the middle part and then ran away from a decent horse late.A mild wind was blowing was against BODE into the first fast quarter and in the stretch,for whatever thats worth.It did not seem to be relevant,imo,others valued it.

What Bode will do in the derby is a very tough call for me but those trying to make him look like anything but much the fastest over 90% of these going in must be looking at figures other than what I am.

Good Luck

Mike

[TGJB]

Mike-- actually, over 85%, top to top. Not to split hairs...

You\'re right about the tough call. Especially after the Downey research. Might have to use that in the seminar...

Jimbo-- the Oaks is a much simpler race, and possibly a great betting one depending on who ends up going. Shhhh....

Package later this week, We\'re going out with it before the Lexington.

[covelj70]

Jimbo, interesting to me that you didn\'t mention gemologist.

I dont\' know his last figure yet from the wood but why are you leaning against him but including Alpha who he beat at this stage?

Not saying I disagree, just curious.

thanks

[Michael D.]

big forward moves prior to the Derby was the study (misleading the way I labeled it), just about all were tops though. the two that ran poorly in the 99 Derby after taking a lot of money, General Challenge and Excellent Meeting, both included in the study, were coming off big forward moves, but not big new tops. GC\'s was a somewhat ugly 4.5 move with a \"bi\".

[P-Dub]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Baffert\'s most successful Derby horses did not
> come in off big tops. POTN came in off a 0.5 top,
> War Emblem a pair, Real Quiet a 0.5 top, and
> Silver Charm a pair. The closest thing to a big
> top and a good finish was Congaree, who ran off a
> 2.5 top and paired. All the other tops led to
> regressions. Here they are, most recent on top:
>
> 3.75 top - 4.5 back
> 2.25 top - 17 back
> 3 top - 5 back
> 8 top - 15 back
> 3 top - 12 back
> 6 top - 9 back
> 3.5 top - 1.75 back
> 4.5 top - 1.5 back
> 3.75 top - 1.5 back
>
>
> We talked about Sinister Minister, but the other
> interesting Baffert runners from the \'06 Derby are
> Point Determined, who came in off a 3 point top,
> took good money, and backed up 5 points, and Bob
> and John, who also ran off a 3 point top and took
> action, and collapsed.
>
> Bode might look a lot like Congaree, who ran off a
> 2.5 top on 3 weeks rest after the visually
> impressive 1:47.9 in the Wood. Congaree paired,
> and probably would have run faster had he not
> gotten sucked into the brutal pace. Baffert\'s best
> Derby performances, though, involved horses coming
> in off pairs or fractional moves.

FWIW, I thing Congaree was also a lightly raced 2YO.  Maybe ran once??

[Michael D.]

yeah, had just the one two-year old race at Dmr. the buzz around Congaree was very similar to what we\'re seeing with Bode. Cong went off a bit higher (7-1) than Bode (9-2?), mostly because we had a big favorite that year in Point Given.

[Topcat]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> big forward moves prior to the Derby was the study
> (misleading the way I labeled it), just about all
> were tops though. the two that ran poorly in the
> 99 Derby after taking a lot of money, General
> Challenge and Excellent Meeting, both included in
> the study, were coming off big forward moves, but
> not big new tops. GC\'s was a somewhat ugly 4.5
> move with a \"bi\".

And that was one of the most bizarre runnings of modern times . . .
I was there, sitting upstairs on the third level, so had a
great overall view . . . that was the \"amoeba\" Derby, in which
there was no dedicated frontrunner to stretch the field out . . .
they all raced in the tightest bunch you\'ve ever seen for at least a half . . .
McCarron recalls he was caught between horses and his mount was actually
carried a couple of strides without touching the ground, between two others . . .

[phil23]

Had Congaree at 300:1.  Was excited for about 1/2 a second at the top of the stretch. Still haven\'t forgiven Monarchos, who was my worst result, in a race I had completely middled.

Regarding Point Given - I seem to recall his work was raved about up and down the backstretch as the greatest ever.  And look what happened.  Too much is made these days of the \"best\" working horse at CD.  For every horse that runs well that worked good, there is one that worked good that runs poorly.  But people never bring those up.  Selective memory.

[alm]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Baffert\'s most successful Derby horses did not
> come in off big tops. POTN came in off a 0.5 top,
> War Emblem a pair, Real Quiet a 0.5 top, and
> Silver Charm a pair. The closest thing to a big
> top and a good finish was Congaree, who ran off a
> 2.5 top and paired. All the other tops led to
> regressions. Here they are, most recent on top:
>
> 3.75 top - 4.5 back
> 2.25 top - 17 back
> 3 top - 5 back
> 8 top - 15 back
> 3 top - 12 back
> 6 top - 9 back
> 3.5 top - 1.75 back
> 4.5 top - 1.5 back
> 3.75 top - 1.5 back
>
>
> We talked about Sinister Minister, but the other
> interesting Baffert runners from the \'06 Derby are
> Point Determined, who came in off a 3 point top,
> took good money, and backed up 5 points, and Bob
> and John, who also ran off a 3 point top and took
> action, and collapsed.
>
> Bode might look a lot like Congaree, who ran off a
> 2.5 top on 3 weeks rest after the visually
> impressive 1:47.9 in the Wood. Congaree paired,
> and probably would have run faster had he not
> gotten sucked into the brutal pace. Baffert\'s best
> Derby performances, though, involved horses coming
> in off pairs or fractional moves.


When I started this string of posts, this is exactly the kind of response I was hoping for.  You did a great piece of work here, something I would not have the time nor patience to do.  But it made a point that was only an impression I\'ve had about Baffert.  He\'s a great trainer for sure, but he seems so desperate to repeat his Triple Crown successes that he\'s changed his style...pressing horses to big efforts to get them ready.  Pletcher on the other hand has learned to move in the opposite direction and he may be more competitive than ever as time goes on.  And he\'s not the only one.  As someone pointed out a few days back, beware of our friend Kieran third off the layoff.  That\'s not a freak statistic, it\'s a trainer intended outcome.  Doesn\'t always work, but his Alpha may be sitting on a big one.

[justwin]

I thought Kieran was hot 2nd off the layoff. Is it 3rd off the layoff? I have some worries about Alpha being urged a little early in the Wood and the subsequent infection.  I am anxiously awaiting the numbers. Pre- numbers I would play Dullahan. lets see where I end up.

[Holybull]

I\'ve got a feeling that once the numbers come out there will be a new \"wiseguy\" horse that no one has been talking about yet.

[mjellish]

What do you think about the combination of antiboitcs, legs and colts 2 weeks before the KY Derby?

[FrankD.]

The perfect recipe for disaster.