Bodemeister

[alm]

I\'ve cautioned against looking backwards into history to interpret today\'s forward look into the Derby picture, but why don\'t we consider a possible reference point for Bodemeister\'s big win this past weekend.  Check out comparisons to Sinister Minister...the popup big Blue Grass winner six years ago.  The horse had Baffert, a one race form improvement, and a big, big flop in the Derby.  Will history repeat?

[covelj70]

Alm,

I have no idea who I am playing yet in the Derby so this is less a comment on Bode and more of a comment on the logic of your statement.

To compare a horse with Sinister Minister\'s pedigree (Old Trieste on top with the first two dams being by The Prime Minister and Hurry up Blue) to Bodemeister\'s pedigree with Empire Maker on top and the first three dams being by Storm Cat, AP Indy and Roberto) is a real stretch to say the least.

One never had any chance to get the distance, the other is bred as well to get the distance as anything we have seen in the race in a long time.

Bode could certainly spit the bit if he and Hansen get locked up in a crazy speed dual but just comparing two front running horses because they have the same trainer doesn\'t give a complete picture without at least mentioning the pedigrees.

[Silver Charm]

And the fact that particular year in the Blue Grass the track was CRAZY rail speed favoring and Baffert sent that horse there knowing that.....and SENT him!!

Which by the way is about what he does with everything he sends to Oaklawn.

And that is only an Oaklawn analysis about Baffert. Not Bode.

Now about Apollo....

[miff]

Al,

Sin Min was a smallish nickle bred slug compared to Bode.Bode had a foundation of two good figs before his latest big fig.Sin Min was the toss of all tosses for sheet players,pattern wise.Bode is a problem toss and has license to embarrass this group,don\'t see that in any other contender,going in.

If I posted his conversion pattern TG/RAGS/BEYER
vs the other contenders,you might tap out if unfazed by 3 weeks spacing, no 2yr old foundation,a possible early war up front.Rag friend, sharp sheet pattern reader,thinks Bode ran his derby on Sat and will regress but he\'s a devout Kool Aid Drinker!

What contender can you put in post 11 last Sat that has demonstrated the ability to run as fast as Bode did? I have not seen one yet.

Mike

[Rick B.]

alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'ve cautioned against looking backwards into
> history to interpret today\'s forward look into the
> Derby picture...

> The horse had Baffert, a one race form improvement,
> and a big, big flop in the Derby.  Will history repeat?

Don\'t these \"big effort in final prep\" types usually stumble at the start in the Derby, or have some other gate trouble that results in them not winning but getting very close?

No science in this, of course (the 2-0-op pattern?)...just weird.

[ajkreider]

The spacing is the biggest issue for sure.  This quote from Baffert after Bode\'s big maiden effort:  "I'll have to give extra time and run him back (in a stakes race) in March somewhere\". Then four weeks of rest.  

This quote from after the San Felipe,"He ran well. He just got a little tired. He ran a pretty hard race."  Then five weeks spacing, including passing on the SA Derby.  Part of that was probably earnings, but part was the need for rest. And now he runs even bigger, and is coming back in three (with a big jump up in weight).  Will get one work at most.  

I wouldn\'t be that shocked if in a couple of weeks they looked at the horse and decided to train up until the Preakness. Thing is though, he could regress and still probably win at Churchill.

(Thanks to Downey for the quotes).

[Michael D.]

what Jim said, and Sinister Minister ran a :13.41 final 1/8 that day over the craziest speed favoring track this sport has ever seen. what he did there was not going to work running 10f at CD. what Bode did on Sat will work in the Derby if he gets a similar trip. he won\'t stop. but will he get the same trip? how much does he regress if he\'s not comfortable through that opening mile? recall Rachel\'s Oaks from a few years back. she dominated slow fillies with a big figure and :12 final 1/8. it was easy to picture another fast eighth and a very fast mile and a quarter. well, she came back on short rest and collapsed in the next 1/16 of the Preakness (:07) with a more demanding trip (backed up 4 full points). Bode could do the same if forced to work harder, and that type of collapse would be fatal going an extra 1/8 vs a strong group.

what Borel does here is crucial, because I don\'t think Dominguez is going head-to-head with Smith.

[MonmouthGuy]

Michael D. Wrote:
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>
> what Borel does here is crucial, because I don\'t
> think Dominguez is going head-to-head with Smith.



Michael. Do you think his horse gives him any other choice?  I don\'t know if there is any other way to ride Hansen.  The Gotham trip seems like an \"accident.\"

[miff]

Some talk about Bellamy Road,Curlin, Bode comparison,losing after big fig preps.Can\'t imagine a racing reason why anything some other horse/horses has ever done before has relevance to how Bode will perform in the Derby.No matter how Bode does, you can back into the result after the race, same for all of them.

For those who follow, the track at OP was dead honest as far as running styles go on Sat,paths another story.


Mike

[miff]

AJ,

Downey forgot another quote that Baffert made after the San Felipe \"he will go gorward off this race\" I think he did on Sat.

Mike

[Michael D.]

MonmouthGuy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael D. Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> >
> > what Borel does here is crucial, because I
> don\'t
> > think Dominguez is going head-to-head with
> Smith.
>
>
>
> Michael. Do you think his horse gives him any
> other choice?  I don\'t know if there is any other
> way to ride Hansen.  The Gotham trip seems like an
> \"accident.\"


I think the connections view the Gotham as a win with a good speed figure - a success. and I believe the trip was by design.

this Hansen guy appears to understand pace. Dominguez certainly does. I don\'t think they come to the conclusion that going head-to-head with Bode is the best way to win the race.

could be wrong though. they won the key Juvy setting a good pace and would prefer not to see Bode cruise along by himself. tricky call on the pace.

[covelj70]

I think you have identified THE key issue in the race.

Remebering that this is a TG board, I want to be mindful that this is really about who has the best numbers.

But in this case, there are a number of them that are in the same category numbers wise that this is going to come down to who gets to run their race.

If Bode is allowed to go out there by himself, he will be able to run his race and likely win as he is the fastest horese coming in the race.  If Hansen goes with him, he likely won\'t be able to run his race and one of the 5 or 6 others who have the right numbers/patten come into the mix.

I think Hansen is just so natually fast that Ramon won\'t have any choice.  If he tries to take him back, he will take the horse out of his game and he will allow Bode to go uncontested.  If he goes with him, Hansen has no shot and Bode\'s chances are significantly compromised.

I don\'t think any of these other front running types have the natural speed to keep up with those two and I don\'t see anyone else who wants to go on a suicide mission with Bode.

So, if we can figure out what Hansen is going to do, I think that\'s a huge huge key to this race

[Wrongly]

Why can\'t Bode rate just off the speed like he did in the San Felipe?  Let Hansen and Borel go after it.

As for the Apollo thing, I think it simply reinforces the bounce theory.  No racing at 2 means the horse must run some big races close together.  Midnight Interlude, Summerbird, Dunkirk, Curlin most can\'t string the big figures.

[bstaubs22]

Baffert was interviewed by HRTV this past Sunday and said he did not want to take Bode\'s weapon away from him, which is natural speed. I don\'t think they have any plans on rating him.

[jimbo66]

Would agree with what has been said here except I don\'t think there is much chance for an abnormally fast pace.  If you look at the Derbies that collapsed with fast paces, you had more than 2 horses firing early.  You had elements like Keyed Entry, Sinister Minister and others in that fast pace.  The Monarchos year there were 4 or 5 horses pressing a fast pace.  

If you take a look at the list of top 20 to 25 horses on the earnings list I count exactly 2 as frontrunners.  Bodemeister and Hansen.  (assuming Trinniberg doesn\'t go, which would change the race dramatically for me, if he did).  I don\'t understand some of what I have heard from commentators about TAke Charge Indy being a frontrunner as I don\'t see this horse as a front runner at all.  He will be 3 to 4 lengths off of it, on the rail.  So, with 2 confirmed frontrunners, with two smart jockeys, I think the chances of a \"duel\" are pretty slim.  Both have such natural speed, I don\'t think we see a slow pace, but I see a normal derby pace, so this is NOT the year to play the grindy, slug closers.

Right now, I am thinking there is one bigger factor than the pace.  I am hoping the idiots that maintain the track at Churchill stop their 4-event streak of having a slow, deadish rail, speed-sapping track.  After two Breeder\'s Cups in a row and 2 Derbies in a row of that kind of track, I am hoping for an honest racetrack for a change.  Not one that compromises any horse with speed/brilliance as a weapon.  If that is the case, I actually think this is a \"chalky\" Derby, at least for the top spot.  Seeing Union Rags and Bodemeister as by far the most likely winners.  The former is one bad ride away from coming into this race as the solid 2-1 favorite and am expecting him to run a huge race at Churchill.  And Bodemeister just might have become an absolute monster.  Looking for value in the vertical wagers, at least at this point.

Good luck