Bodemeister

[mjellish]

Seems to me one of the biggest keys to getting the 1 1/4 is you have to have a horse that can relax, and I think there is more to that than just pace.  Bode doesn\'t have a lot of experience.  He also has a history of getting worked up and hot pre-race.  So even if we assume he gets the pace AND doesn\'t regress due to his recent effort, will he still handle the stress of a 20 horse, rough and tumble field with a packed grandstand and infield?  Will he be able to relax enough to work out a trip?

Those are big questions.  And as someone already pointed out, Curlin couldn\'t do it.  Look what he turned out to be...

So regardless of pace, I just think there are questions about this colt that just aren\'t going to be answered until after the race.  Yo  

For what it\'s worth, I\'ve been following this colt all spring since I heard that he was outworking Secret Circle in the AM when they were workmates.  If you look at what Baffert has been doing with Bode in the AM it\'s obvious he gets what the colt needs to learn.  Leading up to the ARK Derby, 2 and 3 works back, Baffert had Bode out behind a workmate and the whole point of the works were to teach the colt to stay behind, relax and wait until asked.  Bode responded without being rank at all, waited, and then finished exactly when asked.  In the one work he got stuck behind a wall of other workers and still weaved through traffic,  and in the other he blew by his workmate (a small level stakes type) and then topped the work off with a DOUBLE gallop out of two, 12 and change 1/8ths around the bend.  They were both good works, but the second one was a hell of a work for anyone who saw it or heard about it.  To me it provided some evidence that Bode was at least coming around and learning what he needed to do - and more importantly that he was sitting on a big race.
 
For his last work before the ARK Derby, I found it very telling that although Bode clearly needed the earnings to make it to Louisville, Bullet Bob seemed confident enough to back off a bit and just have Bode breeze comfortably behind a workmate all the way around the track.  Bode still caught his workmate in the last 100 feet or so, but again, it was another drill focused on getting this colt to learn to relax.  

Turned out to be all the right moves because Bode\'s cruising speed was all he needed to wire the weak field at Oaklawn (I say week because to my eye he didn\'t beat much).  Most importantly, Bode didn\'t get hot pre-race in front of a big, record setting crowd and he relaxed during the race even after a questionable break from an outside post.  He comfortably widened his margin at every call, and his last 1/8th was pretty special according to the clock and visually.  

But is he going to repeat that and get the 1 1/4?

No way to know for sure.  And even if he gets a front running trip in 47.8 112 it isn\'t going to help him if he is rank or leaves his race in the paddock.

Going to be a good Derby to bet I think.

[Silver Charm]

I dont have the charts from that yr. Just going by memory. So maybe I am losing mine.

I am getting the message and know when its time to leave the neighborhood.

[JR]

Does anybody else think Oaklawn was kind to speed on the day that Bode ran?

[sighthound]

The trainer is trying to train a horse.  The owner is trying to get publicity.

[sighthound]

\"The faster they run, the prettier they get\".

[sighthound]

Easy guys (grin) ...  I think the horse is exceptional, gifted, and has speed to burn, and is a quality, Grade 1 animal.

I don\'t think he\'ll get 1 1/4.  

And yes, I may very well have Derby Pie all over my face, as I\'ve already decided he won\'t be in any of my Derby superfectas, no matter his post or how he\'s training.

If so, it won\'t be the first time!  Just take my money from the pools and say, \"thanks\"

I would bet him to win the Preakness by 5.

[phil23]

Just watched the 04 Derby.  Smarty rating of Lion Heart till the turn, then going on.  Seems to me, the same thing could happen this year.  Without Trinniberg and given that TCI is not a front runner (just the race dynamics/bias last time), who else is the speed?  Maybe IHA.  But isn\'t that about it?  What is to stop Bodi from running a Smarty race?  Sitting off Hansen in perfect position?  And Bodi did rate perfectly well in the San Felipe, so it\'s not like he\'s shown he can\'t do it.


Something else about 2004 - the margin at the line was not a big as you\'d think.  Lion Heart was a very good horse.

Of course Smarty had more seasoning, but he was on short rest just like Bodi.  And Hansen...well if there\'s a more identical version of Lion Heart (front runner, but not cheap speed in the least) I haven\'t seen him.

Edit - Ok, just went back and looked at the figs from 04.  Without having this year\'s final figs, certainly Lion Heart had many more fast figs than Hansen, and Smarty, well we know about him, bar Tricky Dickie and Big Brown, as good as it gets.  And of course the track was a moat.  And not poly to dirt to worry about.  So not saying the comparison is perfect.  Just putting it out there

[jimbo66]

Thanks Jim.

It was a board hiatus, not a gambling hiatus (unfortunately

Agree with you that I think Take Charge Indy has a \"puncher\'s chance\" and will be on a few of my tickets (if I was betting today, which luckily I don\'t have to, my horizontal wagers would be something like 50% Union Rags, 30% Bodemeister, and 10% each on Take Charge Indy and Alpha)

It is an interesting time of the year, that is for sure.  Getting a little frustrated with the lack of information out there about the Oaks horses, as I love the Oaks-Derby double and also the Oaks-Early Times Classic-Derby pick-3.  Haven\'t seen the Baffert monster Princess Arabella\'s name mentioned, just a rumored sickness after the Sunland win.  Also haven\'t read whether either Eden\'s Moon or Reneesgotzip are gonig in the oaks (would toss both of them).  

I guess we will see that stuff in the next week or so.

Good luck,

Jim

[Tavasco]

Thank you Dr. Hansen for sending your beautiful horse to the Kentucky Derby.
It leads me to speculate;

In addition to the 10 horses who are not legitimate contenders anyway, Hansen\'s need to lead eliminates another half dozen who would just be commute traffic with a slower pace.

So when the race really starts, at the head of the stretch, on May 5 - I just need to figure out the order of 3-5 horses. Since even that is too difficult for me, I\'ll just go with what I see as the best value and a Scat Daddy exacta of 30/1 X 30/1 with the first ever Euro KY Derby Champion.

By the way if DLL galloped out in :12 in his last then he ran a mile and a quarter in a tic or two over 2:00. He didn\'t did he? I better check the TwinSpires race replay.

If Bodemeister runs off (snicker) the tickets might be worth more as collector memorabilia than pari-mutuel pay-offs.  He did look good though. Where will he be vs a Blue Tail.

[Topcat]

phil23 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just watched the 04 Derby.  Smarty rating of Lion
> Heart till the turn, then going on.  Seems to me,
> the same thing could happen this year.  Without
> Trinniberg and given that TCI is not a front
> runner (just the race dynamics/bias last time),
> who else is the speed?  Maybe IHA.  But isn\'t that
> about it?  What is to stop Bodi from running a
> Smarty race?  Sitting off Hansen in perfect
> position?  And Bodi did rate perfectly well in the
> San Felipe, so it\'s not like he\'s shown he can\'t
> do it.
>
>
> Something else about 2004 - the margin at the line
> was not a big as you\'d think.  Lion Heart was a
> very good horse.
>
> Of course Smarty had more seasoning, but he was on
> short rest just like Bodi.  And Hansen...well if
> there\'s a more identical version of Lion Heart
> (front runner, but not cheap speed in the least) I
> haven\'t seen him.
>
> Edit - Ok, just went back and looked at the figs
> from 04.  Without having this year\'s final figs,
> certainly Lion Heart had many more fast figs than
> Hansen, and Smarty, well we know about him, bar
> Tricky Dickie and Big Brown, as good as it gets.
> And of course the track was a moat.  And not poly
> to dirt to worry about.  So not saying the
> comparison is perfect.  Just putting it out there


That race was largely the product of the sealed racetrack engineered in the wake of the torrential rains, earlier in the day.   Don\'t think that race goes quite that way over a normal, cuppy Churchill strip.

[big18741]

The other two stalker/pace types in that field Limehouse and Read the Footnotes
were shuffled or checked before the first turn.

[Rick B.]

JR Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Does anybody else think Oaklawn was kind to speed
> on the day that Bode ran?

Shhh. Let those that are mesmerized by the Big Fig believe it was earned over a fair surface.

[Michael D.]

Baffert\'s most successful Derby horses did not come in off big tops. POTN came in off a 0.5 top, War Emblem a pair, Real Quiet a 0.5 top, and Silver Charm a pair. The closest thing to a big top and a good finish was Congaree, who ran off a 2.5 top and paired. All the other tops led to regressions. Here they are, most recent on top:

3.75 top - 4.5 back
2.25 top - 17 back
3 top - 5 back
8 top - 15 back
3 top - 12 back
6 top - 9 back
3.5 top - 1.75 back
4.5 top - 1.5 back
3.75 top - 1.5 back


We talked about Sinister Minister, but the other interesting Baffert runners from the \'06 Derby are Point Determined, who came in off a 3 point top, took good money, and backed up 5 points, and Bob and John, who also ran off a 3 point top and took action, and collapsed.

Bode might look a lot like Congaree, who ran off a 2.5 top on 3 weeks rest after the visually impressive 1:47.9 in the Wood. Congaree paired, and probably would have run faster had he not gotten sucked into the brutal pace. Baffert\'s best Derby performances, though, involved horses coming in off pairs or fractional moves.

[miff]

Does anybody else think Oaklawn was kind to speed on the day that Bode ran?

JR,

12 dirt races, 6 won by off the pace/closers types, the other 6 winners speed/up close types.

Two services scored the surface honest with one not liking the rail all along the backside.


Mike

[covelj70]

this is an awesome analysis, thank you so much for doing the work