Bodemeister

[Silver Charm]

>The Monarchos year there were 4 or 5 horses pressing a fast pace.


Jimbo that year thats how it went but it may not have looked that way on paper going in. Every race that day had been won on the front end in near Track Record time. The frontrunner in the Derby was Songandaprayer who went in about 8 and 3.

But that now gets back to your track condition point. Which I actually thought Borel won on the rail on Super Saver in slop two yrs back

Good news we will get to know Post Postion about 24 hours before we know the Track Condition and about 48 hrs before we know Track Bias.......

[MO]

I think Hansen IS rateable, has a win over the track and much more seasoning than Bode. If Bode stumbles out of the gate , Hansen goes wire to wire. If Bode wants the lead and gets it, Hansen will stalk him. Bode is gonna bounce in the Derby, and probably rebound at Pimlico.. The poly to dirt move also helps Hansen, who I believe bounced, probably to a 2. With the bounce out of the way, he pairs or runs a slightly faster number in Louisville. And he will be a price. In fact, I\'ll get close to 2-1 just to show...................

[Rich Curtis]

Silver Charm wrote:

\"Every race that day had been won on the front end in near Track Record time.\"

  You really ought to look this up, Silver Charm, and the same goes for 2006 Blue Grass day.

[sighthound]

Even getting the ideal trip, I can\'t see Hansen around after 8 1/2 furlongs.   He can\'t rate.  Bode can, plus can get the distance.  Baffert will rate him behind the rabbits (which includes Hansen).

[MO]

He gallopped out in front after the BG. He stays.

[alm]

I wrote this post to get the discussion going, not because I put these two in the same category.  So much of what we write here looks back on previous races and it\'s all pretty irrelevant. I am happy that the smartest guys on the site responded with lots of good thinking.

Personally, I don\'t care if Bodemeister got the fastest time of anyone coming into this race.  At this point I am more interested in who enters, what posts they get, and which horses I think are sitting on a jump forward.  There is much to think about.

I am almost certain that I will not be betting Baffert in this situation.  I am personally satisfied that he\'s regressed in his approach to the Derby and that he really wrung the lemon in Oaklawn.  I don\'t care if this horse rebounds and ever wins another race, but I don\'t think he will hit the board at Churchill, particularly if he draws outside of the others who have natural speed.

I am not a great user of TG sheets; I am too old fashioned.  Having said that I have taken a ton of knowledge away from them...in terms of understanding a horse\'s pattern of moving forward or backward.  I said it before about this Derby and I\'ll repeat it here...the animals looking to sit on a forward movement are Union Rags, Gemologist and Alpha.  They may be slower than Bodemeister on paper right now, but after the Derby I think one of them will be seen as being faster.

As for the posts about Hansen HAVING to go early, that speculation was answered in NY when he took back and looked professional doing it.  On the other hand, if they get parked outside he will have to be used too much himself.

Speculation on the effects of blooklines that will succeed also bothers me here, because it too is all backward looking.  I respect the facts put forward about some of these horses, but who would you rather bet in a foot race, Jesse Owens or his full brother?  (old joke)

And next year\'s great upcoming stallion isn\'t even known yet....Distorted Humor, Elusive Quality?

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

what\'s up buddy?

great to see your name up here again.

I took a bit of a hiatus myself but it\'s the best few weeks of the year so we are back!

I very much agree with your comment on Take Charge Indy.  He isn\'t a front running horse.  He just went to the lead in the Florida Derby because there wasn\'t any speed.  Ho doesn\'t have anywhere near the natural speed of Bode and Hansen.

In no way am I saying he can\'t win (I want to see all of the numbers first) but I am saying he won\'t be on the lead in this race.

[Silver Charm]

Rich here is the story on the Monarchos Derby. I was wrong about the 8 and 3. I guess what stuck in my mind was the 44 and 3 half as everyone was suicidal to get the lead thinking thats all you needed to do to win.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/4006/monarchos-wins-kentucky-derby

These are the fractions for Sinister. There is a big difference in half miles and they had to go another 1/8th in the Derby.

22.91, 45.88, and 1:09.94

There was a similar Derby Day track speed bias mentality the year when Alysheba won. Class always tells in the Derby. And Sinister Minister and Songandaprayer and Co. were not Spenda Buc

[Michael D.]

sighthound Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Even getting the ideal trip, I can\'t see Hansen
> around after 8 1/2 furlongs.   He can\'t rate.
> Bode can, plus can get the distance.  Baffert will
> rate him behind the rabbits (which includes
> Hansen).


tough crowd. the horse wins the toughest BC Juvy in history, the Gotham, and runs a strong 2nd in the Blue Grass, and gets relegated to \"rabbit\".

[HP]

Silver - you can\'t make your point without this?  

Class always tells in the Derby.

What does this mean?  No offense, but I just hate this kind of cliched stuff.  I don\'t know ANYONE who took Sinister Minister seriously and they didn\'t feel that way because of \"class.\"  If your point is that these horses couldn\'t carry their speed just say that.  Cliches diminish your good points.  

I\'m looking for good horse-specific points and one day when I have one I\'ll post it!  

Actually here\'s one that\'s kind of off the wall - for Hansen fans - do you find this tail dye-ing story disturbing?  I do!  If they are all wrapped up in this nonsense before their big Prep I have my doubts about these guys, even if they have the best horse.  

HP

[touchgold]

I dont think class told when giacomo won.

[HP]

You remind me that the horse who ran GREAT in there was Closing Argument.  The classier horses brought up the rear.  

HP

[Silver Charm]

It was something to the effect that Van Berg said after the race. To him the speed biased track was irrelevant and they didnt change the tactics they hd set that morning when he and McCarron met at the Barn.

I believe as the story goes even McCarron himself was nervous as he watched one speed horse after another wire the field in the earlier races. When they met in the Pre-Derby paddock and Van Berg gave him the leg up, the orders were the same. \"Stick with the Plan\"....And the rest as they say is history.

Touch Gold not trying to pick a fight but I believe the Giacomo yr Mike Tabor and Biaconne entered a crappy rabbit. Those like Bellamy Road who couldnt sufficiently rate and had to press and chase (put Afleet Alex in there also though he was game) go it to Giacomo. I will give Afleet Alex a pass. Class told with the others however.....

[Rich Curtis]

Silver Charm wrote:

\"I was wrong about the 8 and 3.\"

  You also said that every race that day was won on the front end, which is not even close to being true.

\"Class always tells in the Derby.\"

  I\'ll agree with this as long as we define \"class\" as \"what the Derby tells,\" but I don\'t see any use in it beyond that.

[HP]

Rich - Exactly.  HP