Suburban

[Michael D.]

thoughts?

I liked Frost Giant in the Skip Away H after his negative .25 first time dirt. fortunately, the horse opened up at 4/5, and went off as the big fave. saved some money as FG bounced pretty good. returns to dirt off two decent turf races, last better than it looked. nice timing here, gets in at 114 lbs, and the jock has nice ground stats.

a 1w/1w negative 1/4 could win this at the ml of 12-1.

[jbelfior]

Mike:

Oh, what of the days of Winter\'s Tale, Czaravich, Fit To Fight, Personal Flag, Forego, Loud, and Upper Nile.


Now we have the likes of AP Arrow, Frost Giant, and the great Hunting.


My call is Merchant Marine who had a \"workout\" on the 20th. Loves Belmont, improving 4 yo and makes one sweeping move to run his negative 1 1/2.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[fkach]

This is the kind of field Its Academic used to beat up on at AQU during the winter Grade 3 races years ago. Where\'s Kings Swan when you need him?  I can\'t believe how far this game has sunk.

[jimbo66]

Joe B,

I am guessing you didn\'t watch Merchant Marine\'s last race, if you are thinking it was a workout.  I had a pretty large bet on the horse he ran down.  MM was under pressure on the far turn, was all out through the entire stretch and got by very late.  

It would take really long odds for me to take that horse 8 days after that race.  

Michael,

Hate to force your horse (frost giant) to carry additional weight, but I like him as well.  Dirt seems like his best surface.  I think having RR up helps the price.  I have never been a fan of AP Arrow and am not going to start now after the Dubai trip.  I will also key Frost Giant at what I expect to be close to his morning line odds of 12-1.

Jim

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Joe B,
>
> I am guessing you didn\'t watch Merchant Marine\'s
> last race, if you are thinking it was a workout.
> I had a pretty large bet on the horse he ran down.
>  MM was under pressure on the far turn, was all
> out through the entire stretch and got by very
> late.  
>
> It would take really long odds for me to take that
> horse 8 days after that race.  
>
> Michael,
>
> Hate to force your horse (frost giant) to carry
> additional weight, but I like him as well.  Dirt
> seems like his best surface.  I think having RR up
> helps the price.  I have never been a fan of AP
> Arrow and am not going to start now after the
> Dubai trip.  I will also key Frost Giant at what I
> expect to be close to his morning line odds of
> 12-1.
>
> Jim


I think Merchant Marine will be a \'0\' type this year, but he got a pretty good trip last, and was used from about 5/16 out. I\'m predicting the jump comes later in the year.

not sure what to make of AP Arrow as the favorite. with a 3w trip under 118 lbs, he\'s probably going to need a negative \'1\' to win this, which is possible.


this Mother Goose field is a shame. running down Proud Spell in a 4 horse field is a lot to ask, but Music Note looks like she could be something special. I\'ll have MN in the pk\'s.

[jimbo66]

Michael,

31-1.  At least we got the right odds.

Solar Flare\'s negative 2.5 stands out, but it was the midlantic region and he adds lasix after a big performance.  Not sure that isn\'t a sign the race took a lot out of him.

Have to use him though.

[richiebee]

Jimbo/Michael:

WOW!

[Halo Fire]

Jimbo & Michael,

NICE WORK!

Are they kidding with the exacta? $265??

A general rule of thumb I\'ve always used is win x place, and in this case it\'s equal to $560!

That\'s not cool.

[BitPlayer]

Nice score guys!  Congrats.

[Michael D.]

I feel confident in calling this the overlay of the year.

the horse was a negative .25 first dirt, and ran the final 1/8 like he wanted more distance. Prado got sucked into a rabbit pace next, and the horse probably was going to bounce anyway. two nice turf tighteners, and BINGO!! didn\'t hurt that he\'s by Giants Causeway, and his 3rd dam is Dance Number, dam of Traver\'s winner Rhythm.

anyway, good hit Jim.

I had Music Note singled in the pk3, and crushed that as well.

[jimbo66]

THanks for the kind words.

It is never good sportsmanship to complain about prices, when you cash big, but let me say that the prices were interesting in the exacta and pick-3.

40-1 over 9-2 pays 260 instead of $500 in the exacta.

I can kind of believe that one, in that it is a two speed number.

But the late pick-3.

Beat the Oaks winner in the first race, get a 40-1 shot in the 2nd and then a 7-1 in the night cap.

Parlay is 1600+.  Payout is 729.

Ouch.

Tough game.  

p

[TGJB]

Bet the Suburban winner a little, but the last race (nose) winner gave me a significant piece of the pick 4 pool. Played FK flat in the pick 4s with 3 other horses, got the maximum result.

[Michael D.]

thanks Bit, richie ....  just when I was beginning to think this was all a waste of time!!

[flushedstraight]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> thanks Bit, richie ....  just when I was beginning
> to think this was all a waste of time!!


Waste of time???

No way!

Nice post and hit. You\'re too humble.

[TGAB]

Nice hit Michael, Jimbo and others.