Suburban

[jimbo66]

TGAB,

Warming up for opening weekend at the spa!

Are you having the Carolina Barbecues this year?

If so, did you guys decide who has opening weekend yet?

[TGAB]

We\'re planning to. We\'re getting organized right now. Will let you know details within a week or so. But I do believe JB will be there opening weekend; not sure who if anyone is joining him yet.

Hope you got a lot more double-digit winners in the grab bag.

[SJU5]

Good hit guys!

[high roller]

don\'t understand this post, len friedman gave the horse out as a key on their rotw, so after the fact you come on and brag that you hit it, do you keep the loses quiet?

if you liked a 40-1 shot why didn\'t you do that race as the rotw?

[smalltimer]

BIG DEAL.....
I\'ve hit the Suburban every year but 2 since 1902, and with a lot better ROI.


Just kidding, in case anyone misses Chuckles.

Nice hit guys!!!

[shanahan]

high roller Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> don\'t understand this post, len friedman gave the
> horse out as a key on their rotw, so after the
> fact you come on and brag that you hit it, do you
> keep the loses quiet?
>
> if you liked a 40-1 shot why didn\'t you do that
> race as the rotw?


Don\'t know about Friedman, but in looking at the analysis on TG Redboard room just now...the bet was #4 (larry jones\' horse), boxed with Naughty New Yorker...how do Jerry and boys take credit for that?  Michael D is the one who stuck this under our noses...nice handicapping MD!

[miff]

\"I bet on [Rising Moon], but what am I going to do?\" Dutrow said. \"I got to be happy.



....always wanted to be a bookmaker for owners, trainers and grooms(not certain clockers)


Mike

[jimbo66]

I would guess TGAB did the analysis, not TGJB, because the analysis didn\'t get any of the legs of the pick-4 right, let alone Frost Giant.  (no offense Allan!!!)

[BenevolentDictator]

If I am not mistaken, TG picked Frost Giant in the Skip Away.  So the horse must have been on their radar.

[APny]

I still can\'t believe we got 40-1 on that horse...exacta price and pik 3 were more like he went off his morning line odds..I guess one of the main ragozin guys gave out the horse...so some of their players may have sent it in when it came to the exotics.  I still can\'t believe we got 40-1!

[jimbo66]

You are right APNY, in that FG was more like 12-1 to 15-1 in the exotics, than 40-1, especially the multi-race bets.

[Michael D.]

Jim, looked to me like AP Arrow got a single win bet that distorted the pool. AP went from 5-2 to 8-5 in a single tick, while FG went from 16-1 to 26-1 at the same time. how big was the win pool?

[Silver Charm]

By the way guys nice score. These types may only came along once a summer.

Stellar Jayne from a few years back is one that comes to mind.

No Redboard bullsh!t from this bunch.

[TGJB]

Roller-- first of all, Len, Michael and Jimbo all liked FK more than I did.

I played the last 4 races at Belmont individualy, and as a pick 4, because they were betting a way-too-slow maiden winner in the first leg, and I thought I could beat the big favorite in the Mother Goose. If you beat those two you had to eliminate 90% of the tickets. I went 3 x 2 x 4 x 2.

In the seventh I boxed 3 horses, they ended up in the 4 horse blanket at the wire, I ran 1-2-4, got the exacta but not the tri. I used the winner half as much in pick 4s as the other two.

In the Mother Goose I boxed two, got put up into the exacta. I used the winner 3 times as much in pick 4s.

So now I get to the Suburban, where I used 4 horses, and played it flat. Since 3 of them were 9/2 or less and one was 40-1, it wasn\'t too hard to figure out to key FK. Within the race, I would have done just as well running second (or third, but not behind the one that ran third). It was strictly an odds play for me. But it made a huge difference for the pick 4.

I was live with the winner and third finisher of the last. I think I won that photo by an inch or less, for 20-25% of the pool (after takeout).

Two things-- first of all, as I\'ve said here before,in the short run photos have a huge impact on your results-- since everything is so leveraged in this game, going 7-3 vs. 3-7 is gigantic.

Secondly, it all evens out. I had been getting killed on photos for months. I could have lost the photo in the first leg (though I did have 3 of the 4), or the last, and FK didn\'t win by that much, which would have made a hell of a difference. But in one day I got back months of photos.

[fkach]

I doubt betting patterns were a significant factor in this case, but when some less sophisticated bettors key on a horse, they use the ALL button a lot.

As a result, longshots tend to get overbet in exotics with contenders because people will play \"their horse with ALL\" and \"ALL with their horse\" but not in proportion to the win odds. The 2nd place finsher was enough of a major contender to get bet that way.