Preakness......rubber meets the road

[spa]

The three best are going.....who will bounce?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Bounce may not play as much a role as traffic and fairness of the surface.

spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The three best are going.....who will bounce?

[spa]

Chuckles, you don\'t understand the game. Bounce is the factor...........

[ronwar]

It looks to me that the pace of this race is going to come up pretty fast, and may be very fast depending on the draw.  I will be playing both Curlin and Hard Spun for the regression that I did not get in the Derby...They better get Street Sense in this one, He\'s gonna be extremely tough at Belmont, especially if he can pair up at Pimlico

[MO]

2-1 Curlin is off the board.

[basket777]

a 3 year old pairing a -2 at this time of the year right   what planet do you live on.  we make our money on ones like this.

[P-Dub]

Bet against him at your own risk. Who\'s going to beat him??

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles, you don\'t understand the game. Bounce is
> the factor...........

Spa, regarding that contention, I did have a 2 year Derby drought, though now having won with Street Sense I have cashed the Derby 4 of the last 6 years. Since 2002 however, I have cashed every single Preakness run. Would you not agree that kind of record in the second leg of the Triple Crown indicates that the individual is one extremely lucky squirrel or that he knows something about bounce?

The first thing you have to factor when betting the bounce is whether the figure you\'re going to project bounce upon is as fast as indicated. In that regard Tgraph provides Wide and Time for you. But, they don\'t factor Not Going Wide and they don\'t factor path bias either.

One other observation. A trainer is like a handicapper. When a trainer is mentioned as Great, you not only Count his Derby wins, you count his Preakness and Belmont wins as well. Lukas for instance has Codex, Tank\'s Prospect, Tabasco Cat, Timber Country and Charismatic. If you accept Tgraphs Derby numbers at face value you have to conclude that Pletcher is skipping the race with four horses that by all appearances are not sitting upon traditional big race bounce efforts. My personal opinion is that those efforts were even a little less than what Tgraph has indicated, but thats grist for another debate. So is Pletcher avoiding the Preakness because of Bounce? or is Pletcher skipping the Preakness for any number of other reasons? Including a need to \"recharge\" horses that may now be blood tested?

[basket777]

first once we see the numbers then we will make a decision. second its just a race so it might just be a pass. but i will take my stand that ss will not pair up the -2

[RICH]

let\'s say he pairs the -2 and wins the race. Then we lie in wait.

[jmetro]

MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 2-1 Curlin is off the board.

With Albarado in the saddle I agree, jock change to say....Garrett Gomez and it\'s another story.

[MO]

I\'m basing my prediction on his figures. He\'s had 4 fast races in a relativly short time.

Doesn\'t matter to me who is aboard. Jocks don\'t win races. Horses do.

[spa]

TP,has started 19 in the Derby and 1 in the Preakness................TP will not effect this race. Who will bounce? Let\'s recall all those ROTW that we couldn\'t figure. That\'s why I say the rubber meets the road in the Preakness. We have another great betting race.

[fasteddie]

Curlin actually surprised me by running 3rd; he is a horse at great risk of being burned out by running him at Pimlico. They should back off of him now and get him ready for the Haskell. With D.Wayne starting First Class Flying, this could be a hot pace. If SS wins, he\'s going to win the Triple Crown!

[Uncle Buck]

I won\'t be playing the Preakness or the Belmont. SS is \"my\" horse and I can no longer find it reasonable to wager on him until the the BC Classic when he\'s 7-2 or 9-2 again. I would be a fool to give back one cent of the cash I made on the Derby...

Now its time to watch and root him on. I will hoever - bet a $2 win ticket on the Belmont if he\'s poised to break the drought...