derby

[spa]

This may be the greatest betting derby in history..............Curlin won\'t hit the board.

[Uncle Buck]

A lot of us here thought the same thing about Smarty. All those 0\'s and negative numbers heading into Churchill with a 100,000-plus crowd and a 20 horse field - surely he\'d bounce. The one glaring differnce is Smarty did race at 2.

I hate playing horses like Smarty Jones and Curlin. But with today\'s patterns, move up trainers and injections, you HAVE to include them in your wagers or you\'ll burn a lot of cash.

Take Saturday for instance. On thoropatterns and thoro numbers I saw at least 4 horses in the Ark Derby who were must plays at the odds. Got nothing - not even a sniff as Curlin\' drove away with my cash.

That said - My top pick has been Street Sense. I will key him ON TOP but now will have to shcedule some savors with AGS, GH, CURL, HS and perhaps CQ

[imallin]

Curlin is a great throwout. The Media is going to talk him up like he\'s the next Barbaro. Make him prove it at short odds in what is going to be an amazing betting race.

Look at it this way...There\'s only 1 Derby. There\'s only 1 race with 20 betting interests in America with the shot to get rich on a dollar box. Toss the chalk. You can bet a 3-1 shot any of the other 364 days of the year at any track in the country anytime you want. Don\'t \'waste\' this golden opportunity by chalking out.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Imallin,

Now that is the right attitude and take on the Derby.

Richiebee what are your thoughts about a Jesuit picking a Dominican?

NC Tony

[richiebee]

NCT:

You should get very playable odds on him.

I need to take a page from General Patton and ask you to use your considerable
influence with the man upstairs and pray for some good weather. I haven\'t been
on the golf course yet this year.

Yeah its a great betting race. What I have been thinking about tonight is
throwing out all the \"Jinx\" runners. Pletcher Jinx (Scat, Coaltown, Circular
and Any Given.. is there any one I missed?), BC Juvie Jinx (Street Sense) and
No 2YO race Jinx (Curlin). And I do not know the answer to the trivia question,
but maybe Tiago is \"Jinxed\" (have siblings ever won the Derby?).

Like you have said, you really have to wait to see who\'s in the gate and where
but I hate to say I\'m looking at 2 who won their last prep on poly: The Pa bred
Hard Spun and the Rug Warrior, Dominican. Nobiz could be 8- 10/1 and is
very bettable at that number.

The problem for me is that I want to play the Oaks Derby Double, and Pletcher\'s
Rags to Riches was bet like death and taxes in all 3 rounds of the Oaks Future
wager. All 3 of her lifetime wins have come at Santa Anita, the most recent of
which was a blowout in the SA Oaks at 2/5 in a 5 horse field. If you beat her,
almost any double should be lucrative. My problem is I haven\'t seen many of
these filies run; will have to go to the videotape.

[big18741]

richiebee Wrote:
---------------------------------
>
>
> Like you have said, you really have to wait to see
> who\'s in the gate and where
> but I hate to say I\'m looking at 2 who won their
> last prep on poly: The Pa bred
> Hard Spun and the Rug Warrior, Dominican. Nobiz
> could be 8- 10/1 and is
> very bettable at that number.
>
> The problem for me is that I want to play the Oaks
> Derby Double, and Pletcher\'s
> Rags to Riches was bet like death and taxes in all
> 3 rounds of the Oaks Future
> wager. All 3 of her lifetime wins have come at
> Santa Anita, the most recent of
> which was a blowout in the SA Oaks at 2/5 in a 5
> horse field. If you beat her,
> almost any double should be lucrative. My problem
> is I haven\'t seen many of
> these filies run; will have to go to the
> videotape.


Richiebee

Take a look at Sealy Hill another rug runner.Her Bourbonette was solid on the same day that Hard Spun and Dominican won over the Turfway poly.Nice turn move and she was able to hang on against Panty Raid another Pletcher.I grabbed 40-1 in the last Oaks pool.

Hard Spun has a nice looking graph,but that Lanes End was a perfect trip stalking Starbase and Bullara who offered no resistance on the turn.Will have to pass better horses on the front end and then hold off some real runners in behind.Tall order and Larry Jones is a brutal 5% at CD.

Dominican sprouts wings when he gets out in the clear.An honest pace will only help.His CD #\'s from last year weren\'t bad.I think he\'ll be fine on dirt.Trip and traffic-he\'ll need to get lucky.Look for the pink silks.

I\'m leaning to AGS getting the jump off the turn,but Dominican could be a bear.

[Ill-bred]

spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This may be the greatest betting derby in
> history..............Curlin won\'t hit the board.


Are you saying he\'s a lock to bounce or he isn\'t fast enough?

I\'ve never seen a year where the Beyer figures differ so much from The Sheets and TG.

[miff]

Ill Bred,

Noticed the same thing, it\'s ground loss/weight. When I did the conversions, it was glaring. Most of the time the conversions, scale to scale, are fairly tight(meaning the fig makers mainly agree)If you look at the Derby runners involved you will mainly see the wide runners showing much faster TG/Rags figs than Beyer on this occasion.That is not always the case as some would think.

It is seldom that I have seen a very fast RAG fig that was not \"loaded\" with ground loss(I call that a phoney wide fig when conditions suit).TG does not do that as much.


Mike

[spa]

Curlin is the greatest bounce play of all time.Todd P\'s posse wrecking the race. 20 plus horses,tearing out of the gate going into the first turn. Lord it can\'t get much better than this.......

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

After a cursory look, the Arkansas Derby looked fast and Curlin seemed to win in hand. Have great trouble believing it only scored a 103 on Beyer and have no idea what TGraph scored it. If its about a negative 1 how could you possibly consider Curlin a toss?

Dominican has looked like a plausible racehorse on Poly. However on Dirt he has been less than stellar. If theres an extremely hot Derby pace and/or he catches the right part of Churchill\'s lanes, he could potentially catch some of the board. (The right lane has been very important the last two years.) Believing his Bluegrass effort was a fairly good effort theres just no reason to believe he will be nearly as effective upon a traditional surface. He couldn\'t get within 6 of Any Given Saturday in November. If he\'s outdistanced that one since then, I sure can\'t discern it.

Its gonna be a fun one. Theres some good horses in there and a couple with big big chances at big big odds.



imallin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Curlin is a great throwout. The Media is going to
> talk him up like he\'s the next Barbaro. Make him
> prove it at short odds in what is going to be an
> amazing betting race.
>
> Look at it this way...There\'s only 1 Derby.
> There\'s only 1 race with 20 betting interests in
> America with the shot to get rich on a dollar box.
> Toss the chalk. You can bet a 3-1 shot any of the
> other 364 days of the year at any track in the
> country anytime you want. Don\'t \'waste\' this
> golden opportunity by chalking out.

[big18741]

Equipment change for Dominican in February.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Gelded...

Well, nothing against a Gelding in the Derby, They said Funny Cide couldn\'t win it. But not nearly as big a believer upon the Geld being decisive. The horse was on a progressive line pre Geld. His first Geld race it looks like he may have improved marginally, but the improve was consistent with an overall positive trend. Tgraph is apparently going to discount the race on slow pace and pad Dominicans figure on wide. I disagree with both of those adjustments. Think he ran about a 2.5 or so, but he ran it on the surface he runs best upon. Even if he runs a 2.5 Derby it won\'t be nearly good enough. Don\'t see his Derby going faster on his pedigree either.
 
http://www.pedigreequery.com/dominican4

This is beginning to get exciting isn\'t it?

lol
 

big18741 Wrote:


-------------------------------------------------------
> Equipment change for Dominican in February.

[flushedstraight]

Chuck

Why do you have Dom dirt negative, poly positive? Sure his only win at 2 was on Poly but the TGs show a way different story. Check the Rushaway in the ROTW archives. He\'ll probably be dismissed by most as poly specialist, creating some value.

[Uncle Buck]

spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Curlin is the greatest bounce play of all
> time.Todd P\'s posse wrecking the race. 20 plus
> horses,tearing out of the gate going into the
> first turn. Lord it can\'t get much better than
> this.......

An even bigger bounce play than Keats? That one stopped so bad he damn near killed the five horses behind him. Ask Pat Day about that race...

[miff]

Whats the difference, he\'s not that fast on dirt or poly and had two near perfect trips. Two back though, he had to wait to move in the stretch after a perfect inside trip.


Mike