derby

[Ill-bred]

Of the horses that figure to take some action, Hard Spun is my only trifecta toss right now.

Leaning toward Scat Daddy on top and wheeling him underneath. Still percolating though...

[miff]

ILL,

Is your knock on Hard Spun because he skipped an intended prep or otherwise?  HS and CQ are the only two that I think skipped a prep race they originally intended to go in.


Mike

[SoCalMan2]

fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"What we don\'t know is how he (Curlin) will
> respond to tougher internal fractions, classier
> horses, and the extra 1/4.\"
>
> I agree.
>
> I tend to toss these lightly raced promising
> horses that haven\'t beaten anybody when they show
> up in the Derby. I think racing in a very tough
> and deep 20 horse field with a large noisy crowd
> exposes a lot of seasoning issues.
>

Air Forbes Won (1982), Private Terms (1988), and Indian Charlie (1998) are all good examples of what you are talking about.  All three were heavily bet favorites that were wise bet againsts (although Indian Charlie did get a piece of the trifecta).

> All that said, this does not look to be an
> especially tough group even though they are fairly
> consistent and there are a lot of horses with
> similar ability. If a horse like Curlin is ever
> going to get the job done, this might be the year.
>

Curlin, Circular Quay, and Street Sense have already run negative figures.  Scat Daddy and Any Given Saturday have already run zeros.  Having 5 colts that have already run a zero or better is pretty impressive in April -- I think these horses would be strong candidates in most Derbies.  What\'s more, with the exception of Curlin, none of these horses is a bounce candidate.  In fact, I think all three of Pletcher\'s top horses are coming into the race with very nice patterns.  

I suspect that the training community has taken a collective lesson from Zito\'s experience with Bellamy Road and Baffert\'s experience with Sinister Minister.  Even if it has been true in the past that horses have generally not run new tops in the Derby, I would not be surprised to see some of the top contenders running new tops this year.  As is evidenced by the discussion on this board, we are all in a new environment now. A lot of the top figure horses are coming into the race with patterns that suggest very strongly that a pair up is the worst they will do.

[Ill-bred]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ILL,
>
> Is your knock on Hard Spun because he skipped an
> intended prep or otherwise?  HS and CQ are the
> only two that I think skipped a prep race they
> originally intended to go in.
>
>
> Mike


I will use CQ underneath only. His deep closer running style will require many things to go right for him. I\'m not sold on the pedigree for 10 furlongs (his dam was a one-turn horse), and the 8-week layoff is less than ideal, even for a trainer who does great work off the bench. I think he\'s one of 6 or 7 who could win, but there are enough questions for me to downgrade him to underneath only.

Hard Spun, I believe will be best on turf or polytrack, and he is stepping up in class here and facing faster. I love Danzig, but I have to make this one beat me if the public bets him. A neat horse though...

[flushedstraight]

Hard Spun closed at 13-1 in KDFW pool 3.

I\'m guessing that a decent chunk of that $ on him came from those loyalists that saw something special in the Lecompte and stayed on the bandwagon through the (successful?) experiment in the Southwest loss and through the non-traditional poly road to the derby. In the much larger derby day pools with much more public money, the loyalists would have a smaller impact and odds will be longer if my assumption is correct.

This is a Pa bred with excellent low profile connections that probably won\'t get the media attention deserved. His poly race was flawless but hasn\'t generated much hype. Considering they didn\'t let him run his race at Oaklawn, his last true dirt race was over 3 months ago; there\'s no telling where he is right now. Unless the race collapses as it sometimes does, he\'s likely to create his own racing luck with no worries about traffic & such.... Pino will have him effortlessy cruising in the right spot with his hand on the go switch assuming he doesn\'t get an awful starting post.

Not drinking the kool-aid yet, but this is one of the ones where the toteboard could dictate using as a key with no regrets.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

fkach, you\'ll earn large respect points agreeing with me.

Seriously though, even Baffert said Pre Derby that Sinister laid his body down in that race. I heard it but had to bet the fastest horse anyway. It was a little bit of a buck the bounce flyer and I did not get as good of odds as I should have. Adding insult to injury I talked the horse up pretty good and ate a lot of crow. I still think it was a helluva Bluegrass.

Regarding Bellamy\'s Wood there were some very fast races on that card besides Road\'s 1.47 Wood.

Valiant Warrior Lost in the Fog ran on that card and ran his gutsey per usual game race.

The faster horses were Medalist, Forest Danger and Don Six. Medalist never ran again. Forest Danger was never effective again and Don Six never reached back to this good figures post Wood. (TGraph, check me upon that last statement.) Bottom line is that track was so fast and hard it used up some pretty good horses. Bellamy included, but his fast race was not a standout. In his race there were slipped saddles, cheap horses and horses off form. At least that has been my opinion. I\'d like to say I beat Bellamy Road and cashed, but I never did. My horse finished 3rd that Derby and although I had the Travers winner selected, I passed the Race. Hate to bet upon Pletcher. Anyone can do that.

I do believe the hard Aqueduct track contributed to Road\'s demise.

CtC

-------------------------------------------------------
> I agree with your view on both Sinister Minister
> and Bellamy Road.
>
> Even though the old Keeneland often produced very
> fast races by speed horses that were not
> duplicated, the track was very honest the day SM
> blew them out. It was a once in the lifetime giant
> effort.
>
> The same can not be said of the day Bellamy Road
> won the Wood. BR ran fast, but not as well as he
> ran fast. ;-)

[marcus]

Scat Daddy has come back around and looks like the \"pattern of the week\" horse to me  . I\'d be curious to know how close Street Sense got to his best figure last time ,  becouse he\'s another one - like \'Scat , that hung in there after big 2 yo efforts ...

[Ill-bred]

It\'s not just the pattern with Scat Daddy. I went back and watched his races, and there are some very nice efforts in there. (I really didn\'t like him as a juvenile for some reason.)

Part of me still says Street Sense is gonna win by three lengths, but if Scat Daddy is 10-to-1 or more, I\'ll key him up and down in the tri and bet something to win on him.

[marcus]

excellent point - both have also fared well under a variety of circumstances and by their action have looked impressive  visually + seemed to have really put it  together . imo - joe got even comes to mind when thinking about healthy looking stride + pattern , he\'s a little slow right now , but that could change by days end . liquidity and reporting for duty round out my derby top 5 ...

[davidrex]

Hard Spun has the best overall pattern and spacing.
Never regressed or moved too far forward.

Curlin #s lay over this field,but 3 races in 7 weeks might create a mortal attempt.

AGS/SS both look  tough but one hoss is cursed,the other is running 4th time in a little over 2 months.

Soaring By is my Bud longshot to hit the board.
3 1/2 first out on 4th of July!,tops his only 2yr # by 1/2 point first asking as 3yr old(I\'m sheet educated),next is a pencil-out and last was just a tune-up.

                                        Shuffle up and deal

[spa]

Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday will run big time..............

[jimbo66]

Davidrex,

I would give you 10-1 on Soaring By even runnning in the Derby, let alone winning it.

Did you catch his race yesterday?  Never picked up his feet much.

[davidrex]

Jimbo...didn\'t realize he ran....I only use Browns\' w/no interruptions or interference from outside factors.

    Will go to video re-runs next week and will scan for the next Tarzan amongst the group...and what a big group it is!!

   I use CalRacing.com for all but Churchill assoc....then I must make a wager thru brisbet bsfore they let me use their \"restroom\".

    Anything else out there that doesn\'t incorporate \"pay toilets\"?(how bout that phrase Marcus!)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Unfortunately Jimbo, we are dealing with \"Maximum Trainer\" and his ego. He has brought a number off off pace horses to the Derby this year and will probably run Deadly Dealer since that one just picked up 100,000 in the Arkansas Derby for finishing 3rd in a 1 million dollar race. Deadly Dealer has as much chance as Keyed Entry. If Soaring By has the earnings he will be in. We are talking about Maximum Trainer and his Maximum Vet. I don\'t think he\'s got the earnings though.

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Davidrex,
>
> I would give you 10-1 on Soaring By even runnning
> in the Derby, let alone winning it.
>
> Did you catch his race yesterday?  Never picked up
> his feet much.

[jimbo66]

Chuckles,

Agree on the ego, but i am suspecting that since this is Dogwood stable, Cot Campbell and others will have input on that decision.  He (campbell) said on TV before the awful race that even if he won, he was unlikely to go to the Derby (although he admitted he MIGHT get Derby fever).

Let\'s hope that a perfect trip, middle of the pack finish, against inferior horses, is not a recipe for Derby fever.  There are other live longshots to at least fill out the superfecta, who are down the bottom of the earnings list.