derby

[marcus]

was just looking at \'06 final ky derby numbers and reading what you guys are saying and bouncing , maybe a couple similarities to last year  , imo - although he was an 02X going in ,  keyed entry kind of resembles curlin - if you forget the lone 2 yo race ,   also interesting to note ,  sinister minister bounced 15 pts  ...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The Rushaway was Poly-Scam, he did get credit for a TGraph 4 abouts in his last Churchill start. Apparently Wide was bona fide wide that day. He was still beaten 4 lengths by Zanjero.

FYI I picked Sinister Minister last year. I could certainly be wrong. Its just my very strong opinion that this horse relishes poly. He gets beat by daylight plus on dirt and wins on poly. Last year, pre geld, he was close to the pace in his poly Keeneland race. The truth is he\'s always run fairly close to the pace. (but for slop), Which indicates hes got a bit more speed than given credit for and that the pace in the Bluegrass was more legitimate than generally thought, but I don\'t think hes near the same horse off poly-scam.

He\'s obviously not a bad horse. Just don\'t think he\'s gonna measure up when the going gets as tough as its gonna get.

flushedstraight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck
>
> Why do you have Dom dirt negative, poly positive?
> Sure his only win at 2 was on Poly but the TGs
> show a way different story. Check the Rushaway in
> the ROTW archives. He\'ll probably be dismissed by
> most as poly specialist, creating some value.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Ctc,

Dominican has improved since the ridgling became a gelding. His race at churchill behind AGS and Tiz wnderfule was actually quite good but prior to the procedure.

I think you all best  consider these facts in addition to the RUG connotation, cause as we know we have seen horses jump up from Rug to dirt before.

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Why do you care what this clown thinks, and who has as poor of a history of winners as does Beyer?

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Mike,

You see races through poly colored glasses.

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Tony as for my picks in the Derby, I\'ll post them again, but not right now. Having bet the race since 1988, I\'ve won six Derbies and finished second in about as many. I think thats a pretty good record, though it should be better. To my knowledge Beyer has never won a Derby.

I still think I bet the best horse in the Derby last year, Sinister Minister, but its seems apparent at this point hes never going to come back to that race. TGraph has a theory that really big efforts can undo a horse and that may have been Sinisters fate. TGraph will probably hold to that belief with Bellamy Road. That is that the big Wood undid him. I believe in the Big Race stress factor, but sometimes disagree with how big a race is. Sinisters Bluegrass was clearly big, but I\'ve never completely dismissed part of it was horse for course big. Which brings us to the current issue.

Was Dominican\'s Bluegrass win really a big win and was is run over a formful surface?

Ironically, it was run at the very same track. Which by all appearances now has as big, or an even bigger horse for course bias.

Dominican vs. Teuflesberg...head to head?

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ctc,
>
> Dominican has improved since the ridgling became a
> gelding. His race at churchill behind AGS and Tiz
> wnderfule was actually quite good but prior to the
> procedure.
>
> I think you all best  consider these facts in
> addition to the RUG connotation, cause as we know
> we have seen horses jump up from Rug to dirt
> before.
>
> NC Tony

[fasteddie]

Curlin is just the kind of a favorite to wreck this this race; visually impressive, but unraced at 2 bothers me. I\'m driving the Great Hunter bandwagon and I\'m sticking to him. Have we all forgotten about Circular Quay??

[NoCarolinaTony]

Ctc,

Are you proposing a wager?

NC Tony

[Silver Charm]

Tony he will tell you who he had around 7:30 PM on Saturday on the first Saturday in May.

He does it every year.........

[Flighted Iron]

No Eddie.Some of us have not forgotten CQ.It\'s quite possible CQ has run the
fastest TG# for a 3 year old male so far.I\'m sticking to him and his 8 week
layoff.Yes,he hasn\'t gone past 8 1/2 furlongs,but so what!Everything about
this horse suggests distance will not be an issue.Coming from so far back through
traffic is the only concern I have.Hopefully a Pleasant Colony trip is in the
works.
                    farewell

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

lol

You KNOW thats not true.

I\'ve already said too much.

Let the best horse win. FOR ONCE...and let him have ODDS!...lol

CtC

[fkach]

I agree with your view on both Sinister Minister and Bellamy Road.

Even though the old Keeneland often produced very fast races by speed horses that were not duplicated, the track was very honest the day SM blew them out. It was a once in the lifetime giant effort.

The same can not be said of the day Bellamy Road won the Wood. BR ran fast, but not as well as he ran fast. ;-)

[spa]

First,is Curlin for real? Yes,but not for the derby. Second,he\'s going to be pounded in the pools. Third,we\'ll end up with all the money.

[Ill-bred]

I see Curlin as a horse who made a dynamic debut and has moved gradually forward in his next two.

He\'s made gradual improvements on the figs (generally speaking, I haven\'t seen them all) as he successfully stretches out to two turns and then further to 1 1/8 miles, while also showing he can rate.

What we don\'t know is how he will respond to tougher internal fractions, classier horses, and the extra 1/4.

Right now I feel he\'s no value at 3-to-1 but I respect him. Anybody know what vetted wrong when he sold as a yearling?

[fkach]

\"What we don\'t know is how he (Curlin) will respond to tougher internal fractions, classier horses, and the extra 1/4.\"

I agree.

I tend to toss these lightly raced promising horses that haven\'t beaten anybody when they show up in the Derby. I think racing in a very tough and deep 20 horse field with a large noisy crowd exposes a lot of seasoning issues.

All that said, this does not look to be an especially tough group even though they are fairly consistent and there are a lot of horses with similar ability. If a horse like Curlin is ever going to get the job done, this might be the year.

I wouldn\'t take a short price, but I\'m not anxious to bet against him either.