Gotham

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Really nice ROTW selection this week. Too many St. Paddy\'s drinks to comment yet. Theres the top three but a couple of the others dont look half bad on Tfigs.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Interesting Race

You can\'t help but notice the abundance of Early Speed in the race. Early Speed generally plays well at Aqueduct, but this race is loaded with it. Additionally, the track did seem to play fairly Friday.

Who wants the lead?

Keyed Entry?
One Way Flight?
Sweet Northern Saint?
Like Now?
Achilles of Troy?

Hesanoldsalt - Probably didn\'t handle Tampa, but also faced better horses there. Trained well at Gulfstream, so Zito decided to ship him to a new track and run him unworked there against the best horses he\'s faced yet. Does that make sense to anybody?

Church Service - Has the right running style for this race and that may get him closer than he looks on Speed. He\'s also run a little better on Dirt than Turf and he ran his best Turf race last, so have to expect a better Dirt effort now. He\'s got an improving horses chance to catch the remote exotics, especially if there is a pace melt down.

Eagle Head - Like the last race, but don\'t like him getting caught late and stretching to turn turns on a new track off it.

Like Now - Whats not to like? Other than the fact he runs on the lead and theres very quick horses here. Like the TFigs, like the trainer, like the consistency, like him on the track, like his breeding to stretch to this distance. Just don\'t like the pace scenario he finds himself in. Still will include him beyond 2nd.

Putonyerdancinshuz - Figs say he can\'t win. However, heres another horse that doesn\'t get discouraged running from behind, trained by a high percentage trainer. You can\'t bet them all and I\'m probably gonna let this one beat me, but I\'m very scared of him.

Achilles of Troy - They say hes got a new trainer. Not sure if thats true or not. He likes the track. He has shown an ability to run a paced race and in this race that appears to be important. He\'s been an exceptional horse since adding Lasix. He\'s obviously very dangerous and who the public favors between him and Keyed Entry is your guess. They may favor Pletcher.

Keyed Entry - Gulfstream was very freaky Hutchenson day. 1st Samurai is also a good horse, but he\'s not that good. Sense is that Keyed Entry, despite the two turns, may indeed have a Speed Pop chance here. But have to conclude the questions from that race, the plethora of speed and the two turns would make him a public choice to buck.

Sunshine Alpine - If you like \"Like Now\" you have to like this horse.

Greeley\'s Legacy - Weight Off, Likes the strip, likes the distance, the White Mercedes factor. What to do?

Sweetnorthernsaint - Has been handled in an \"interesting\" manner, but the trainer is on fire and won\'t quibble. Worst thing you can say is they put Desormeaux up. Anyone else notice the split DRF variant from January 7th?

One Way Flight - Well Channing Hill did WIN 3 races yesterday. I really liked this horse for the exotics but am distraught over Hill being up in this race with this hole. What are they thinking?

[tmon]

A question about Keyed Entry. You show a pattern of Top-Top-Top. Why would a race that occurs over 6 months before the next race be a part of a pattern? Also it was his first which automatically make it a new top. Now SUNSHINE ALPINE shows the same pattern but with him it makes sense since their is no major break between races.

[spa]

Chuckles...you forgot the Overview.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'m waiting for the odds.

Pletcher has to be respected and if he\'s second choice there may be some minimal edge in playing him.

Achilles of Troy does have a slight pace advantage.

I also believe Sweetnorthernsaint is faster than hes shown.

I was going to put those three on top of One Way Flight in Perfectas but with Hill up I\'m not sure. It will depend upon odds.

This is a competitive race. I wont red board though, will chime in pre race if I make a selection

Poster JohnTChance has many times called the White Mercedes connection post race and here we have it. The more I look at Greeley\'s the better that last race looks. Mercedes also appears to have Keyed Entry and One Way Flight.

[richiebee]

Ctc:

    According to NYRA website One Way Flight is SCRATCHED.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ctc:
>
>     According to NYRA website One Way Flight is
> SCRATCHED.

thx, that outside post was a tough assignment.

Little less speed now, that was a quick horse.

Theres still speed, but the field lacks the proven closer you look for in a race like that.

Hesanoldsalt, Greeley\'s legacy, and Putyerdancinshuzon all have big ?

[richiebee]

The only colt in here I see moving to the next round of the \"tournament\" is Pletcher\'s Keyed Entry. I think both Achilles and Greeley can run well today, but will progress no further after the magic carpet -- the inner dirt-- is yanked out from underneath them.

I disagree with the possibility of a KE speed pop. KE has broken slowly in 2 of his 3 races, and think Prado will try to restrain KE off the early pace of Like Now and Sweet Northern Saint. How KE reacts to rating tactics if this is the case will be interesting to see.

Would have to think KE and Achilles are very close in the wagering.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The only colt in here I see moving to the next
> round of the \"tournament\" is Pletcher\'s Keyed
> Entry. I think both Achilles and Greeley can run
> well today, but will progress no further after the
> magic carpet -- the inner dirt-- is yanked out
> from underneath them.
>
> I disagree with the possibility of a KE speed pop.
> KE has broken slowly in 2 of his 3 races, and
> think Prado will try to restrain KE off the early
> pace of Like Now and Sweet Northern Saint. How KE
> reacts to rating tactics if this is the case will
> be interesting to see.
>
> Would have to think KE and Achilles are very close
> in the wagering.

Respect your opinion. I\'m not certain who will move on from here and who won\'t. The challenge for me today is to get into sniffing range on this race.

I\'m not sure I share your sentiments about Keyed Entry\'s likely pace scenario. His past performances say July precocious and on the lead at every call at 3. I\'ll be very surprised if they don\'t attempt to use that speed to position for the first turn. If he\'s not right on the lead, right off, I\'d be very worried if I was holding tickets on him. His preferred running style is clear. Theres also some suspicion regarding his soundness. Its a long way from July to January to pass early developing races with a Honor and Glory.

If on the other hand this is Pletcher\'s best Derby hopeful, (and i have no knowledge of that), they may try to play pace altering games with him today. I like his backside breeding. It goes a long way to cover some of the frontside holes. Then theres the White Mercedes issue.  

Sweetnorthernsaint is a nicely bred horse and he is quick. I certainly can\'t rule him out of the tourney pre race. Truth is I\'m beginning to favor him. He\'s not let a horse in front of him since the Turf start. I\'m not sure he can outpace Keyed Entry though and Achilles of Troy should be in a spot to make a run on the pace setters.
 

Its a dilly.

Well, minor play with SNS gonna have Hesold and Greeleys in second too. We\'ll learn a lot from this race.

[Michael D.]

a few thoughts ....

i wasn\'t smart enough to come up with this one. as TGJB pointed out, LN had some distance breeding on both sides, but you had to predict that he would break loose on a comfortable lead - too tough for me.

johnny velazquez off is a killer angle. i don\'t care who the replacement is.

SNS ran great under tough circumstances. he has a big heart.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Didn\'t foresee Like Now getting that kind of pace deferral. Things happen and I wasn\'t going to win anyway.

Richie was correct. They did minimally \"rate\" Keyed Entry. Probably rated him right out of the winners circle. As far as him going on, we\'ll see. There were no bona fide one run horses in there.

Thought SNS ran a useful race too. Not a bad effort.

Maybe they need to hire Pederson back.

[richiebee]

Not surprised that KE was not asked for early speed, but a burst of tactical speed would have been nice to get a little closer to the winner on the backstretch.

Like Now is not nominated for Triple Crown. Keyed Entry showed another dimension and added to his graded earnings. Sweet Northern Saint seemed to run hard and wide throughout and may have had more left at the end than the top 2 finishers.

[TGJB]

According to Equibase, Achilles was vanned off. The fallout from this should be interesting...

[Ron G.]

Owner said Achilles grabbed a quarter pretty bad out of the gate, we will see if it is true.

[bobphilo]

I thought something was wrong with Acilles.
Like Now figured to be the one to pick up the pieces if the top 3 faltered. He got a dream trip with an easy lead on the rail with Keyed Entry 2 wide on both turns and Sweetnorthernsaint 3 wide both turns and Achilles fizzling. Best race by far was SNS. KE picked up some respect too.

Bob