Wind Adjustments?

[Mall]

I would appreciate some clarification, since the statements on this topic left me a little confused:

(1) I take it from the statement that \"small changes mean a lot when there is a long straightaway\" that the distance from the gate to the turn is one of the variables in the wind adjustment formula. Assuming that\'s the case, is it correct to conclude that the wind adjustment for the Distaff was significantly greater than it was for the Juvenile Fillies?

(2) Reading between the lines, I\'m guessing that the wind adjustment formula is something which is applied to the final figure of the winner, so that the adjustments for all of the horses who finish behind the winner are based on their fixed realtionships vis a vis the winner. Put another way,is it correct that for the Distaff the wind adjustment affected PH\'s number, & for the rest of the horses, including for example Capeside Lady, the adjustment was based on a fixed relationship with PH?

(3) The formula was described as an \"estimate based on looking at the average effect of wind over lots of races.\" Can one assume from this that the races used to derive the formula took place at a variety of different tracks, & that the same formula is now being used for all tracks?

(4) I take it that wind speed & distance to the turn are variables in the formula. Is wind direction also a variable? Are there others?

(5) Finally, how much of an impact did the wind adjustment formula have on the BC nos.?

6)  In harness racing, handicappers are very aware that being \"covered up\"  (drafting) is a better trip than running exposed to the wind. I doubt it\'s as significant in thoroughbred racing as harness racing (no sulky). I also doubt it can be measured accurately. However....

Is it considered as a factor in the race results and thus the variant making process?

[TGJB]

Mall--

1- The small changes I was talking about were in wind speed and direction, not footage. Small changes in footage don\'t make a big difference. But when you are talking about a run of more than half a mile down a straightaway to a turn, as for those BC routes, that\'s a LOT of footage,

2-- The wind adjustment is reflected in the figure for the race itself-- where a 1:10 might be a 7 based purely on track speed, it might now be a 6. All the horses (including the winner) that ran under those conditions (that race) are then adjusted for their VARYING conditions (weight, ground), and beaten lengths. The rundown I see reflects all this.

3-- Ragozin and I started in the same place with a wind formula, which was to have someone do it on paper (in my case a friend who is a meteorologist). In theory, there is a square involved in the formula, which makes the effect of higher winds on final time very dramatic-- the impact of a 10 mph wind is not doubled at 20mph, it\'s 4 times as great (10 squared is 100, 20 squared 400). What we found in practice was that if you used that formula as is, the effect of wind was too high-- so we worked with it until we came up with a reduced percentage of the theoretical effect that is roughly correct. I couldn\'t even tell you what it is-- it\'s in the computer.

Ragozin, from what I have been told, went through exactly the same process, and also reduced the theoretical effect to make it usable-- don\'t know whether he uses exactly the same thing or not. But here\'s a key point-- WE DO THIS BY LOOKING AT THE FIGURES OF THE HORSES. Whether it is me, or Len, or anyone else, the way you know it\'s right is by looking at what effect it is having on the figures you are giving out-- which means that ultimately there is a subjective element in it.

Which means in turn that when you APPLY that formula in practice, you have to remember that. As you look at an individual race, you should make small adjustments if necessary (to the race as a whole, not individual horses), SINCE THAT IS EXACTLY THE SAME PROCESS YOU USED TO COME UP WITH THE FORMULA TO BEGIN WITH. It isn\'t pure science, and it doesn\'t come from God, or from a textbook-- that didn\'t work, we tried it.

So it\'s right to make adjustments, and that would be true even if the wind data we were using was perfect. It is not-- wind readings are estimates by trackmen taken before and after a race (they are watching the race while it is running), and wind changes speed and direction moment to moment. (I would also point out that back in the days when Ragozin was claiming quarter point accuracy-- meaning before this website existed-- he was using hourly readings from airports that were miles from the tracks).

And then there is the issue of the track being right next to a really big structure-- the grandstand. One of the great examples takes place at Aqueduct, so Miff, since you are out there every day, I\'m going you to ask you to give us a report later in the week. Give us a count of how many times you see the two infield flags, which are a couple of hundred yards apart, pointing AT each other during the running of a race. It happens when the wind comes from behind the grandstand, and sucks in around the building-- same principle as an airplane wing (I think).

4-- Yes, yes, and yes, see above. We build the straightaway and turn distances into our computer model, then input wind speed and direction for the race in question. It spits out an adjusted final figure for the race.

5-- If we can, I\'ll have someone run the day later without wind and tell you the effect it had on each race on BC day-- keeping in mind that it will be an approximation.

[TGJB]

CH-- it undoubtedly has less of an effect in flat racing both for the reasons you mentioned, and because harness horses stay in set lanes for long periods of the race, where thoroughbreds do not. Regardless, we can\'t measure it.

[miff]

Jerry,

For the first 7 races at AQU today all the flags(including the small ones)were lightly blowing \"with\" the horses on the backside whenever I looked.
I have seen what you noted about the flags pointing at each other and if I\'m not mistaken, it\'s more prevalent during the winter/inner tube meet.I\'ll try to remember to look at the flags next week.

On the RAGS BC figs,there must be a Rags customer who posts here and can get the figs of at least the winners.

The Beyers were:

Folklore 87

Stevie WB 104

Silver Train 114

PL Home 107

ST Liam 112

Schricco 114

Intercon. 107

Artie S. 110

[msola1]

Class,

My experience as a road racer tells me that drafting is indeed as important to horses as it is to humans. Racing into a wind is made far easier if you tuck behind one runner (or preferably a group of runners). Think of migrating geese alternating in the lead position.

That same experience also tells me that pace is a very important factor in human running (and by extension, horses), particularly into the wind. I have been badly cooked a number of times for early fractions that were too fast for me to maintain.

Mike

Mike,

Drafting seems to be a factor in bicycle and human racing, so I presume it is a factor in horse racing also. It\'s something that rarely gets mentioned even among \"trip\" handicappers. I\'ve been trying to watch that kind of thing more closely, but it\'s hard to accumulate evidence of it as a factor.

One idea I am tossing around is that a very fast pace in combination with some drafting could account for the occasional very fast figure you see from closers under those conditions. Figures they rarely duplicate under more average conditions.

When you look at the closer\'s fractions there often isn\'t a lot of evidence that they should have been helped by the faster pace unless they are the very deep closer type that sort of got dragged into running at a more efficient pace than usual. Another possibility is that when they finally make their move they meet much less resistance from the front runners than usual because they are all dead tired. However, maybe the biggest factor is drafting.      

There\'s another application I\'m just starting to look it, but I don\'t have much evidence yet.

[bobphilo]

Guys, I've been a long a long-time lurker/observer of this forum and this drafting thread has motivated me to make my maiden post. Mike and Class, your observations have been excellent but we have to make a distinction between drafting and protection from the wind. If the 2 were the same, then geese would fly in a straight line instead of the familiar V pattern. Drafting is when an object moving through space creates a turbulence wave that sucks anything slightly behind and to the side of it forward, hence the V formation. Studies with cyclists have shown that a rider drafting off another can get as much as a 15% boost relative to his competitor. This sounds like a tremendous advantage but the drafter has to be in and maintain just the right position to get this benefit. Geese in flight can do this but, as Jerry has pointed out, horses in a race do not maintain such rigid relations in relative position for any length of time. A move of just a foot or two back and forth or to the side and he's out of the "sweet spot". I guess that theoretically, if one films a race from an overhead blimp and measures the amount of time that a horse is in the right drafting position, he could quantify this effect, but this is obviously extremely impractical, at best. I have observed on a few occasions that horses running between and slightly behind 2 others, and is in effect getting double drafting and for an extended period of time, have finished better than would be expected from their PP's. Obviously this happens too rarely to have any real value.
Speaking of drafting, I wonder if it and wind protection might help explain PH's performance in the Distaff. Down the backstretch she was shielded from the wind by the front runners and when she made her move, did so from between and slightly behind 2 other horses (a double draft effect) which, combined with her already strong late move,
helped catapult her through her late run, where she left the others in the dust. Combine this with the fact that she, like every other horse in the race, was given credit for the wind adjustment, though she was shielded from it, may account for both her large winning margin and huge figure. Just a thought.

Bob    

bob,

\"I have observed on a few occasions that horses running between and slightly behind 2 others, and is in effect getting double drafting and for an extended period of time, have finished better than would be expected from their PP's.\"

This is more of the kind of thing I am interested in because I doubt it would  be an intentional jockey strategy very often. I see race developments from time to time where there are several horses across the track and someone is sitting just behind them. There are even situations where there are two groups across the track and someone is sitting just behind both. I\'m trying to understand if there\'s any impact by looking at the figures. When I see a closer run a lifetime top and believe the pace was fast, I am watching the trip to see if the horse spent a lot of time behind horses. I might then be able to see how they do in their next start vs. those that didn\'t have a similar trip behind horses.

[miff]

Jerry,

The wind was again with the runners on the backside.All flags blew the same way but the wind got stronger and gustier as the day went on.No sign of the flags pointing at each other when I was looking.I\'m sure your guy observed this.

The incomparable \"horseman\", Rick Dutrow, won the last race with a forward moving Wild Nature, off a nice trip, against a pretty fast bunch in a quick raw final time for today.

Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- any word from your buddy who gets Rag about BC figures?

Don\'t you think that by bringing it up every few hours you are lowering the probability that they will actually release them. I doubt they want to deal with an endless barrage of attacks on their figures even in the situations where they feel they could defend themselves and counter attack. It hasn\'t been typical of them to spend the time and energy defending their position.

[bobphilo]

So you think that Len would punish his loyal customers and deprive them of the BC figures just to not be seen giving in to Jerry?
Unfortunately, that may be the case, and if so, you may be right, Class, that further gauding will make it less likely that he will release them.

Bob

 

[TGJB]

CH-- what they want to happen is for nobody to notice that after giving out the figures every year for the Triple Crown races and Breeders\' Cup, and Friedman saying that they would this year, they will not. They want it nice and quiet, like it didn\'t happen. That\'s why they delete dissenting opinion-- and even straightforward questions from Jimbo-- from their board.

By the way, any of this remind anybody of anything else going on in the world?(And I\'m not a partisan-- I voted for the guy the first time).

They have a problem releasing those figures because it will be instantly clear to everybody with an IQ over 80 that not only their figures for that day ,but OTHER figures (specifically the Gold Cup), are not only wrong, but ridiculous, unless they do things completely contrary to the theories they have been advocating. They care more about the perception of accuracy than about being accurate, and I\'m not just saying that. I mean it.

[beyerguy]

I was checking out the other site today.  I\'m amazed they don\'t offer their product  for sale online.  Fed Ex, are they serious?