Wind Adjustments?

[marcus]

I hear the Ragozin numbers are slow , perhaps how they utilize Variants for Wind & Track Speed can account for the some of the difference .

[Mall]

Saying that a measurement cannot be made absent additional information, which is what I said, is very different than saying that there is no way the measurement can ever be made, which is what you seem to be saying.  Drag is routinely measured for cars & in other fields, & could either be measured exactly or closely estimated for individual horses.

Wind does affect final time, but what the basic principles suggest to me is that the greater the liklihood that wind had a serious impact on final time, the greater the liklihood that a downward wind adjustment applied to the winner\'s number will represent the opposite of what actually happened.

Using PH\'s performance in the BC as an example, as a result of her trip she did not have to deal with running into what I understood was a 15 m.p.h. headwind for that race, yet her figure was lowered by some amount to reflect a wind adjustment. My take is that, if anything, the adjustment to PH\'s number should have been upward, not downward, & that the only way an adjustment to CL\'s number based on the number of lengths CL finished behind PH would represent what actually happened would be coincidence.

There are a number of ways to deal with this issue, including the one you seem to favor, namely relying on an overall impression gained from working with the data over a long period of time. My inclination is to take a very different approach, so I suppose this is another one of those issues where we\'ll simply have to agree to disagree.  

   

 

\"Using PH\'s performance in the BC as an example, as a result of her trip she did not have to deal with running into what I understood was a 15 m.p.h. headwind for that race, yet her figure was lowered by some amount to reflect a wind adjustment. My take is that, if anything, the adjustment to PH\'s number should have been upward, not downward, & that the only way an adjustment to CL\'s number based on the number of lengths CL finished behind PH would represent what actually happened would be coincidence. \"

exactly.

assuming the wind adjustment made to the entire race was correct, the difference in performance level between CL and PH is probably less than the margin between them. in this case, CL should receive the full benefit of the wind adjustment.  perhaps as you suggest PH should actually be penalized. however, one could envision disasterous results if a figure maker attempted to make wind adjustments for each horse individually. at the same time, one could envision disasterous results from not appreciating the fact that some horses may have been impacted postively and others negatively within the same race when it\'s time to assign a track variant for that individual race.

[bobphilo]

I agree that that PL had a more favorable trip relative to the wind than much of the field, but to quntify it accuratly you would have to know precisely what percentage of her race she ran facing the negative influence of the wind, drag and vortex effects, vs. the percentage of the race she recieved the positive efeects of drafting, vs. the neutral effct of just runnung shielded. I think the best one can do is to acknowledge that she recieved a favorable trip relative to most of the others and look at her figure in that context. Just like a horse that avoids a dead rail or steals an easy early lead.

Bob

[BitPlayer]

TGJB -

Did you ever do item 5 (running BC Day without wind)?  I\'m just curious how big a number people are talking about.  If it was posted and I missed it, I apologize in advance.

BitPlayer

[TGJB]

Bit-- no, I forgot all about it. If we can we\'ll do it later today.

[TGJB]

Bit-- the biggest wind adjustment the computer threw up on on BC day was about half a point. First of all, there wasn\'t that much wind, and it got lighter as the day went on-- but on top of that, it was blowing at 4 to 5 o\' clock (imagine you are looking down at the track, with the finish line being 6 o\'clock). This means that for the chute races it worked against them somewhat on the straightaways (more distance running into it than having it behind them), but that was basically offset by having it behind them on the only turn.

Keep in mind that as I have discussed here before, wind adjustments are just rough estimates to get us in the ballpark. You still make your figures and final corrections for each race off the horses.

[Easy Goer]

\"3-- Ragozin and I started in the same place with a wind formula, which was to have someone do it on paper (in my case a friend who is a meteorologist). In theory, there is a square involved in the formula, which makes the effect of higher winds on final time very dramatic-- the impact of a 10 mph wind is not doubled at 20mph, it\'s 4 times as great (10 squared is 100, 20 squared 400).\"


I\'ll assume that the effect is programmed correctly and that your example was pulled off the top of your head. But, to be rigorous...

Your example is only true for an object at rest. Drag is proportional to wind density times its velocity squared. But the velocity of interest is that of the wind relative to the horse, not the wind relative to the ground. Since the horse is already traveling close to 40 mph, a headwind of 20 mph makes the velocity of interest 60 mph (40+20), while a head wind of 10 mph makes the velocity of interest 50 mph (40+10). For this example, the effect is not nearly 4 times as great - it is only 1.4 times as great (60**2/50**2).

The overall effect of wind sounds like a pretty straightforward problem, given a reasonable amount of data. I suspect the correlation could best be validated by looking at results from straight races (quarter horses) over a wide range of head and tail winds.

I suspect that the effect of density would normally be small, but I will ask a question. What happens to your variants in the rain, snow, and fog?

[TGJB]

Easy-- as I have posted here before, both Ragozin and I found that as a practical matter using a square made the effect of wind too great, and ratcheted it down. In the end, everything we do is a function of what works, not theory. Not so with the other guy (lots of assumptions), but that\'s another story.

My guess is that what you mean by \"variants\' here is wind corrections, and I have no idea what effect if any those weather issues would create. As I have said many times the wind corrections are very rough and we do race by race corrections based on our judgment, so I wouldn\'t see it.

[Easy Goer]

By variant, I meant... uh... variant. Since you don\'t build precipitation into your race-by-race wind correction, then the effect must be hidden in the track variant for the day (or the race, if it was broken out). I guess you think that precipitation can only affect final time by the amount of moisture it puts in the track.

[bobphilo]

Thanks Jerry - this is useful info. I was was wondering if differing wind conditions were a factor in the slower times of the Juvy fillies vs. the colts.
It now appears that the difference was partly due to pace and mostly to the boys being faster than the girls this year, for a change.

Bob

[TGJB]

Easy-- OK, I\'ll play. But first of all, why don\'t you identify yourself.

Then tell me what you mean by \"what happens to your variants\", and I\'ll answer you. Because if you are asking me to separate what part of a variant adjustment is due to moisture in the air vs, moisture in the track, a) who knows, and b) who cares? The job is to get the figures right, and the only way to do that is by using the figure histories of the horses themselves, and looking at how fast each of them ran today. Right?

[Easy Goer]

TGJB writes:

\"Easy-- OK, I\'ll play. But first of all, why don\'t you identify yourself...\"


Jerry, you do not know me. Nicely Nicely may know my identity. Earlier this year, he sent me a very polite e-mail regarding the usage of a certain \"script\".

I am not affiliated with anybody in the racing business. I am just a life-long racing fan. As far back as grade school, I would walk a couple of extra blocks on my way home just to be able to stand outside the fence at the old Tropical Park Racetrack, where I could watch the horses come around the far turn and holler bets to my old man who was usually inside. Unfortunately, minors were not allowed inside the track at that time.

I now have multiple degrees in Engineering and Applied Sciences. One of my current jobs is to make \'performance figs\' for liquid rocket engines. Least you wonder, I can assure you that there are more than a few similarities between making figures for the horses and making figures for space propulsion systems.

[asfufh]

 Easy Goer said \"now have multiple degrees in Engineering and Applied Sciences. One of my current jobs is to make \'performance figs\' for liquid rocket engines. Least you wonder, I can assure you that there are more than a few similarities between making figures for the horses and making figures for space propulsion systems.\"

So, who said handicapping wasn\'t rocket science?

[Easy Goer]

Hey Jerry. No response? Disappointed? What were you expecting - some secret identity (e.g., a commie spy[/U])?

Methinks you are paranoid, mainly brought about by your past actions against former colleagues. Live by the sword and die by the sword? Not necessarily. Why not just drop the politics and stick with your original premise of continually improving the numbers?

Other than the previous flaws I have pointed out, you still make some claims that are just plain false. And I don\'t use that word lightly, as I know very well the difference between making an arguable (though questionable) assumption versus making a claim that of itself can be proved false through the laws of physics, statistics, and/or general mathematics and science.

Want more? So do I. Quid pro quo, Jerry. Quid pro quo. E-mail me if you want more specifics, as your online responses are catered to the masses as political (i.e., meaningless) drivel.

And while I have your attention, what ever happened to your investigation of how beaten lengths correlates to a time increment?