Wind Adjustments?

[kev]

Yes, they do sell them on-line. Right on the front page, buy sheets on-line.

[miff]

Jerry,

Raggie Richie was under the impression that the Rags BC figs are already out.I told him they were not and asked if he could get them.He will bring them to Aqu on Tuesday,unless Len is unwilling to release them to anyone yet.


The BC horses have to run back eventually, so the Rag figs have to become public anyway, no? Why hold them back? Why can\'t someone post the question to Len?? I don\'t get all the secrecy.

Mike

Bob,

I sort of agree with Jerry, but disagree a little too.

My impression is that they believe both methodologies have pluses and minuses, but theirs is superior. They probably know that some figures they produce don\'t make much sense even though they would never admit it.

What it seems to me they don\'t want to do is get into a long debate over it by pointing out every figure from this side they believe is wrong too.

It generally degenerates into a bashing contest with both sides having a different reason why certain horses may or may not have run a certain way and neither side proving anything. Plus, IMO it\'s extremely difficult to communicate the issues to people that have never made figures.

So I agree with Jerry that they\'d rather just post the figures and allow the issue to go away without discussing them. Personally, I would just like to see them.  I\'ve seen 4 sets so far and there\'s some disagreement on a few races.      

[TGJB]

Miff-- While the horses eventually will run back, it\'s an entirely different thing to present the races (and the day) as a whole, where everyone can get an overall idea of what you did, especially when the horse\'s previous figures are fresh in everyone\'s mind.

The secrecy is because if their customers see that Borrego \"earned\" as good or better a figure for running 10th by 10 as he did for winning the Gold Cup by a block, they might finally begin to get the picture, since I have been calling their attention to it. To say nothing of the other horses out of the Gold Cup ALL jumping forward maybe 10 points or so (off the top of my head), and a few interior problems on the day, like the Distaff figures vs. the Classic, etc.

As for why their customers aren\'t pressing them for it, there\'s this line at the end of On The Waterfront-- something like \"I was ratting on myself all them years...\"

[marcus]

I don\'t see Rag pattrons as sulking over this Rag\'s BC figure debocile on the TG Board and the potential implications - perhaps inquieries for the BC #\'s are being taken down off their own Rags board , I\'m sure some of their people can\'t be too happy about any of this . I guess this is a rhetorical or academic question but , Why don\'t or Why can\'t Rags get their BC numbers out and stand by them , while acknowledging differences in methodologies ? I suppose Rags has weighed everything and decided that they will take less of a hit this way ( in the long run ) by only letting the BC numbers out when the horse\'s , 1 or 2 at a time etc ,  re-enter in race\'s .      

It can\'t be good for business to put out some figures and have your competitor attack them relentlessly and it can\'t be much fun to spend 10 hours a day defending your point of view to a lot of people that aren\'t familiar enough with the process to understand why you are doing it differently.    

[davidrex]

     
   Very ballsy gamble for brown to call rags out after struggling to make sense of biggest day in horse gambling.
   It\'s been way too long for a response...hell len could have taken jerry\'s #s\' and fudged a little
   Is len going to wait for a couple of returns and adjust accordingly?Lord knows it was impossible to read handwritten copies for all the changes made decades past.Computers have a built in eraser ,he could just keep changing them periodically.
   Imho it just isn\'t feasible to have so many huge bounces and quick recoveries as is to be found elsewhere.
 
      PARTYpokerON!

[miff]

By now, it must be painfully clear to all who are following this issue that many sheet players who compare Rags and TG are wondering \"Who is getting it wrong?\" Aside from some of the parochial comments by the blind followers in both camps, this issue is far from resolved.

It is apparent to me that there is much more going on here than a rather sudden difference of opinion in methodology between former colleagues.Until fairly recent times, a scale of comparison of 3-4 points existed between the two products.In examining both products for about 6 months, that scale of comparison has all but disappeared.Why? Jerry has offered his opinion which goes to various methodoloy differences/errors which he believes are being made by Rags. In the absence of a reply from the RAGS people, there is no way to know what happened.

As a TG customer,I have asked about and debated with Jerry on more than one occasion about certain figures, his theories and opinions.While I still have some issues, I did receive a reply. On the other hand,I am told that several RAGS customers have asked for the 2005 BC figs which were always posted in years past.Call me naive, but with credibility at stake,I would think that Rags would be anxious to challenge Jerry\'s methodology/figs, NO?

At the very least, why can\'t RAGS just respond in some fashion so that everyone could form their own opinion of what has/is happening with the figs.

Mike

[miff]

Jerry,

Today the flags were blowing mildly against the horses on the backside, all in the same general direction, when I looked.

Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- we\'re getting race by race readings based on other info than those flags in the infield-- ones where the building doesn\'t affect things. But I am interested in any times you see them pointing at each other, because they demonstrate that no wind formula is in the end accurate because of the currents created by the building. It will happen before the winter is over.

[miff]

Jerry,
I agree and have seen it. I also note the swirling wind on the ground level occasionally, but the flags are still straight.Very tricky, yet meaningful.How the hell can you get a reasonable handle on it.

Mike

[bobphilo]

Miff,

I, for one would like to thank you for your scouting reports regarding the wind direction at Aqueduct. Knowing the days when the flags indicate simultanious and conflicting wind directions could be invaluable in understanding results on that day.

Bob

[Mall]

My layman\'s take on the basics after an in-depth discussion with an expert in the field of aerodynamics:

1. Drag does not increase in a linear fashion as wind speed increases, & is probably negligible until wind speed, determined by adding the speed of the horse to the speed of the headwind, using the most straightforward example, reaches a point where drag increases exponentially.

2. The \"vortex\" created behind a horse by itself on a lone lead running into a headwind also increases drag, which would be less if there were horses close behind such a horse.

3. Horses at the very back of the pack also experience drag running into a headwind, so the best place to be is in the middle of the pack, behind the horses who are behind the horse on the lead.

4. Drag can only be determined accurately if it\'s calculated for each horse individually, something which cannot be done absent a great deal more information than is currently available.

5. As a result of 1-4, one can legitimately question the current practice of applying an average wind adjustment to the figure of the winner, especially when the winner was a midpack horse which encountered little or no drag.

Finally, the expert\'s qualified answer to the question of whether no wind adjustment would be better than what is currently being done: \"Probably.\"

[bobphilo]

I agree that if you just apply wind adjustments blindly and indiscriminately, you are probably better off without them.
This is precisely the reason I feel that the best way to see if wind, as well as all other factors, have been taken into account properly is to compare the horses' actual times with their projected times. Everything else is just additional evidence to explain what the horses' actual performances tell you.

Bob

[TGJB]

Bob-- Right. And working with the data over a very long period of time has told me:

a) that whatever anybody says, wind affects final time. I have no argument with the idea that it could affect some horses more than others, but there is no way to measure it, and I don\'t think there is a huge difference.

b) wind formulas like the ones Ragozin and I use will get you in the ballpark, but will never be totally accurate as a practical matter-- aside from all the estimates involved (speed, constancy, direction), there is a really large building there that creates currents. Think about those stories about football teams (Giants Stadium?) opening and closing doors to affect kickers.

c) SO-- you either use wind and then make corrections based on the horses, because you know your underlying data is innacurate, or you do what Beyer does, which is NOT use wind, and make corrections based on the horses. What you don\'t do is what Ragozin claims he does in his book-- use the same correction for each race on the day, down to a quarter point. Even if the only issue was the effect of wind (as opposed to changes in track speed), that would be flat out ridiculous.