Travers

[jbelfior]

Preliminary thoughts on the Travers:

Saratoga races at 1 1/4 are very demanding. Not the type of race that can easily be won on the front end. This was in evidence as recently as last year when LION HEART and PURGE both faded badly despite the non-demanding pace.

Historically, horses that have run well in the Belmont Stakes have fared quite well in here.  An ability to finish at 1 1/2 at Belmont bodes well for the ability to finish in here.

My thoughts are that FLOWER ALLEY is too aggressive early and his pattern (Pletcher trained) does not suggest improvement. I do not like him at the distance....ditto Roman Ruler.

IMO, BELLAMY ROAD is to Zito in here what COMMENTATOR was to him in the Whitney. Run with him early and you\'re cooked,let him go and he may wire the field. The exception here is that BR has not raced in 3 months and is unlikely to win this on or off the pace.

Perhaps ANDROMEDA\'s HERO gives Zito back to back Travers wins at 5-1. Then again he always likes to be left with too much to do.



Good Luck,
joe B.    

My thinking on the Travers is similar to yours, but I\'d have a very difficult time punching a ticket on Andromeda\'s Hero. Unless something crazy happens pace-wise, I think one of them will either get the 10F or stagger home to beat AH.

[jimbo66]

First of all, you will get better than 5-1 on Andormeda\'s Hero, if you want to bet him.  Maybe 10-1, but not less than 8-1.  

Class, as a \"pace handicapper\", I am surprised you would even suggest that something crazy will happen pace-wise in this race.  The pace is very obvious in this race, barring stumbling starts.  Bellamy will be on the lead, and loose.  Flower Alley will be second.  Reverberate maybe 3rd.  Roman Ruler will be in the middle to back of the pack.  Johnny V has to make the decision when to go get Bellamy Road.  I would be surprised to see the 1/2 mile fraction any quicker than 47, assuming a normal track speed on Saturday.  

I don\'t know about anybody else, but I for one am glad to see that Bellamy Road entered here.  It makes the race tons more interesting.  Before his entry, I think you were looking at 6-5 each on Flower Alley and Roman Ruler.  Bellamy drives interest because there are many out there who still believe in him, based on the Wood, and will bet him here, thinking the Derby was the exception and not the norm.  There are others who think that he was exposed in the Derby and he is more reputation than real horse.  Plus the 112 day layoff into a 1 1/4 race is not ideal, at least to me.  

Any thoughts out there as to who will go off favored?  Who will be 2nd choice and who will be 3rd choice?

To me it is at least 90% that one of the big three wins here, Flower Alley, Roman Ruler or Bellamy Road.  

[Michael D.]

RR has the look of the forty niner or coronados quest - two horses that won the haskel then barely held on in a slowly run travers. FA is a mystery. i\'m not a big fan, but he will be eating very big vitamins heading in. it\'s all or nothing for BR. still not sure which one it is though. chek and AH are slow, but they could pick them off if it collapses. declans moon runs by these in a gallop. these colts might get buried in the fall. i wish a horse like concern was entered here. picks later.

jimbo,

I agree that your pace scenario is the most likely one. I just never assume that my \"most likely\" pace scenario is the one that will occur. It\'s just one more probability.

I think it would be suicidal for FA to run with BR early. But I want to bet against Bellamy Road in this race despite the fact that I think he will get loose. Zito may be doing well off layoffs lately, but it\'s still a very tough task to bring a horse back into a Grade 1 10F race off a layoff this long - especially off an inury.  

IMO, BR had one huge race (the Wood) and it came on what I considered a somewhat suspect track against Grade 2/Grade 3 horses. His Derby was a lot better than it looks on paper because he was being used hard on that pace while wide to keep his position (even if the outside was better that day). All told, I think his reputation off the Wood exceeds what he has demonstrated to date. Add that to the layoff and I think he\'s a bet against if the odds are fairly low.

The real question for me is seperating FA and RR. I became a fan of FA off his Derby performance - which I thought was very good. RR beat him last time out and I think he might be a shade the better horse right now (though that is far from certain based on speed figures), but IMO it\'s just a matter of time before RR falls apart. IMO, it\'s a close call between those two and figuring out which of them will like 10F more complicates the matter.  





 

[jbelfior]

Jimbo--


Anything faster than a :47 on that track at 1 1/4 would give AH a hell of a shot.

But CH is probably correct. Either FA or RR will assme the lead at the quarter pole and hold off AH. I can\'t see BR being a factor at the eight pole in this. This is not BIRDSTONE in that BR will be running the whole 1 1/4, not coming from mid-pack.

REPENT did very well off the layoff, but it was understandable based on his running style.



Good Luck,
joe B.  

[davidrex]

     Does this mean derby1592 won\'t be offering up his eloquent oratory in the ROW section of this site?
     Wasn\'t he the only guest handicapper to offer up his opinion?

[jimbo66]

Based on the views on this board, I guess I have a shot at getting the 3-1 that I would like to get on Bellamy Road.  

The Wood was NOT his only good race.  His first race this year was as fast as anything that Roman Ruler or Flower Alley had run this year until the Jim Dandy and Haskell.  (I have not seen those figures, but I assume they are in the negative nunmber range).

Bellamy Road didn\'t just beat the Wood field, he destroyed them.  Scrappy T. came back and ran very well in two races after that.  Yes, I know the saddle supposedly slipped.  You couldn\'t see it, watching the replay, but some people want to attribute 15 lengths to it.  This horse ran a very big race in the Wood, around two turns, showing no signs of distance limitations.  I am not a pedigree expert, but I will take his pedigree over both Flower Alley (Distorted Humor on top) and Roman Ruler (Fu Peg on top), as far as ability to get 1 1/4.  I know that RR has a brilliant pedigree, I just think that he won\'t want 1 1/4.  

I agree that the 1 1/4 off a 112 day layoff is a tall order.  Which is why I want 3-1.  If he was fit coming into the race, I would take 3-2.  He will be loose on the lead, saving ground, setting a reasonable pace.  This horse has a beautiful effortless stride when he is right.  He will be opening up on the field as they hit the far turn.  After opening up 5 in the stretch, he will get leg weary late because of the layoff, and win by a diminishing length.

I just don\'t know who the horse is that will be getting close at the end.........

Jimbo,

BR\'s race prior to the Wood did get a negative number on TG, but others didn\'t make it as fast.

He did destroy that Wood field, but I think part of that was the phenomenon I often bring up where a dominant speed horse meets a lot of inferior horses. The inferior horses often try to run with the superior horse (like Scrappy T did) or keep up and they wind up getting beat by a lot more lengths than the figures would have suggested. I played Scrappy T in his next start out of the Wood because I was almost certain he was a lot better than he looked based on the figure he earned in the Wood chasing BR.    

What I think it comes down to is that IMO a -5 loose on the lead against weaker horses on a track that\'s playing kindly to speed is not the same thing as a -5 against solid horses when you are tested strongly on a more even track.  So if his reputation is based on his lone -5 and a -1 (or thereabouts) against very overmatched horses while loose in Florida, IMO he\'s overrated even if he\'s better than these.
 

[jimbo66]

Beyer gave it a 121 or so.  I call that \"as fast\".

Rags gave it the equivalent of a negative 2 or 3, which is not as fast, but still very fast.  

I hear your points and if Afleet Alex was in the field, I would probably agree with you.

There are two other \"runners\" in the race.

Roman Ruler, who has soundness issues and will be coming back on three weeks rest after a career top (I assume the Haskell was a career top).

Flower Alley, who is the horse to beat, in my mind.  At times in the Jim Dandy, he looked very good, and I guess the overall number was sharp.  But what did he beat?  Was that field any better than the Wood?  I say \"no\".  

I think that makes Bellamy very playable at 3-1.

jimbo,

\"Beyer gave it a 121 or so. I call that \"as fast\". \"

I was talking about the Florida race.

Everyone agreed on the speed of the Wood. I disagree on the quality. Like I said, I think he may be better than these off that Wood race, but not by as much as the figures indicate and he was hurt etc...  Not sure what I would make the fair price, but if he\'s bet similar to the other two, I\'ll take one of the other two. It\'s not easy tossing the fastest horse.

   

[xichibanx]

I think BR will be the chalk at around 9/5 to 2/1.

Just my opinion.

xichibanx

[jbelfior]

The morning line agrees with you as BR drew the fence.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[NoCarolinaTony]

OHH NOOOO!!!!

THIS is Deja Vu All over again.

We need to get into something new, like what impact if any will this layoff have in a 10F race. Why do we still think Fu Peg horses can\'t get 10F when they seem to get distance very well on both dirt and turf?

Once I get the sheets and the form I will be back with more.

NC Tony

PS Who will be there the last week of meet? I plan to be there Thurs through Monday. any Seminars?

NC Tony

[colt]

BR looks like a lock here – will save ground given the rail draw; clearly the Fastest 3yo (-4) on record; Zito has become unbeatable with the layoff move; Looking for 2/1 or better; FA is typical of TP recent winners that have exited the Jim Dandy; Plus FA was drifting/bearing out in his last start - PASS; RR – clearly there are distance limitations; Beat Zito second-stringer (SUN KING) last out and looked ordinary in doing so; Reverberate is a gamer, and appears most likely of the stalker types to move forward; Someone needs to tell DGM that CD opens in November – PASS; Chekhov still waiting for this one to show up – too slow;  AH is a typical PLODDER – always tempting – not likely;  

Will solidified picks after sheets become available.