Travers

[jbelfior]

CH---


I agree with TGJB in that BR will run a good race. I do not think he will win, however. Outside of the patterns and numbers comes the conditioning factor.

This is not a mile on a speed favoring GP surface or a 1 1/8 on a souped up Aqueduct surface. This is a 1 1/4 on a demanding racetrack over that distance. Anyone who disagrees should note how superior horses like MEDAGLIA D\'ORO, CORONADO\'s QUEST, and HOLY BULL barely held on in their TRAVERS wins.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jimbo66]

Point taken Joe B.  No doubt, it is a demanding race.  That is why in many years horses coming over from Monmouth, having run 1 1/8 in the Haskell are bet againsts.  (many times that track carries horses with distance limitations a little longer).

However, I don\'t necessarily think that Medaglia D\'Oro, Holy Bull and Coronado\'s Quest are superior to Bellamy Road.  Bellamy still has to prove his brilliance, but it is too soon to say those horses were superior.  Medaglia and Holy Bull were pushed very hard on the lead in their races and Coronado\'s Quest was not a 1 1/4 horse and ran into a very good horse in Victory Gallop.

Bellamy probably has things his own way on the lead tomorrow.  Much different than Medaglia and Holy Bull.  And I think Victory Gallop was superior to Roman Ruler and Flower Alley.  (relative to their generation.  I don\'t want to start the whole \"are horses getting faster\" chain again).

Joe,

I agree.

\"MANY\" of the Grade 1 layoff horses that I bet against over the years ran teriffic races without winning. I think what I am talking about here probably doesn\'t even show up much in the speed figures. It\'s more of an intangible conditioning thing. In the last 1/16 or 1/8, a lot of them came up just a little too short to sustain a ding dong battle through the stretch with an opponent of similar class. The speed figures look fine, but you wind up ripping up a lot of short priced tickets and getting a low ROI. Put the same horse in a lower level stakes or a weak field and the figure doesn\'t change that much but the competitive battle through the stretch changes a lot and allows the horse to win. I\'l guess we\'ll see.  I mean he\'s probably going to get an extremely easy trip loose on the lead from the rail.  Maybe that will make the difference. That\'s what\'s making this race such a great one. I\'m really happy Zito opted for this...not that a matchup with LITF wouldn\'t have been fun too.

[jbelfior]

All good points. While there are factors that point to BR getting beat tom\'w (layoff, conditioning, distance),there may not be anyone good enough to take advantage.

PS: Not sure BR will be strolling along for long. Got to think that REVERBERATE and or FLOWER ALLEY go after him if he tries to go anything slower than a :47.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jbelfior]

With a fall campaign planned, the King\'s Bishop, though shorter in distance, may have been more demanding on BR.  

Speaking of LITF, does anyone envision an improved enough effort from STORM SURGE where he may give the chalk lovers a scare in deep stretch. Not a bad prep by Stewart putting some speed in a horse who had been a router this year which ended up being a bad decision. Looks like 7f may be ideal for this guy.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[gowand]

Holy bull not superior to Bellamy Road. How about 13-16 lifetime with a Gr. I at 2 and 5 more at three.  If he was pointed for this race and had a solid prep he may deserve 2-1.  I don\'t think there is any way to predict how he will run.  I also don\'t see any way that Johnny V. lets him get loose.  I think BR cooks them both with Roman Ruler stalking third or fourth with reverberate.  At the top of the stretch the top two fall apart.  RR/rev/all in the tri.  ex\"s rr/rev and chek

[gowand]

totally agree with ss.  Very fast two year old sprint top and looks to be sitting on a big race.  If only there was more legit speed to make litf use a couple of gears early on.

[jimbo66]

No doubt that Holy Bull had an awesome career.  I loved the horse, he started out Monmouth based, at a time when that was the only track I went to.  

But like I said, we have not seen enough of Bellamy Road to assert where he fits among the other generations.  

I also meant speed figure superiority, not necessarily wins and money earned.  On both Tgraph and Beyer, Bellamy\'s Wood was a monster monster race on figures.  

Last point.  The outcome is certainly in doubt until after the race is over, but there is no doubt at all in my mind that you are wrong about the pace scenario.  No way that Johnny V is going to run early with Bellamy Road.  IF bellamy loses it will be because he wasn\'t good or fit enough.  If Flower Alley loses it will be  becasue he bounced or couldn\'t get the distance.  Johnny V will not hook this horse before the turn.  Book it.  He doesn\'t think he needs to and it is not his horse\'s style.  The Jim Dandy was the only race that Flower Alley showed any early speed and he went 23.4 to the quarter.  It was a paceless race.  Bellamy will be on the lead and setting his pace.  Whether he can win off the layoff at 1 1/4 is a much tougher question.

I say he does.  I also think you toss Flower Alley.  Yesterday\'s race by Ashado was the final piece to that decision.  Don\'t Get Mad will be the suck up late for 2nd horse after Bellamy runs them into the ground.

Good luck

[HP]

Bellamy Road has an ugly pattern.  Roman Ruler is coming back pretty quick off a big race.  I think Flower Alley has the best chance of the short priced horses to run his race, and I expect even him to back up a little.

I\'ve seen a few people here like Andromeda\'s Hero.  He has a nice pattern, but he\'s a little slower than...Don\'t Get Mad, who figures to be dismissed on the win end.  I will excuse his last off the cross-country ship.  10-1?  He ran a four as a 2yo so it wouldn\'t really shock me if he had another little forward move in him here.  Picks up the pieces late?  I won\'t empty my piggy bank, but I\'ll take him to win and small exactas under Bellamy Road (1X) and FAlley (2X).

Good luck to all.  

HP

The more I look at this race the more I think the correct thing to do is pass it and enjoy it.  

Where\'s the value?

There\'s usually a lot of value in Grade 1 races playing against horses that are favored despite a long layoff. However, this one is being trained by Nick Zito (who is obviously skilled at bringing them back) and is highly likely to get a very good pace scenario.

His major competitors, FA and RR, are both a least a little suspect at 10F.

RR has had hoof problems for awhile and IMO it\'s just a matter of time before Baffert works this horse into another setback and he often does with promising lightly raced horses (and probable rtirement).

Ashado threw in a clinker yesterday and even though TP\'s horses have been running very well for the last few days - Carninooch (big new top), Adieu (Graded Stakes win), Maddalena (good second after tough duel in Victory Ride Stakes) - her performance was hardly confidence inspiring.

[twoshoes]

Looking for new tops from Reverberate and Don\'t Get Mad. I can\'t knock anyone taking the fastest horse here if they get their price (I\'d need 3-1) but I\'m going to take a pass on the layoff and I think RR bounces coming back a little quick. Top two keyed in multi race wagers and in an exacta box with Flower Alley.

Good luck all.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I can't see investing more than token money in this Travers. These are competent horses, but you have to suspect most of them are survivors more than the cream of the crop. Some still think Bellamania is the crop's top horse and what he does at Saratoga Saturday will shed additional light upon whether the Wood was a one time anomaly or whether he's got the potential to be mentioned in the same breath as Afleet Alex or Smarty Jones. There's a lot to factor in trying to ascertain where Bellmania stands. First and foremost being whether he's run as fast as some of the reputation figure makers maintain. In that regard, I know private figure makers that have his Wood only one length faster than Flower Alley's Jim Dandy.

Another issue with the Travers is to ask what impacted Bellamania's fade in the Derby? Some are convinced he was on the golden part of the track until the stretch run, but that running over the deeper going late wasn't why he faded. Where you were on the strip appears to have played as big a role in the Derby as how fast you ran early. At least that is the consensus among some pretty astute handicappers. In that regard Flower Alley ran the Derby quicksand and all things considered held up pretty dang well. He's also golden at the Spa and a projected third choice with Bellamania going off at a probable 7-5 upon fast figure reputation.

Lastly, you have to wonder about the sudden change of plans by Zito. Its quite probable Zito eyed the entries and said "This is a chance to speed pop em like we did in the Wood and even if he's not up to the trip, his presence gives Andromeda's Hero a lift". (You have to remember Hero and Alley have run dead close to each other.) But in the end analysis, these are not the top horses of the crop and other than Bellamania there is no committed front ender. If Bellamania can't beat the survivor tier with the tactical situation he likes, you can kiss those 120 Beyers goodbye. You won't see them again, even if you think you saw them the first time. But that said, Flower Alley ain't no Shrinking Violet and unless Alley's saddle slips at the four mark pole, don't count upon another Wood optical illusion.

But then, I'm looking to beat Foggy in the King' Bishop as well. "Some men see thing that are and ask why?" I dream things that never were and ask: "Why not?"

P.S. Roman Ruler's foot issues are healed. Sure he could pop another, but its additional speculation.

[J-DUB]

    Have to like BELLAMY off the layoff with Zito. Wins this eaSy. I don\'t trust most of the others to get 1 1/4. I will put HERO and MAD under BELLAMY in exactas.

    This is a weak bunch for BELLAMY to beat for a cool million.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Well, hes 5-2 right now. I\'m dead on the pick 4 without him.

5-2 is what Tgraphers got on the last -5 horse going 10 marks. Still think he\'ll sink some at off time. Theres questions with fitness this time but the listed competition isn\'t as tough. Though I\'m not certain why anyone would believe Bellamania is a better 10 mark bet on this track than some of the others.

I had Flower Alley in the pick 4. I\'ll just root for him.

[Silver Charm]

Pletcher gets the Monkey off his back with a win in todays Travers.

Distorted Humor to win, I mean Flower Alley.........