Travers

Interesting comments from Bailey and Velasquez about the tactics for this race.

 http://www.drf.com/news/article/67930.html

[ezgoer89]

BR has an opening line of 2-1... there is no way in heck he is going to be near that at post time.  He\'s more likely 7-5 given the Zito/layoff/huge Wood fig combo....the oddsmaker is very out to lunch on the morning line.  There is, IMO, 0% chance he is not the post time favorite and 5% chance he is not less than 2-1.

[jimbo66]

Respectfully disagree.

I don\'t think they will make this horse the favorite off a 112 day layoff.  Roman Ruler is the horse that looks most likely to be favored, IMHO.

Although I don\'t disagree that BR might not be 2-1.  Outside the top three, nobody else takes much money.  You might see all three of the big three around the 2-1 mark.  

Class,

Those are very very interesting remarks from Bailey and Velasquez.  Sounds like neither one of them thinks much of BR in this spot.  Bailey\'s point about BR being pointed for the 7 furlong race until just recently could be very key and I didn\'t think about it when I posted my initial analysis.  The horse may have too much speed in him if he was being pointed to sprint with Lost in the Fog.  I wonder if Bailey has seen BR on the track and factored that into his comment about not thinking the horse will be fit.  Normally I don\'t care what jockeys say but Bailey is the exception.  Say what you want about whether he is riding as good as in the past, but he definitely classifies as a \"cerebral jockey\".  

I think I am back to the drawing board on this race.  

Waiting for Jerry to post figures and see if that sheds light.

Jimbo,

I agree.

You would think that if you are preparing a horses for a 10F race you would go about a little differently than if you are preparing a horse for a 7F race. If the connections really weren\'t sure about which way to go, it\'s hard to imagine he\'s 100% for this race. I want to qualify that a bit though. I have such a low opinion of Zito that it\'s entirely possible that the horse is perfectly prepared for 10F except that Zito was trying to get him ready for 7F.

Seriously, the rail will help and after looking at the PPs I\'m even more impressed with his Derby than my initial thinking. So I\'m less sure also.

As a general rule I just love betting against long layoffs when they go into Grade 1 races. I think it\'s a lot tougher than getting a horse ready for a more minor spot. So I\'m going to bet against him. I haven\'t decided which way to go yet.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Class you are the most confused guy on this board, if you agree with Jimbo\'s most recent post then what the heck did you mean or say before..or better yet why did you write it.

Right now the horse with the best current form without a doubt is Roman Ruler. RR current form reminds me quite a bit of Forty Niner back in the day. Zito is taking an educated gamble with BR but this field is much better than the walkover field of NY Breds he beat in the wood (albeit Naughty NYers did win the \"Big Apple \" today). One of these days Checkov will run a big race not sure if this is the one yet, but I never dismiss the Italian Frenchmen skills.

\"IF\" the pace is contested by BR/FA/RR early enough DGM may be the right horse for this race.

To Me the Value bet of the Day may be the $1.0MM Pick 4. Lets get cracking to find the value there. This race in and of itself may not provide the value we all want.

NC Tony

NCT,

Jimbo seems to be having some second thoughts about whether or not BR is prepared properly. I never had any second thoughts about that. I think coming into a Grade 1 race off a 112 day layoff is a huge disadvantage even when the trainer is skilled with layoffs.  

My assessment of BR\'s ability has changed a little. When I viewed his PP\'s for the Derby along side Flower Alley\'s, he looked better than I remembered. Despite the figures they earned in that race, IMO they both ran very well. FA has since demontrated that.

I think BR is probably the best horse, but I don\'t think he\'s best by enough to overcome the layoff disadvantage. So if he\'s the favorite or close, I\'ll take a stand against him.

I am less sure what to do with RR and FA. They ran similar races against each other and both subsequently ran very good races next time out. IMO, neither inspires clear cut confidence in their ability to get 10F. So I can\'t seperate them on that. I think RR is probably slightly more likely to fall apart given his history of hoof problems and Baffert as the trainer.


 

[jbelfior]

Interesting pattern for REVERBERATE, if one is simply looking at the Travers from a Thorograph perspective.


Bounces off of a new top early in his 3yo campaign then comes back with a new top in his 3rd start of the year. Off of a 2 month layoff, he runs his 3rd new top and then improves off of it 3 weeks later followed by his Belmont debacle.

In the Jim Dandy, off of an 8 week layoff, REVERBERATE matches his top. A 2 point move forward (quite possible for a horse who has already run 4 new tops this year) and regressions by FA and RR, make him an interesting entry. Pedigree bodes well for the distance if we assume REVERBERATE is a more mature and stronger colt at this point.

Any opinions on a horse who may have a higher ceiling than the others.



Good Luck,
Joe B.  

[spa]

This may be the race for Andromeda\'s Hero. I still look back at the finish of the Arkansas Derby and am waiting for that same late run. At 12-1, it\'s bombs away!!!!

[NoCarolinaTony]

SPA,

This one (AH) doesn\'t look that good in G1 races and in this race in particular. That was an optical illusion with one horse running out with another one pulling up. Good luck to you with AH.

DGM scary bad number TGJB refers to was equal to the scary bad number Bellamy ran in last race.  So betting Bellamy is not equally scary?..............HMMMM

Bellamy Road obviously scary fast one out of 6 times but also has soundness issues. His 3 yo top while incredible was achieved with ideal conditions against a very weak bunch. Think this one has been treated with kid gloves due to connections and breeding value. We may never see that race again. If he doesn\'t run very well this time would you be surprised to see him retired? Project this one anywhere from a -2 to a + 2. Your guess is as good as mine.

Andromeda's Hero Has won only a Non graded stakes and is typically slower than most in here. Finished a beaten 3rd by 11 3/4 (5 horse field), 2nd by 7 and 8th by 7.5 and the famous phantom finish at OP 3rd by 8.3/4. Too slow and lucky if he completes a superfecta. Project him to be between +2 and +4.

Checkov MSW winner so far but obviously more has been expected especially for the $3.3MM purchase price. Cycling to new top in my opionon and Stevens keeps the faith. One of these dayshe will pop a big oneand Biancone\'s been on role lately. Project and in the $ finish at about -0.5 to +1.

Roman Ruler looked the part in last race. Expect further continued improvement albeit not major. Looks to be one of two coming in at peak form. Project anywhere from -2 to -1. To me he\'s the one to beat. Has Bailey in the saddle and the right running style for this one.

Don\'t get Mad last was a clunker for sure. Stevens chose Chekhov instead of this one. Project an improved effort here and lifetime top. May not be enough, unless the BIG 3 hook up early and often. Will play this one underneath but will play one ticket including this guy on top should the worst case scenario for the big three develop. I doubt they will run around Merry go round style like they did in the BC last year or this years Whitney. Project from a -0.5 to +1.

Reverberate still eligible for NW2. Looking for a check at best. Too slow for these. Project from +2 to +4. Good luck Sal.

Flower Alley Ran a career top off of a nice set up in race for that one. Already been beaten by RR two back. Tends to want to press pace but can\'t let BR get away easy either to have any kind of shot. Expect this one to press BR from half mile mark on. Let's see if he has stamina to get 10F. Also potential to regress off of latest top.


I see this race going one of three ways. Since you have 3 deep closers in this race and BR the only legit early speed, Scenario 1) BR on open and easy lead early with little pressure coming until the final turn. If that happens start going to the windows to cash your tickets for BR. Scenario 2) Flower Alley and  Reverberate stalk and press BR from the start or at least half mile pole with RR sitting just off them. RR runs them down the lane with BR/Chekhov and DGM and AH all potentially in the tri/super.
Scenario 3 least likely is that the Big three all hook up often and early and grind themselves into the ground. DGM will run them down deep stretch providing he best value scenario for gimmicks with BR/RR/Chekhov underneath.

I am betting both Scenario 2 and 3, with Win on RR at 3-1 or better and Exacta\'s & Tri's with RR/BR-DGM-Chekhov, then a small one with DGM/RR, BR, and Checkhov

Good luck to you all.

The Graveyard of Favorites lives for another day.

NC Tony

[TGJB]

Tony-- yeah, BR only has one neg 5. But the 2yo races were strong for a 2yo, and the first out at 3 better than anyone else here had run to that point in their career, by quite a bit. If the horse had bounced off that, and was coming into this race fresh for a layoff trainer, I would probably bet him WITHOUT the neg 5-- the zero alone would put him in this, and he\'s supposed to be better now than then.

I would also point out that Zito layoff popping with other horses aside, THIS horse has already run tops off a layoff twice, if you include his first out-- and the 3yo debut was a 15 length win where it\'s possible he could have run faster.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jerry,

I always knew you were a man of conviction. Unless you know more about this horses physical condition then me sitting here in NC,  I agree with the analysis about running new tops fresh but none of those were at 10F.  10F is the big question mark off the layoff  for me and he just might need one,while the other two are ready to run now (that we know). I do agree that Zito has them cranked earlier than he used to. Made a nice score with him last year with Birdstone on Bel day  the Travers last year using that scenario.

What I don\'t know at this point in time how the odds will play out. If BR goes at 2-1 or better it may be the best bet in quite some time. Somehow I just see him getting bet down below that by the Big Boys and the 10F he might hit the wall late.

I guess you are suggesting that I reconsider my last post and bet Scenario 1!!

His form is unlike GZ with planned rest. He seems to be ouchy.

Thanks for the additive info. Will be simulcasting tomorrow.

Is the Pick 4 as chalky as it appears?

NC Tony

PS Will you be up there duing the last weekend?

[TGJB]

Tony-- it turns out that I will not be up there Labor Day. And while there are some different circumstances, the two Birdstone layoff wins were at 1 1/4 and 1 1/2.

TGJB,

The one small problem I have with your layoff angle is that horses like Commentator (beating limited allowance horses), Sun King beating High Limit (who was also off the same layoff) and some others that came back successfully did so into relatively soft spots or at least reasonable spots for bringing a horse back.

Those kinds of layoffs aren\'t nearly as tough as coming back into a Grade 1 race against sharp horses of similar ability (at least according the ROI stats I have seen). Often, these kinds of horses are among the best \"bet againsts\" you will ever find in Grade 1 races.  

Granted Zito did it with Birdstone (thought the Belmont was more a matter of Smarty and others toasting each other). So maybe he\'s just so skilled at it you have to give him a little more of the benefit of the doubt relative to other highly skilled layoff trainers that generally fail at it, but I think you still have to consider it a negative because of all the circumstance.

1. BR has 1 huge effort (The Wood) and one very good effort (in Florida - I agree that that was pretty huge for that time of year), but both were under ideal conditions against pretty weak groups.

2. He was not laid off for a freshening. He was hurt.

3. Zito wasn\'t sure whether he was going to run 7F or 10F as recently as a few days ago. That doesn\'t sound like a man that was preparing a horse specifically for a 10F race. It sounds like a man that was getting his horse fit enough to run.

Anyway, I\'m not saying he has no chance or anything. My negative view is based on the premise that he\'ll be the favorite and I wouldn\'t want him as the favorite. At some price he\'s obviously more attractive and I would refrain from betting against him.  

[richiebee]

TGJB:
   
  With regards to Reverberate, the analysis states that he \"... ran a good one, bounced with trouble in the Belmont, and then returned to his best last time. There\'s nothing wrong with this pattern.\"

  Is it possible to take an alternative view, that after the disastrous start in the Belmont Santos didn\'t ask anything from Reverberate? Can you disregard the Belmont for the sake of pattern analysis? Is it realistic to say that he has run two new tops, pairing the new top in his last race?

  Reverberate\'s breeding is very solid for this race; his dad won the Travers and the Derby, and his dam sire won the BC Classic, all at 10f.

  Not a big field, but an interesting Travers. Only AH (too slow, too far back) and DGM (will be looking for the Twin Spires when he turns for home, won\'t see them) are not possible winners IMO.

[Wrongly]

People appear to think that the distance of 1 1/4 will be a problem for Bellamy Road.  I have to disagree, the horse has a very high cruising speed.  I saw this first hand at Gulfstream Park when Bellamy Road ran a nice Maria\'s Mon colt into the ground before the first turn.  Coming for home he was just rolling along.  The distance off the layoff won\'t be a problem.