ROTW

[HP]

I like Santa Candida a little.  I\'d play her to win and under Star Parade and Hollywood Story.  

Good luck.

HP

[Saddlecloth]

I dont like Star Parade nearly as much as tgraph did.  I dont think she is the same filly that she has been and she will be around 5/2.  In fact there is not much in here to add value unless you like the south american horse to improve, and that is a bit risky given the connections.

[jbelfior]

I\'ll use ALPHABET KISSES on top and hope for value to fill in the 2 hole. (Perhaps HOUSE OF FORTUNE will do better now that she\'s back at Hollywood.)

I agree that STAR PARADE is not the same filly and I\'ll toss. SANTA CANDIDA adds value and is not impossible with so many holes in here.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

The one problem I see with Star Parade is that she does her best running on the lead and generally has a tough time of it in the stretch when she doesn\'t get it. She won\'t have the lead with Alphabet Kisses in the race and if she tries to get it, it\'s likely to be costly late.



Post Edited (06-03-05 19:15)

[davidrex]

     House of fotune running 3rd race w/out gap...last o.p....last was 100k tuneup for this spot...take over star p.,h. story,santa c.,and of course closing argument.

     Watch out for them trolley cars, class!!

      PARTYpokerON!

[mikemd]

tough race.  i would usually go with alphabet kisses in here, but her and star parade appear to be need the lead horses.  i\'ll look toward the two outside horses and use andujar just because she has longer odds.  her only dirt was  a competitive number.

House of Fortune had quite an eventful trip last time out. She broke slowly was rushed up 3W into a moderately fast pace, was 3w the second turn and didn\'t weaken all that badly. Much better effort than it looks on paper. Could also sit a nice trip.



Post Edited (06-03-05 18:32)

[spa]

I really like Star Parade!!!!!!Holllywood Story for 2nd and will box 4 horses when they can be sorted out. Santa Candida will be one.

[Michael D.]

star parade - battled through :46 and 1:09 fractions while winning this race last year. excuses last two. nice post, decent weight, and fast #\'s at the distance.

santa candida - don\'t know

siphon honey - too slow at the distance.

house of fortune - last time solis was up she ran a \"1\" while winning a grade 2 (at this track, at this distance). the first start of the year was weak, but last was better. expecting a decent run. use in second and third spots.

alphabet kisses - too slow at the distance.

festival - no

andujar - first time o\'neill. from the real quiet family. pulled valdivia around the track last, and finished very well. potential here, but speculative as she needs to jump about three points.

hollywood story - bad draw and espinoza is no fan of saving ground. expecting a run in the \"2\" range, which might not be enough if she loses some ground.

i will have SP on top. HOF will be used underneath, as will HS but a bit less. my only saver on top is with andujar, as the odds will be decent and she might have some potential.

[J-DUB]

As the intro to the ROTW analysis alluded to,weight and ground loss are key elements in
T-Graph\'s numbers. When both clearly support
one entrant over another,along with the fastest number, it gives a competitive advantage to the horse in receipt of said elements. Is that not what we are looking for in trying to determine the most logical winner? There are other factors to be considered, of course, but I would think it is to  our benefit if a horse has the key ingredients in their favor.
 Star Parade may not win, but sure appears to have the T-Graph tangibles that would suggest she has a distinct advantage over the others.
Just my own personal rant.

[TGAB]

You know we put up a race of the week every week where either Jerry or I discuss form cycles, patterns reads, the value or non-value of the Thoro-Pattern--when to use it, when not to use it, how to use the TGI, dam stats, and or trainer tendencies as shown in the profiles for the given horses shown. Of course, the contenders dictate what topics get discussed but over time all the subjects mentioned above have been touched on.  

Also there are lots of times we discuss various patterns or TG data to inform because a particular horse(s) provides an opportunity to do so and while the relevant points may not be immediately beneficial, the particular horse may be too slow relatively to be a serious contender, the points and topics evoked may have relevance another day.    

Someone earlier in the week mentioned that a lot of non-performance figure talk dominates this board and they\'re almost afraid to steer the conversation to pattern, performance data related topics. This is the perfect time since all the data are up there, gratis.

JW--I agree thoroughly. Aside from SP\'s non-effort earlier in the year, she really has 1
figure since 2004 which at the weights and post make her a non-winner. So 7 of her 9 efforts in the last 18 months gives her a good shot at winning here. Pretty strong and she\'s not the favorite.  

[davidrex]

     Slight change of flight plans.

     House of Fortune over Star Parade....Hollywood Story...Alphabet Kisses.

     Kicking Santa Candida out of bed {bad trainer patterns...1st lasix,2nd lay,s/r,stk record,etc.} replacing w/Alphabet Kisses. At hollywood is roi positive,s/r good, j/t good,but mainly he shows up positive w/2nd lay at this track.

     And of course Closing Argument will once again be included!

     Keep an eye out for wooden nichels Uncle Buck!

     ct{m}c easy on the face paint...wouldn\'t want you turning into Stephen Kings\' favorite clown.

     Like a hollywood story..may alphabet kisses reign at your star parade all while nestled in your house of fortune.

     PARTYpokerON!

[J-DUB]

Alan,
Whenever you or Jerry and anyone else at TG give us a discussion about figure making, the
one constant talked about is weight and ground loss. It\'s always mentioned somewhere
and usually in the lead paragraph.From what little I know about it they are part of the \"basic\" premise of making figures and using those figures to pick a winner.

When I read your rotw comments the light bulb came on. So this is what they have been trying to get through our thick skulls all these years! The Milady appears to be the prime example for \"SEEING how weight and ground loss\" can affect the outcome of a \"particular\" race. To me the effect stands out like the proverbial @#!* in a punchbowl!

Just wanted to point this out and maybe others will see it also. The significance of these 2 factors has to be taken seriously in this race. To me, with the fact you mentioned about not even being the favorite, that\'s just another asset for SP. In this particular race her assets far out weigh her liabilities.
SP is the Thoro-Graph play if you believe in the methodology, even if she doesn\'t win.

Looking forward to the race.

[Saddlecloth]

A couple of more reason I dont like Star Parade, a filly who really wants to be on the lead to do her best she has not been able to make it there since July of last year against Pesci and Quero Quero.  I have always thought that losing a touch of speed is a sign of declining ability in older horses.

The thoro pattern is 76% to run an off race, now maybe an off of 3 would get it done, but at 3/1 or so no thanks.  

I also dont like valdivia, he will not have her on the pace given his propensity to ride everything like its a turf race.

[TGAB]

Saddlecloth, you have to be careful. Indeed the Thoro-Pattern says the off race chances are 36% and an X race 40%, which sums to 76% as you state. But those percentages are based on the top of 1-1/4. An off race in this context is anywhere from 2-1/2 to 4. Star Parade\'s last 2 are 3 and 3-1/4, off races, yes, both also efforts good enough to win here given the post and weight. Moreover I would point out the each 3 she\'s run has either been followed by another 3 or better. So where the line rubs you pessimistically, I opt for a half-full view.

The ROTW is almost always a stakes race and as such we look at top efforts horses run and project whether they\'ll repeat, improve or regress, the emphasis being on tops. But one thing to remember and I must say I\'m guilty of forgetting quite often, is that horses ususally don\'t run tops or new tops. Of course young horses are capable of jumping up at any time and we expect them too since they are developing. And we expect top efforts out of stakes horses because they\'re quality equines able to hold their form and run at the highest echelons of performance. That\'s what makes them stakes animals. But even the stakes performers eventually reach a peak off which they regress and then cycling behavior starts.

Look at the horses in this race. Excluding Santa Candida, who lacks US race experience, only one of the other seven comes in off a  new top, Andujar. Now Hollywood Story and Alphabet Kisses got back to their tops last time, but the former has the conditions against her and and has had opportunities to break through many times before. The latter may break through but concedes weight to Star Parade, isn\'t as fast, and has a better chance according to Thoro-Pattern or pairing or running worse. She does have youth on her side, but 7-2?

Sorry, Star Parade is much more solid and has a better chance at 3-1 of running her race and winning than the other 2.