ROTW

[HP]

Jimbo,

I started this thread and posted my pick.  Did not mention HoF.  Threw her out.  This is not past posting.

The Thoro-Pattern for HoFortune is right on.  She had almost no chance to run a new top or pair.  

Sorry you lost, but don\'t take it out on me.

Class & Michael D,

Look, the horse ran a 1 in June 2004.  Her previous top was a zero.  

That one in June 2004 killed her.  Two months later she ran a 3.  Two months after she ran a 6.  Three and half months later she ran a 12.  Since then she\'s paired 5\'s.  It\'s a total \"cripple\" line.  She\'s come NOWHERE near her top in a YEAR.  That\'s not what healthy horses do.

I would have to agree with Michael; I have made worse \"stabs\" at 7-1.  Still in this field I threw her out at first glance, given the total picture TG gives of her past year.

Class,

Her last was BAD relative to her best efforts.  You can watch replays till your eyes fall out of your head, she ran a FIVE.  That\'s BAD for a top 4yo relative to a ONE as a 3yo (remember that long thread about year to year improvement -- as in this horse has NONE).  

I give the TG number the most weight.  You don\'t.  That\'s basically what this boils down to.  

HP

[Saddlecloth]

Well kinda went like I thought, that an outsider would win, the top two fillies, one past thier prime, the other with a weight, post and style disadvantage.

I cant believe that filly was 7/1, I think even TGAB was thinking she would be much lower and 7/1 was perfectly playable in that field.  Star Parade has no gas in the tank, will keep betting against her.

I am happy for the owners as they are friends of mine, and they had a purchase in february that broke down so this was a bit of a consolation.

J-DUB

>Is it her (star Parade) running style, too one paced, or competition that makes it tough on her?<

If you view horses as being able to run an \"X\" speed figure regardless of it\'s position etc... IMO, you will never appreciate certain things.

IMHO, the numbers horses earn are primarily the result of ability. However, they are also the result of running style, pace, the competitive nature of the race, position,  stamina, race development etc...

IMHO, in marginal situations, when you find a horse that typically only wins when it gets the lead, you have to discount its chances a bit when you know it won\'t get the lead because they tend not to win even if it looks like they have a slight edge in the figures.



Post Edited (06-05-05 12:11)

[jimbo66]

Fair enough HP.  I thought you were referring to the entire race when you said \"T-Graph got it right\".  They were certainly right about H of F and it was a bad bet by me.  My original post was the proper move for me, which was to skip the race.  I didn\'t like Hollywood Story but thought Star Parade was off form.  I couldn\'t find the right alternative.

The race that kills me yesterday was the Acorn.  Anybody catch that?  Round Pound had a nice pattern as I posted in that thread and I thought she was a use, but I keyed In the Gold, with Round Pound and Smuggler.  In the Gold rallies by the entire field and takes the lead in the stretch, race over.  I was actually doing the math as to how much I was going to get back on my exactas. Then the horse stops about 50 yards before the wire, letting BOTH Smuggler and RP rally back past her.  It couldn\'t have been 1 of the 2, but BOTH had to rally past her.  RAces like that make me want to give up on this game.....

I haven\'t checked yet in the redboard room, but I would bet that T-Graph had Round Pound, as she looked fast, consistent and 60 percent to pair up for run a new top.  Tough to like her at 2-1 in the win pool, for me.

HP,

>Her last was BAD relative to her best efforts. You can watch replays till your eyes fall out of your head, she ran a FIVE.<

I think Jerry would agree with me that losing a couple of lengths at the start is worth an adjustment of some kind in this case.

I am saying that rushing up after breaking slowly into a moderately fast pace 3W is worth more than just the ground loss.

You might not agree with that.

So I suggest that when watching route races in the future you make special note of horses that get left at the start and then rush up wide into contention on the first turn in a moderately fast or fast pace and see how they finish relative to expectations (examine speed figures too).

I am certain that after you make note of a few dozen horses like that, you\'ll see what I mean.

You viewed her as a horse with possible problems that ran a 5 last time out.

I viewed her as a horse with possible  problems that ran the eqivalent of about a  2 last time out.    

I think there is a lot of value in recognizing potential physical problems. That was the case here and I think TG did a great job in noting that.

However, she was trained by McAnally, was working well, improved off the freshening when you understand her last effort better, and was 7-1.

If she was 2-1, had actually run as poorly as a 5, and was trained by a bumb, (or some combination like that) I probably would have boxed 4 horses to beat her.

Jimbo,

The 2-1 kept me off Pound Round.

I wanted to bet against Splendid Blendid in the worst way (she actually ran pretty well).

DavidRex,  

>is there some exotic gimmick that I could have won some cash because she ran well last time out?<

LOL.

No one was going to beat the winner anyway.

From my perspective, I prefer ripping up tickets while still being confident I understood the situation correctly.

She was vulnerable to her physical problems, but we were getting 7-1 (not 5-2) and her last race was better than it looks. It\'s at ticket I don\'t mind trashing. :-)

[HP]

Class,

If I thought she ran a 2 last out (with some kind of an adjustment) I would have thrown her out as well.  Two is about her top, and I would\'ve bet against her pairing it, given her previous history and the fact that it took her a YEAR to get back to it.

HP

[JR]

I\'m a TG player, so I don\'t know what kind of numbers the Sheets had for the race, but a guy I know who plays California and is a Sheets player, said this would be \"Andujar\'s coming out party\" and he was pretty right. I think first time O\'Neill meant as much to him as anything else.

[richiebee]

Jimbo:
 \"Races like that make me want to give up on this game...\"

  My calculations were simpler than yours. Large win bet on In the Gold, maybe the sluggish break cost her the race. And it was great to watch Rick Porter, who I killed all winter for his handling of Rockport Harbor, lead his filly into the winner\'s circle...

  I give up on the game every Sunday afternoon, will be right back at it by post time at Belmont Wednesday...

  Speaking of Belmont, lack of posts on the board concerning the big race Saturday pretty
much tell the story... a potential 10 horse field with only 2 Grade I winners, not very inspiring.

[J-DUB]

Class,
I really thought she would lay right behind AK and move on bt in the stretch. Andujar put and end to that strategy real quick. Bad assumption on my part.
I get what you mean about being taken out of their normal style but thought she had a tremendous edge in post and weight that SP could lay in behind and a make a run.
Thanks for the insight.

[J-DUB]

richiebee,
I think everyone is trying to figure out who will run 2nd,3rd,4th. Believe the winner might be low odds. Then again at least 9 others think different.

HP,

\"If I thought she ran a 2 last out (with some kind of an adjustment) I would have thrown her out as well. Two is about her top, and I would\'ve bet against her pairing it, given her previous history and the fact that it took her a YEAR to get back to it.\"

Understood.

I\'m a little less willing to toss horses on tops or near tops except in certain circumstances.

[HP]

Class,

FILLIES ESPECIALLY get tossed off tops, unless they\'ve shown they can hold their form...or unless they haven\'t bounced yet.  HoF fails on both counts.  

HP

[davidrex]

     Well put H.P.,now add to the formula that she was off poorly[a first for her],and what I bet was an ouchy hoss ..a year removed from her top...last was easier spot...

     Or as the guy who cashed this race uttered to us on the way out of the track \"see ya later suckers!\"

     PARTYpokerON!