ROTW

[jimbo66]

Saddlecloth,

Couldn\'t agree more, you wrote what I was just planning to write.

Besides the obvious, like declining figures, one of the bigger signs of a horse being off form or declining is when the horse usually shows great natural speed and has suddenly lost it.  This describes Star Parade.  She looks like a filly off form to me.  When she was right, she was on the lead immediately after the gates opened.  

Even if she gets out of the gate today, she will be pressed hard by Alphabet Kisses, who ran a 43 and change half last time out.

Unfortunately, with a swift pace likely and Star Parade looking a little off, it looks like a race to skip, unless you can find a reason to believe that House of Fortune will run one of her good ones.  If the pace is quick and they string out early, I don\'t think Hollywood Story is in for as much ground loss as Allan/Jerry suggest in the ROTW.

Although I agree with J-Dub, that if you are betting T-Graph methodology, you have to like Star Parade.  I just think there are other factors here to consider.

Speaking of T-Graph methodology, looking at the figures for the Belmont next week, Giacomo looks like a possible pattern play off of paired up \"0\"\'s.  Although, I couldn\'t play him with a wooden nickel, as I am having trouble accepting either figure.

Jimbo,

\"unless you can find a reason to believe that House of Fortune will run one of her good ones.\"

Watch the replay of her last race.

She ran a very good one last time out. It\'s just not apparent in her speed figures. She got left at the start and rushed up hard and wide into a slightly faster than average pace. That was a really tough pace trip. Yet she held well.

[Saddlecloth]

jim,

thats the way I saw it, certainly given the field 3/1 fits on star parade but I just would like to go somewhere else but there is no where for me.  I will root for Andujar as a friend of mine is a part owner.

[J-DUB]

I kind of like the fact that SP can run an off race and still have a good chance to win.
It\'s not as much that SP has such an advantage going in but she doesn\'t have to do
anything out of the ordinary to win. The others have to do something very extraordinary to get the win.
They have to run much faster than they usually do. That\'s a big obstacle to overcome.

[spa]

Jimbo, if you\'ve got the winner and the second horse.....and go 4 deep in the superfecta ....isn\'t that a great betting opp ? My thinking is Star Parade/Hollywood Story and box Santa Candida/House of Fortune/Alphabet Kisses/Andujar.........

[jimbo66]

Spa,

We all have different definitions of a great betting opportunity.  Taking the first two favorites in the top two slots of the super, with 4 other horses in the next two slots, including the 3rd, 4th and 5th choices, is not the type of bet I would make, especially in an 8 horse field.  But good luck anyway.

I watched the replay that Class suggested and it does give a possible reason for House of Fortune to run better today.  Since the horse has sucked me in before many times, including the Oaks last year, I will probably use her again.  Maybe with Star Parade in a box.  Plus a win bet on HofF.

Jimbo,

I hope I didn\'t screw you up, but I do think her last race wasn\'t bad. :-)

[Michael D.]

awesome..... she\'s from the family of real quiet, top and bottom. she might jump right to the top of the older female division (considering madcap escapade, ashado, and society selection are on top right now)....

hey mikemd - you must have this one pretty good?



Post Edited (06-04-05 20:26)

[HP]

We just had a long thread about year to year development...  Four year olds that have come nowhere near their 3yo tops are really bad bets (HoFortune).  

No amount of trouble can explain why a horse can run one tops as a three year old and can\'t break a five as a 4yo.  They are supposed to be getting better, and you shouldn\'t give them too many excuses.  Three four year old races is enough to see what\'s going on.  As the analysis said, \"there is clearly something wrong.\"  

The Thoro-pattern analysis is also dead on.

HP

Jimbo,

Pretty dreadful performance by House of Fortune.  


I\'m a little surprised that she didn\'t run better. This was her 3rd race without a training interruption. She was working well between races and her last was race better than the previous one (off a freshening).

I still think her last was better than it looks. Oh well.

The winner was impressive.

HP,

I agree that there was clearly something wrong with HOF in the Oct/Jan races. No doubt about that.

The April comeback was also mediocre, but her last was much better than any speed figure alone could possibly capture. You would have to watch the race and be very familiar with what that kind of trip takes away from a horse\'s ability to reproduce its top figure. It is an extremely rough trip to break slowly and rush up 3W into a slightly faster than average pace. She ran very well last time out even though it doesn\'t look like it from the speed figure.

Given this was her 3rd off a freshening and she was working very well since the last, I don\'t think it was any lock that this 4YO filly couldn\'t recover her best form here. IMO, she had practically done it last time out.

Of course in hindsight she was so darn dreadful yesterday that something is obviously still wrong.

It was a gamble that she wouldn\'t go backwards again, but the IMHO the key was in at least recognizing that she ran very well last time.

[jimbo66]

HP,

Yes, NOW it is easier to talk about H of F.  

Thoro-pattern was not DEAD ON in this race.  

Star Parade ran a very bad 3rd.  If that is what you call being dead-on, you have low standards for performance.  (unless you were specifically referring to H of F only, and not the race)

Andjuar was a throwout on T-Graph and won like a champ.  Not dead-on.

[J-DUB]

Impressive indeed!
Looked like a horse that has finally figured out what running is all about. A very solid effort which could be a sign that theres better things to come for her. Star Parade was no match and just doesn\'t have anything in the tank for the stretch, as a few of you guys suggested--- good call. When you can\'t take advantage of your weight and position, I guess you just may not be good enough. Is it her running style, too one paced, or competition that makes it tough on her?
Anyway, thanks to AB & JB for providing the ROTW analysis and their insights every week. I find it interesting and informative and as TGAB said, it\'s gratis!

[Michael D.]

hp,
in hindsight, HOF\'s last should have been a warning. the trip wasn\'t that bad, and the \"5\" was too slow. still, i don\'t think that was such a bad stab at 7-1. she got a bad trip yesterday, steadied around the first turn, then in tight around the second. they made AK 7-2, and she was simply too slow. she had a tough trip too, but two previous runs in the \"6\" range at the distance with perfect trips. how in the world was she going to win this race? the favorite was also too short. espinoza got a nice trip from the eight hole - the only reason why she got second (cost me some money). the only good play in that race was taking a strong stand on a horse that needed to jump three points. not an easy one.

[davidrex]

     Class,

I bet her this time...is there some exotic gimmick that I could have won some cash because she ran well last time out?

Bet her on back class hoping she would improve to a # couple points off proven top...she quit like a pig when it counted most,so your consolation knowing she ran a dependable last race is more a flaw in the way we saw the race...not some hope for the future.

Many pattern sheet players saw this filly as a sucker bet.Unfortuneatly we fell for what could have been.

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