ROTW - Preakness

Between the complications of extreme pace, rough trips, a track on which it certainly  wasn\'t advantageous to be inside, and the few clinkers that often occur on Derby day by horses that then rebound, the race was a mess.

My take on the Preakness is that you should more or less throw out the Derby performance for virtually everyone that ran poorly, but give credit to anyone you believe ran a new top that day.

The analysis from there should just be adjusted for the fact that the race is 1/16 of a mile shorter (which could be slightly advantageous to a few horses that were more suspect at 10F) and for the fact that there is less quality speed, no pure rabbit, and there will certainly be a hightened sensitivity to pace by the jocks considering the fiasco in KY.

These factors will certainly help a few horses in Maryland that had little chance in KY going in.  

In no special order.

IMO, despite an advantageous trip, Giacomo did improve a bit and run fairly well in the Derby. He had a great workout line coming into the race and was disadvantaged by the pace/trip in a few races in CA. So it was not shocking to me to see him run a little better. It was shocking to me to see ALL the faster horses either not run well or get caught up in the pace and allow him to win.    

I believe Closing Argumemt also ran a career best - which was also not unexpected due to the interruptions to his training leading into the BG. He may have even been 1 race short of his best in the Derby. I didn\'t like him at 10F in a race that looked like it would develop the way it did, but he shocked me. He was fairly close to that fast pace very early before dropping back a bit and finishing OK. He ran a new speed figure top. It was a very good performance.

I will evaluate virtually everyone else out of the Derby using my opinions of their ability off prior races.

IMO, that makes horses like High Fly and Greely\'s Galaxy very tough.

I think 10F was not the optimum distance for Afleet Alex. So I think he will appreciate the slightly shorter distance. That makes him a contender (but a probable underlay).

High Limit will be helped dramatically if he can secure the lead or a stalking position off some cheap speed and the fractions are average. Pluse the shorter distance can\'t hurt.

I didn\'t think Noble Causway was as good as High Fly going into the Derby, (the FL Derby was a fast pace and he couldn\'t beat him). He didn\'t do much running in the Derby. So I\'ll have to pass unless the price is huge.

I have no idea what\'s going on with Sun King, but I\'ll also have to pass unless the price is huge despite the fact that he has shown flashes.    

Scrappy T had a nice easy pace scenario in his last against weaker horses, but he has some ability.

I expect an honestly run Preakness from a pace perspective. There are enough speed/pressers in the race to keep the fractions honest. I can\'t imagine things getting out of hand again because everyone will be thinking about the Derby. It\'s actually probably more likely that everyone falls asleep and allows someone like High Limit (who few are taking seriously) to get the lead and dictate the fractions - which would be the optimum scenario for him (a complete reversal of the last race).

This race is all about price.

IMHO, it\'s a wide open Preakness.



Post Edited (05-19-05 11:35)

[RICH]

I like SCRAPPY T, and i like the 3/4 pt top off the one 2 back, 3rd race in form cycle yields a new top on saturday. Hopefully enough to win it, most certainly my key in exotics.

[jbelfior]

From a pace perspective, CH is probably correct.

It should not be the type of pace that throws the numbers out of whack. That being said, some interpretation is still required.

SUN KING has achieved his better numbers at 1 1/16th or less. So far the longer he goes, the lower his number becomes. Yes he did run over a dead rail, but I doubt very much that he would have sustained his run even if he was on the better part of the track. This horse is and always was overrated and has never given any hints that he is capable of running Grade 1 numbers over a classic distance.

HIGH LIMIT-- Will obviously be a pace factor. Now it becomes a question of how much do you excuse his dead last performance due to the rail and his cuts.

This is probably HIGH FLY\'s race to lose. Inside speed, can track and pounce, and may be set to improve again. Will probably be overbet, however. Fair odds are 6-1, I\'m thinking he may be 7/2 or 4-1.

The Derby was such a grueling race that I will toss AFLEET ALEX (who should be given a rest) and CLOSING ARGUMENT who ran the race of his life off of very little seasoning.

I\'ll take a stab that WILKO is set for a career best (I am concerned over the bleeding through the lasix) and I\'ll get nearly 15-1 to find out. Use with HIGH FLY and hope for the best.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

Joe,

I forget to mention Wilko. I don\'t like him as much as some of the others, but I see no reason he can\'t run well.

Right now I\'m also leaning a little towards High Fly as the most probable winner. (not sure what the right price is or if we will get it). His Derby was fine and I thought his Fl Derby was better than it looks considering he sat right off a fast pace and finished well. He should get a good trip here and will probably like this distance better than 10F. If the prices are decent I\'ll probably use him, Greeley, and CA.

I think AA is a good and consistent horse that will appreciate a slightly shorter race, but at 5-2 IMO you have to try to beat him.



Post Edited (05-19-05 15:40)

[beyerguy]

Most places Wilko wouldn\'t even be allowed to race, I think I\'ll pass.  Why is he allowed to race in only two weeks after bleeding through Lasix, anyway?

[jbelfior]

What\'s the ruling, if any, on that?

Would Dollase run him back so soon if the bleeding was significant?


I think you have to put some faith in the trainer on this one.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Saddlecloth]

but beyer, it was only a \"little\" blood.

i have always been on this guy but I think its time for me to find a new ship.  

I still think there is a fast pace in here, to many horses have a natural style up front.  I think the best of the E/P types is High Fly, but I have serious concerns that this distance is to far.  Greelys Galaxy looks like the wise guy horse and it would not shock me to see him at 7/1 or so.  Maybe this is a race to take a flyer on a horse who did not run at all, like a Noble Causeway.

beyerguy wrote:

> Most places Wilko wouldn\'t even be allowed to race, I think
> I\'ll pass.  Why is he allowed to race in only two weeks after
> bleeding through Lasix, anyway?

[jimbo66]

Saddlecloth,

I am with you on the pace of this race.  Not sure why everybody thinks the jockey \"awareness\" of speed after the Derby, will impact this race more than the actual running styles of the horses.

Going Wild has to go to the front.  He isn\'t a \"rabbit\", but he might as well be one.  High Limit gets blinkers and Frankel probably realizes after two races of \"rating\", this horse wants/needs the lead.  Scrappy T. is coming out of an elongated sprint and has speed.  Galloping Grocer has natural speed, and could be on or pressing the lead.  Then you have Greeley\'s Galaxy and High Fly who do their best running right off the lead, pressing.  Closing Argument maybe right off them.

Plenty of gas in this race.

For me, I will split my tickets on this one.  For half of them, I will stand by Jerry\'s negative 2 on Greeley\'s Galaxy in Illinois and throw out his Derby, looking for a big race.  The other half, I will be stubboron with Noble Causeway, as I liked him after the Florida Derby, thought he was almost fast enough with a top of \"1\" and if the speed gets too crazy, maybe he closes well this and runs his race.

[BitPlayer]

I agree that the pace could be a little hotter than people expect.  From the 2 hole, with a lot of decent speed between him and the two flyers on the outside (High Limit and Going Wild), Bailey will probably put High Fly into the race early to avoid getting shuffled back.  Given High Fly\'s natural speed, High Limit and Going Wild are then going to have to hustle if they want to clear him going into the first turn.  Things could snowball from there (despite the hot Derby pace being fresh in the jockeys\' minds).

jimbo,

\" Not sure why everybody thinks the jockey \"awareness\" of speed after the Derby, will impact this race more than the actual running styles of the horses.\"

I think so because a few of the speeds are not one dimensional. They can sit just off it. The other reason is that I\'ve seen this pattern of pace reversal before. Everyone that has a horse than can sit just off will be under instructions to not be suicidal.

[jimbo66]

class,

I am surprised to see your view on this, since you were dubbed the \"pace martyr\" in the past...  

Seriously though, I agree on pace reversals in general, but High Limit and Going Wild have outside posts and no shot to win without the lead.  THey are not \"horses that can sit off\", especially with the blinkers on High Limit.

At this point I see Going Wild as so terrible if I were riding High Limit I\'d try to get a trip similar to the one he got in the Blue Grass.

If GW wants the lead I\'d let him have it, sit just off him, let him collapse on his own and then take over. If GW doesn\'t break well or doesn\'t get aggressive I\'d go.

I think everyone else is capable of sitting just off those two without forcing the issue.

I felt much differently about it when Spanish Chestnut was in the race specifically to set a fast pace and Bellamy Road was another high quality speed in the mix. In a race like that, there was so much darn speed and an even bigger field trying to get and maintain position. I couldn\'t see any way the pace wasn\'t hot.

Probably a good way to look at the Preakness pace is to assume it will either be mildly fast or neutral and focus on horses that can deal with either of those. I can\'t see them crawling and I can\'t see another suicide mission.



Post Edited (05-19-05 17:36)

[mikemd]

i really have no faith in the morning line on this race so my actual interest will likely change dramatically.

that being said.

i\'m taking a big stand against afleet alex.  i do have him as my most likely winner, but nowhere near 5/2.  he\'s 1/5 over a mile.  terrible post.  if he wins at 5/2-3/1, then i\'ll just give congrats to spa for touting him since the derby.

i\'ll be spreading far and wide in this race in the pick four.  somewhat lighter on high fly and closing argument.  somewhat heavier on greeley\'s galaxy and scrappy t.

[spa]

As I line up the chairs on the deck of the Titanic, only one horse comes to mind...Afleet Alex will win the race. If you hate your money bet against him. The derby trip was much worse than reported. I\'m taking what is a given and will try to hit the super with a 5 horse box.

On the question of pace: I do not believe in the concept of pace handicapping.  If a horse runs within himself and does not initiate oxygen debt, he\'ll run forever.

[dlf]

I like Alex a lot, but I like to bet against horses in the Preakness who tired in the stretch in the Derby after having had the lead. Lion Heart, Peace Rules and Congaree come to mind as recent examples (although they were all closer to the pace then Alex)

LH and Peace Rules barely hung on for 4th at Pimlico. I think Alex may do something similar....then he\'ll come back and win the Haskell.